Sportsbook Rankings vs. ECR Wars | Week 9

by Elliott Troop · Betting & Props

Fast forward to May. The NFL Draft is in the books, and the news cycle is on life support. You’ve had to talk to your family. Maybe even go to the in-laws for dinner. Maybe you’ve started a new hobby. Still, there will be a deep yearning. A yearning for this Week 9 slate that features the likes of Carson Wentz, Gardner Minshew, Drew Lock, Shedeur Sanders, and Joe Milton. We’ve already had Joe Fagnano, who I recently learned didn’t have a three-episode arc in Season 3 of The Sopranos. You don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone. 

In this column, the premise is simple. I highlight the biggest discrepancies between sportsbooks and expert consensus rankings. One player at every position. 

Before we get into this week’s players, let’s take a look at how last week went down. I highlighted: 

Kyler Murray – Experts win

Kyren Williams – Sportsbooks win

Tre Tucker – Sportsbooks win

Chigoziem Okonkwo – Sportsbooks win 

Well, the sportsbooks took it to the experts, like Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars took it to the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. They went 3-1 to win the week. The scores for the season:

Sportsbooks: 3

Experts: 3

Tie: 2

On to Week 9.

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Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings

Tyler Shough | QB, New Orleans Saints

Sportsbook rank: QB9

Expert consensus rank: QB14

If you take the 1.84-fantasy-point effort against the Minnesota Vikings out, Tyler Shough would be averaging 21.8 fantasy points per game. That would rank as the QB3 on a per-game basis. Alas, you cannot bend the numbers to your will. Shough is the QB14 in PPG.

Tyler Shough’s Advanced Metrics

In the two games Shough has played against defenses ranking among the 10 toughest in fantasy points to quarterbacks, Shough recorded under two points against the Vikings and 14 points against the Steelers. The Saints face the Browns in Week 9. Across eight weeks, the Browns are giving up just 13.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That’s the seventh-fewest of all teams. There are some caveats, though. Cleveland’s stingy numbers against quarterbacks may be a result of the competition they’ve faced. The Browns have faced a litany of backups and underperforming quarterbacks, including the likes of Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Tyler Huntley and Cam Ward. 

While left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is likely to return, it remains to be seen if Shough is a set-and-forget quarterback or a flat-track bully. The sportsbooks aren’t treating the Browns as a tough matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They have Shough ranked inside the top 10, suggesting they see plenty of upside in this spot.

Chuba Hubbard | RB, Carolina Panthers

Sportsbook rank: RB15

Expert consensus rank: RB5

Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers offense were one of the biggest stories of the early season. Young ranked as the QB3 through four weeks. He appeared set to be a locked-in starter in the NFL for years to come. But form is fickle, and a familiar barrage of questions about the Panthers’ offensive ceiling with Young as the starter began to resurface. In the last two weeks, the Panthers have averaged just 260 yards of offense — that’s down from 406 yards in the first four weeks of the season. 

Against the backdrop of question marks around Young, Chuba Hubbard has been a remarkably consistent fantasy asset. Hubbard is the RB6 in PPG and has proved to be one of the steals of fantasy drafts. However, the books aren’t so hot on Hubbard this week. They have him as the RB15. This feels a little surprising to me. The Broncos defense has been solid, but the data doesn’t suggest this is a matchup that should temper expectations for your running backs. They are giving up the 10th-most rushing yards per game. They’re also allowing the 10th-highest EPA per rush. 


Perhaps the rationale behind the sportsbook ranking can be found in the Bryce Young question. The Broncos are blitzing at the 10th-highest rate. Young ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback when blitzed vs 10th in EPA per dropback when he isn’t blitzed. The books have the Panthers’ implied total at 21 points, which ranks 20th among all teams. It’s clear, then, that Hubbard’s ranking is linked to another potential Panthers offensive struggle. 

Keenan Allen | WR, Indianapolis Colts

Sportsbook rank: WR23

Expert consensus rank: WR29

Despite the endless vague-posting from a litany of NFL insiders (Adam Schefter, I’m looking at you), at the time of publishing both Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs remain in the fantasy football wasteland otherwise known as the Indianapolis Colts. 

Through eight weeks, the Colts have been a complete dumpster fire. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, only Justin Herbert, Baker Mayfield and Tanner McKee have a lower EPA per play than Daniel Jones. Still, Keenan Allen has been Jones’ favorite target. Sure, that’s like being the captain of the Titanic. But we take what scraps we can get our hands on in Week 9. 


In four of his last five outings, Allen — a fantasy football vampire — has recorded at least seven targets. In that timeframe, he’s averaging close to 13 fantasy points per game. The down-and-out Colts get the reeling Cowboys, who completely disintegrated against the Cardinals in Week 8. The Dallas buffet defense has proven a happy hunting ground for wide receivers — they are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the position across the first eight weeks. Allen has a receiving-yard total of 50.5, which ranks 21st among all receivers, while his 5.5-reception line is tied for seventh among wide receivers.

Sam LaPorta | TE, Detroit Lions

Sportsbook rank: TE9

Expert consensus rank: TE5

There was a prevailing narrative over the summer that Sam LaPorta‘s stock was on the rise after the Lions hired Drew Petzing, the architect of Arizona’s just-chuck-it-to-Trey-McBride offense. That proved true through the first five weeks of the season. LaPorta averaged 15.3 fantasy points, 63.2 yards, and 7.4 targets per game, and he scored three total touchdowns. 

Coming out of the Week 6 bye after some ill-judged comments on Pardon My Take, LaPorta is averaging 4.65 fantasy points, 25.5 yards, and 3.5 targets per game, with no touchdowns. This downturn in target volume has coincided with Jameson Williams gaining a more prominent role in the Lions offense. The Lions head down to Miami in Week 9. The Dolphins are giving up 19.2 fantasy points per game to tight ends, allowing seven receptions a game in addition to nearly one touchdown per game to the position.


Although the Lions defense has improved in the last two weeks (sure, one of those was against Kyler Murray), they will be without Jack Campbell. This could allow the Dolphins, who have improved offensively in the last few weeks, to move the ball and keep the game close. In turn, this would keep the Lions moving the ball throughout the game rather than running the clock down. Despite the favorable matchup for LaPorta, the books believe the competition for targets will continue to cap LaPorta’s upside. 

Elliott Troop is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.

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