DFS

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership. He offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside.

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

With Todd Gurley officially ruled out with a knee injury, we get a cash game lock in the form of Falcons RB Brian Hill. Las Vegas has allowed the second-most rushing TDs to RBs this season, including three last week to Kansas City’s RB duo. They also rank No. 32 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning Hill should have an efficient day to pair with his monster touchdown equity. This matchup also has a solid 53-point total, meaning finding exposure to it will be crucial this week.

Kyle Rudolph is the ideal punt play this week for cash lineups. With Irv Smith listed as doubtful, Rudolph should play every snap and will run more routes than his usual 17.6 per game. Adam Thielen is also out with COVID this week, so Rudolph should see a few extra shots without Thielen’s 7.6 looks per game. He’s just barely above the min-price on both sites, so he’s in play on both DK and FD.

Now down at $5500, Todd Gurley is officially priced at his lowest point of the season. This matchup with the Raiders is tied for the highest total on the slate at 55.5 points. The Falcons are also only 3-point underdogs and are at home, meaning Atlanta should experience neutral Game Script throughout the contest. Gurley’s $5500 price doesn’t factor in his multi-touchdown upside.

Kenyan Drake has been another shockingly game flow-dependent RB this season, though he has absolutely smashed his last two soft rushing matchups. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots and Drake averages 16.2 carries per game this season. He has a reasonable shot at 20 rush attempts in this premium matchup. Given the explosiveness he’s showcased in his good matchups this season, he is an excellent play to leverage Arizona pass game stacks.

This week against the Chiefs, Tom Brady will be forced to be prolific. Averaging 40.8 (No. 6) Team Pass Plays per Game, 50 pass attempts is squarely within the range of outcomes. The Bucs have three formidable WRs from which to choose for stacking. Our recommendation this week is Chris Godwin. This week is all about volume, and with Godwin’s 56.7-percent (No. 18 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, he should be peppered with easy-to-convert targets in this projected shootout.

Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller Thanksgiving Day stacks are expensive and should be chalky. Be bold and ignore the matchup by going with Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool. The Steelers have realized they don’t need a run game to beat teams anymore, so Roethlisberger is throwing a ton. Diontae Johnson is the most expensive Steelers WR, but Claypool has the most blowup potential with the elite athleticism to beat the imposing Ravens secondary.

Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the first, second, and third target for Cam Newton. He has seen 437 Air Yards over the last four weeks, which gives him a league-leading 43.3-percent Air Yards Share on the season. This week, he is in a game with a 49-point total, the third-highest on the slate. Houston also ranks dead-last in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning you can stack the run-savvy Newton with just Meyers as a nice pivot off of Deshaun Watson stacks.

Since putting up zero fantasy points in Week 4, Brandin Cooks has been on a tear. He’s seen 47 targets over the last five games, posting 411 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now seen a 23.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share on the season, which is actually ahead of Will Fuller’s 20.6-percent (No. 34) mark. Cooks is $1000 cheaper than Fuller on both sites, meaning you get a significant discount for the real WR1.

Since Week 6, the Eagles have averaged 6.05 Yards Per Carry, while averaging just 6.45 Yards Per Pass Attempt. Miles Sanders has over 80 yards in 5-of-6 games and over 95 in 3-of-6. Since returning from injury in Week 10, expect Sanders to take advantage of a Cleveland run defense that has ranked No. 25 over the last three games.

Not only did Miles Sanders return from injury in Week 10, but Nick Chubb also returned for Cleveland with 126 yards on the ground. Chubb has eclipsed 100 yards in his last three finished games. Cleveland and Philadelphia are known as strong run defenses, but the Eagles are No. 28, allowing 148 yards per game over their last three. 

Adam Thielen is the official Air Yards value king! His presence in this section should be no surprise, having appeared here four times before. He is solidly within the top 10 at his position in both Air Yards and Air Yards Share. Coming off a week where he scored over 20 fantasy points, Thielen has a great matchup against a highly exploitable Cowboys secondary. Look for another 20-fantasy point game this week.

After a breakout performance in Week 9, and a top 35 finish at the position in Week 10, Jerry Jeudy’s $5,300 price on DraftKings has to be a glitch. Seeing almost 500 Air Yards over the past three games, Jeudy is the alpha wide receiver some predicted he would be around NFL Draft time. Despite a tough matchup against Miami, he can be deployed across all formats with confidence.

D.J. Chark holds a 33.8-percent (No.13) Air Yards Share, so as long as Jake Luton is looking downfield, Chark will benefit as we saw in his 146-yard outing in Week 9. While the Steelers feel like an intimidating matchup, they actually rank middle of the pack against the pass and are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. We know Chark can produce the boom weeks and he will likely see low ownership because of the matchup despite the $5,700 price tag on DraftKings.

All three of Pittsburgh’s starting wideouts saw double-digit targets and found the end zone in Week 10. But it’s Diontae Johnson who has seen 10 or more targets in five of nine games this season, with 39 targets over the last four. This Steelers-Jaguars game features two high-volume passing offenses, so despite the low over/under, Johnson will still see plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. You can’t go wrong at $5,900.

In what profiles as a smash spot for Dallas receivers, large-field GPPs gamers should target CeeDee Lamb. Priced in between Amari Cooper ($6,900) and Michael Gallup ($5,400) on DraftKings, Lamb ($5,800) offers leverage at low projected rostership. Minnesota has yielded 19 receiving touchdowns so far this season and allows +4.09 fantasy points above the mean to opposing receivers, both the sixth-most in the league.

Chase Claypool’s volatile nature coupled with the overall talent of the Steelers receiving corps makes pinpointing his blowup weeks tough. However, he’s a threat to take it to the house each time he touches the ball and his heady ceiling can’t be ignored. Despite his success, he is an undervalued GPP asset this week with low projected rostership in a matchup against Jacksonville.

Salvon Ahmed has little long term value with a pedestrian athletic profile and Myles Gaskin set to return in the near future. But for this week against the Broncos, he should be a smash play at only $5,600. He will get the majority of the ground work and the Dolphins should have positive Game Script. That is enough to make him a good play at that price, especially in cash.

No one knows why, but Adam Gase continues to give Frank Gore ten-plus touches a week despite having the most negative Game Script of any team in the league. It does not make sense, but that touch volume continues to put Gore on the Value Rating list. He is the cheapest starting running back, but fantasy gamers have to hold their nose to play him in any format.