On the Rise | Underdog ADP Movers

by Edward DeLauter · Featured
New Underdog ADP risers Edward DeLauter

With NFL free agency coming to a close and the NFL about a month away, average draft positions (ADP) on Underdog Best Ball are coalescing. Below are some players who have surged up the draft board over the past month. Are they players to embrace or fade at their new ADP?

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Quarterback

Kyler Murray | QB, Minnesota Vikings

  • Up 29.3 picks in ADP
  • From: Late round 12
  • To: Mid round 10

After his release from the Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray signed with the Minnesota Vikings and is anticipated to displace J.J. McCarthy as their starter. This opportunity is the impetus for his ADP rise. Murray hasn’t really looked the same since he tore his ACL and meniscus in Week 14 of 2022. He is also coming off the worst fantasy season of his career, as he averaged only 16.2 fantasy points per game (FPPG) last season.

However, we have seen this story before of Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell rehabilitating the careers of veteran quarterbacks.  Murray is surrounded by the best supporting cast of his entire career with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. He is a priority in drafts even with this rise in ADP, as you can still get differentiation on the field by stacking Murray with other Vikings.

Malik Willis | QB, Miami Dolphins

  • Up 25.5 picks in ADP
  • From: Early round 13
  • To: Late round 10

Malik Willis signed with the Miami Dolphins, and his ADP rose almost three full rounds. He is a free agency winner and is locked in as the Dolphins’ starter. Unfortunately, there is little supporting cast around him now that Jaylen Waddle was shipped off to Denver. While the Dolphins will likely add a receiver in the draft, Willis is a hard click at his new cost. While he has the rushing ability to pay off at ADP, the ceiling is hard to see. That said, he still makes for a good selection if you get stuck at quarterback, as there are a plethora of late-round stacking options thanks to the ambiguity of the Dolphins receiver room.

Running Back

David Montgomery | RB, Houston Texans

  • Up  36.3 picks in ADP
  • From: Early round 10
  • To: Late round 6

David Montgomery was one of my favorite clicks to start this drafting season. However, after his trade to the Houston Texans, Monty’s ADP now places him in the sixth round, which is a tad too steep. He smells like a “dead zone” running back, as his ADP rise is due to a perceived increase in touches. Montgomery’s new teammate, Woody Marks, will likely siphon off receiving opportunities. Montgomery is a touchdown-fueled bet on an offense that was near the bottom of the league in total touchdowns last season. The Texans’ offense would need to revert to its 2024 form for the former Lion to score double-digit touchdowns and pay off at his current ADP. He is an easy fade at his new cost.

Mike Washington Jr. | RB, Rookie

  • Up 88.7 picks in ADP
  • From: Mid round 19
  • To: Early round 12

Mike Washington melted faces at the combine. He blazed with a 4.33 40-yard dash while weighing 223 pounds. His 126.9 Speed Score is best in class, and his 92nd percentile, 130.3 Burst Score is nearly as impressive. The 22-year-old former Arkansas Razorback has generated a lot of Day 2 talk—thanks to his stellar combine—which has fueled an astronomical rise in ADP. Still only a Round 12 pick on Underdog, it’s easy to speculate and click on Washington as your RB4 with the hopes he winds up in a nuts landing spot come the 2026 NFL Draft in April.

Bhayshul Tuten | RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Up 20.6 picks in ADP
  • From: Mid round 7
  • To: Late round 5

Travis Etienne‘s departure from Jacksonville makes Bhayshul Tuten a free agency winner. Underdog drafters have driven Tuten’s ADP up to the late fifth round with the hopes of securing Jacksonville’s RB1 at a RB23 price. However, with the Jaguars also bringing in grinder Chris Rodriguez, and scatback LeQuint Allen still on the roster, there is a possibility that this backfield is an ugly three-back committee rather than squarely in Tuten’s possession. The upside of Tuten doesn’t make him a full fade at this ADP, but I wouldn’t want much more than 8% exposure at his current cost.

Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore | WR, Buffalo Bills

  • Up 31.5 picks in ADP
  • From Late round 8
  • To: Early round 6

The Bears shipped D.J. Moore out of Chicago to Buffalo just before the start of free agency. Moore is now set to play with the best quarterback talent of his career in Josh Allen. Entering his age-29 season and coming off a down year, Moore has bust potential. However, he is still a player I’d be eager to take at his current ADP with him set as the WR1 in an Allen-led offense. At his sixth-round price, you can easily have a hero-RB build with Moore as your 4th wide receiver, or even lean into the uncertainty and select him as your WR2. Any way you slice is Moore is a fine pick at his new ADP.

Mike Evans | WR, San Francisco 49ers

  • Up 17.2 picks in ADP
  • From: Late round 6
  • To: Early round 5

Mike Evans is set to play the first season of his 11-year career outside of Tampa Bay after signing a one-year deal with the San Francisco 49ers. He has the inside track to be the 49ers’ WR1. The only concerns about Evans at his ADP are his age and health. Evans is entering his age-33 season, where production can rapidly decline. He has also missed 14 games over the last two campaigns. With the specter of Father Time looming and surrounded by other intriguing options at his new ADP, Evans is a reluctant fade for me.

Romeo Doubs | WR, New England Patriots

  • Up 29.7 picks in ADP
  • From: Mid round 12
  • To: Early round 10

The Patriots signed Romeo Doubs to a contract with $39 million guaranteed. He is in line to replace Stefon Diggs‘ role on the offense. In the first four seasons of his career, Doubs has failed to crest a 20% target share, as Diggs did with the Pats in 2025. It remains likely that the Patriots add another wide receiver to the room with either a trade for A.J. Brown or the selection of a rookie wideout. Even though he is going outside the top 100 picks, Doubs is really a player I’m only interested in selecting if I’m looking to stack him with Drake Maye.

Tight End

Isaiah Likely | TE, New York Giants

  • Up 21.7 picks in ADP
  • From: Late round 15
  • To: Late round 13

Isaiah Likely signed a three-year, $40 million contract to join his previous head coach, John Harbaugh, as a Giant. He is set to be a mainstay in the Giants’ offense that has little behind Malik Nabers at wide receiver. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Likely finishes as the second option in the passing game behind Nabers. Even with a two-round rise in his ADP, Likely remains a great pick at the tight end position later in drafts.

Chig Okonkwo | TE, Washington Commanders

  • Up 44.9 picks in ADP
  • From: Early round 20
  • To Mid round 16

Chig Okonkwo signed a $27 million contract to escape from the Tennessee Titans to the Commanders, where he has an instant quarterback upgrade in Jayden Daniels. While the Commanders will likely add to the receiver room with either the rumored addition of Brandon Aiyuk or the selection of a receiver in the draft, Okonkwo should carve out a receiving role in the Commanders’ offense. He is still a buy at his new mid-16th-round price tag if you are looking for a tight end late in drafts.

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