DFS

As mentioned in Volume II of The Pareto Principals, this week’s lineups need to be constructed around whether this Cowboys-Chargers game will be the focus. A high projected point total, a top-10 Pace of Play after one week, and all of his pass-catchers enjoying favorable matchups makes Justin Herbert a worthwhile focal point in Week 2 lineups. Especially with more projected points than Dak Prescott at $100 cheaper on DraftKings.

Given the allure of sexier on-paper matchups, this Buffalo-Miami game represents an interesting pivot point for Week 2 DFS tournaments. And with both Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders locking up with top-15 cornerbacks, the stage is set for a vintage two-score Cole Beasley performance as he goes up against No. 47-ranked Nik Needham. At $4,600, he’s another potential naked, salary-saving play.

After missing the majority of the preseason with a hand injury, D.J. Chark appeared to be the Jaguars primary passing target in Week 1, seeing 12 targets. Unfortunately, he caught three of these targets for 86 receiving yards, leaving most of his Air Yards unrealized. As Chark and rookie Trevor Lawrence are likely working through some chemistry issues, Chark remains a intriguing DFS play as he is only $100 in price away from making the value list.

Anthony Schwartz split snaps with Donovan Peoples-Jones in his rookie debut, but the burner rookie out scored Peoples-Jones, amassing 11.6 fantasy points. Schwartz and his 4.32 Pro Day-adjusted 40-Yard Dash time, was the clear downfield downfield threat for the Browns last week posting a 25.2 Average Target Distance. With Odell Beckham out again this week, and Cleveland set to square off against an exploitable Houston Texans secondary, Schwartz makes for an ideal cost saving play in tournaments.

Noah Fant’s advanced metrics make it impossible to resist the drool-worthy 50.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. His opportunity metrics will continue to impress in Week 2 with the absence of Jerry Jeudy. Clearly, Fant’s 83.3-percent (No. 9 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share shows that he is always in the game, and his 28 (No. 7) Routes Run means that he is generating opportunity for targets. Moreover, he delivered with a 22.9-percent (No. 5) Target Share and a whopping 8 (No. 3) Targets!

The under feels so right when you consider Robby Anderson’s Week 1 results coupled with his matchup against the Saints. In the case of his Week 1 performance, he only mustered 3 Targets with a 9.1-percent (No. 84) Target Share last week against the lowly Jets secondary. Targets won’t come any easier this week against a Saints defense that only allowed 186 passing yards to the Packers.

Going back to the well with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins should pay off in Week 2. Only Jameis Winston (legit shocker) threw for more Passing Touchdowns than Murray in Week 1. Priced up as the most expensive quarterback and wide receiver pairing, here’s a situation where paying up to be contrarian could be the separator needed to bink.

The Cowboys/Chargers game will be popular and for good reason. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert ranked second and fourth in Attempts Per Game after one week of action (47 and 40 attempts respectively.) The games’ slate high 55 point implied game total tells a story that Vegas expects another shootout too. Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper lead their respective teams equally each with a 28-percent Target Share. This makes for a logical stacking combination.

DFS Week 2 matchups are going to be exciting. All four o-clock games are projected to go over 50 points, with the Eagles-49ers expected to do the same. In other words: You need to hit big. Three touchdowns and 300 yards from your quarterbacks shouldn’t be likely; it has to be a lock.

If there were ever a game to cite volume over matchup, Cowboys at Chargers would be the one. And not on the side of the Chargers. Keenan Allen is one of my favorite targets, if not my favorite in my top-rated DFS Week 2 matchup. However, the Cowboys receivers are a completely different story. Yes, the Cowboys have a prolific offense and this matchup is marked as one of the highest-scoring on the slate. We could see something similar to the Browns with a superb defense versus Chiefs elite-level offense from Week 1, except the Chargers defense could be the best in the league. 

If I had one regret last week, it was not opting for a Chiefs double-stack. Given the attraction of Cardinals-Titans and Eagles-Falcons, the Chiefs became underplayed relative to their upside and projection. Ultimately I made the choice to avoid lineups that forced me into playing multiple, cheap chalk receivers such as Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, and Marquez Callaway. However, with viable options such as Jaylen Waddle available and productive at low ownership, it was worth attempting.

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Chargers-Cowboys game may be high scoring this week. With an over-under of 54.5 and a tight spread, DFS players from near and far are making the pilgrimage to jam Chargers and Cowboys into their DraftKings lineups this week. In early week PFF ownership projections, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Ceedee Lamb all rank among the top four rostered receivers. The first decision you need to make for each lineup this week is whether this game will be the focus of your entry. The rest of your lineup needs to be constructed around that basis from an ownership perspective.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it? We’re going right back to the Eagles this week. After smashing on Sunday, DraftKings raised Jalen Hurts’ price by only $100 to $6.5k. Devonta Smith received more of a price bump, but at $5.4k he’s still too cheap as the top option in this offense. DraftKings seems to not want to overreact to Week 1 with salaries, so take advantage in situations where we feel more confident coming out of last week.

This week when everyone is on Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb or Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, paying up slightly to pivot onto the Bills provides an appealing leverage point in tournaments. Another way to pivot off of chalky expensive stacks is to totally alter the structure of your lineup. By paying all the way down at $5.1K for Zach Wilson and $5.3K for WR1 Corey Davis, you free up copious salary to play other high end players the field can’t afford due to their stack.

Washington’s front-7 is going to eat the Giants’s offensive line alive, which does not bode well for anyone in the Giants offense, particularly Saquon Barkley. Sterling Shepard looks to be the WR1 in this offense, and should be peppered with targets along with teammate Kenny Golladay, who will see an enticing matchup this week against the 99th ranked cornerback.

Taylor Heinicke is more efficient than most realize, and is more than capable of leading this team to wins and productive fantasy outings. With Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas all seeing impressive opportunity metrics last week, fantasy gamers should be trusting them in their lineups against a mid-tier defense and an overall dumpster fire of a team.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Coming off of back-to-back 1000 yard rushing seasons, Lamar Jackson’s playmaking with his legs balances out his lack of passing opportunity, productivity, and efficiency. With injuries to J.K. Dobbins (ACL), Rashod Bateman (groin), and Gus Edwards (ACL), once again Jackson will be forced to offset the losses with his legs.

The only receiving option to start for the Raiders is Darren Waller. Ravens allowed 120 targets and 82 receptions to the tight end position in 2020. Both finished in the 12th-highest amounts among defenses according to Pro-Football-Reference. Waller is the only certainty in the Raiders’ offense and finished with more top-5 performances (9) than games outside the top-5 (7).