DFS

The Chiefs are most vulnerable on the ground, so Myles Gaskin will find efficiency on his 20-plus touches this week. Even if the Dolphins do fall behind in the second half, he’s seen 37 (No. 21 among qualified running backs) targets for a 14.4-percent (No. 7) Target Share and has a 54.6-percent (No. 10) Route Participation mark. Gaskin is a bona fide Game Script-independent workhorse and should crush this week.

Jonathan Taylor faces a Raiders defense that ranks No. 31 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and just let Ty Johnson rack up 104 yards and a score on the ground. A $5800 price is still difficult to stomach in cash, but that will keep Taylor’s tournament ownership low. Most DFS gamers will be focused on the Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler tier. Pivoting down to Taylor unlocks the Michael Thomas and Julio Jones tier of high-upside and underpriced WRs.

Kareem Hunt’s opportunity numbers are inflated by the time that Nick Chubb spent on IR, but he has still received double digit carries in every game this year. The matchup against Tennessee’s lackluster defense is intriguing as well. They have given up an average of 1.56 points above expectation at the running back position this year. It is hard to trust a secondary back without stellar receiving volume at $6,300 in cash, but Hunt is a great upside play for tournaments.

David Montgomery ranks top 10 in Opportunity Share with a large sample of games played, yet is priced among secondary and part time backs. He has a true featured role in the Chicago offense. In a plus matchup against the Lions, Montgomery is a near lock in cash with his touch volume. He is still a risk in tournaments as it is hard to envision high boom potential for any player in a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense.

Devontae Booker has flashed consistent efficiency while also sporting elite explosiveness with a dominant college profile. Given what he’s shown this season and the state of the Raiders backfield, he will dominate touches against a lifeless Jets team. New York is more of a pass-funnel defense, but Las Vegas is an 8.5-point favorite. They’ll dominate Game Script and Booker will be involved throughout the game. He opens up salary on a tight slate and projects extremely well.

Denzel Mims’ signature breakout game is coming. The speedy rookie has now seen eight targets and over 100 Air Yards in three straight games. He also has a 26.4-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 38.6-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share despite only five career NFL games played. It’s been tough sledding for Mims against the Patriots, Chargers, and Dolphins over the last three weeks, but now he draws the Raiders.

Typically we stay away from bad teams in props or fantasy, but this week there are only a few strong games to play. In Week 13, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman bring upper 90th-percentile Speed Scores up against a battered Las Vegas Raiders pass defense. Missing star safeties Johnathan Abram, and Lamarcus Joyner, and with both starting cornerbacks riding the injury report each of the last two weeks, expect Mims and Perriman to close in on 200 yards between them.

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Miami in Week 13, featuring the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two picks from the Dolphins and Bengals. Unfortunately, neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Joe Burrow will play on Sunday. Instead, we will see a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Allen, where The Podfather sees the Dolphins defense putting the clamps on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. 

D.K. Metcalf makes his first appearance on the Air Yards Value Index after balling out in an island game on Monday night to the tune of 10 receptions for 177 yards. Metcalf saw over 207 Air Yards last week. His ascension in the Seahawks passing game is happening. However, he faces a tough projected matchup in Week 13 against the Giants and James Bradberry. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be fed the rock despite this tough matchup, or if Russell Wilson focuses his attention toward Tyler Lockett.

Darius Slayton’s demise post Sterling Shepard’s return reached the lowest of lows last week. Slayton, despite 63 Air Yards, finished the week with zero fantasy points. With Giants backup quarterback Colt McCoy expected to start, things may not be looking up for Slayton anytime soon despite his Air Yards totals. However, with the Giants likely facing a negative Game Script against the heavily favored Seahawks, he may find himself some garbage time Air Yards and fantasy points.

Brandin Cooks has seen 57 targets over the last seven games, averaging six receptions and 83 yards per game over that stretch. This game against the Colts has an over/under of 51.5 points, opening the door for a ceiling game from Cooks. At $5,600, he presents massive upside compared to the guys near his price point.

Michael Pittman will continue to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wide receiver against a Texans secondary that has allowed the 10th-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. This game is tied for the highest projected point total of the week, so the chances of it shooting out are high. Assuming Pittman gets back to the efficiency we saw prior to Week 12, he will deliver his best performance to date. At $4,900, we can’t pass on that type of upside. 

No stranger to the boom-or-bust life, Adam Thielen has scored two TDs in each of his past two games. He recorded 32.3 fantasy points in Week 12 and 20.2 in Week 11. Prior to that, however, he notched two straight games with five fantasy points. His up-and-down weekly oscillation distils out in the form of a 10.6 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score. Primed to feast against the Jaguars, Thielen returns to his No. 1 role alongside talented rookie Justin Jefferson.

A volatile fantasy asset with an 8.4 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility mark, Allen finds himself on a hot streak. He’s scored in five consecutive games. Poised for another blowup game, Allen draws a beatable matchup against the Patriots. He faces primary coverage from Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, who’s allowed five TDs this season. It’s an exploitable matchup for Allen, who’s rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.

After the murderer’s row of defenses to start the year, Deshaun Watson has been simply phenomenal. He should be a popular option this week without getting too chalky as players fear that imposing Colts defensive matchup. Instead of throwing darts at the backups with Keke Coutee, Isaiah Coulter, or the tight ends, go with Brandin Cooks. This game will be played in a dome with one of the only 50-plus point totals, and at only $5600, he will be among the cheapest WR1s available on the slate.

At only $5.4K, Mitchell Trubisky draws a matchup against a Lions team with a struggling defense that just fired their coach after getting torched by Deshaun Watson on Thanksgiving. The unquestioned alpha in the offense, Allen Robinson is the most sensible receiver to stack with Trubisky. Put it together and we have a stack featuring a running QB with his target magnet WR1 at discount prices in a dream matchup with low ownership due to brand.

David Montgomery is now at his second-lowest price of the season and has a soft matchup against Detroit. With a 44-point total, this game doesn’t project for many touchdowns. The good news is that the Lions have allowed 21 total touchdowns to RBs this season, easily the most in the NFL. Montgomery is a high-floor RB in a smash spot. When factoring in his price, he looks like one of the best RB values on the slate.

With the Colts being 3.5-point favorites over the Texans this week, Jonathan Taylor is set up for another 20 touches. This game has a 51-point total, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Texans also rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to RBs this season. Taylor has caught at least two balls in all but two games this season, boosting his floor and making him a viable play in cash lineups. This is the eruption spot we’ve been waiting for.

What do fantasy players do with Devin Singletary at this point? He keeps getting playing time and keeps performing terribly and losing touches. A home matchup against the Chargers could provide a bounce-back performance, and Singletary has plummeted down to $5,500. There is still enough upside and snaps to justify playing him in GPPs and cash games at that price despite the negative trends.

It is hard to rely on any player in a three way time split, but that is especially true if you are not confidently investing in the leader of the committee. Darrell Henderson is too expensive to play in cash with an uncertain touch floor at $5,900, even in a plus matchup against San Francisco, but he has the upside to be viable in tournaments.