High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 2

by Mark Kieffer, September 15, 2021

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries, and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Because we are using one week of data, results are limited. For example, Aaron Jones and Chris Carson had zero carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 1. They are both players I would consider rostering in my DFS lineups any week. There were only 11 running backs that had more than one carry inside the 10-yard line during Week 1 that are on the DFS Main Slate in Week 2.

*Edit: The original version of this article said no running backs had red zone targets nor targets inside the 10-yard line. This was inaccurate due to a data error. The new rankings are below*

With that, here are the Top 5 in the High Value Touch DFS Index heading into Week 2:

High Priced Studs

Jonathan Taylor: $7,200 on DraftKings and FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings:46.25 (No. 6 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 40.69 (No. 5 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 3.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 88.89 percent

Jonathan Taylor Opportunity Metrics

Jonathan Taylor not only is tied for No. 4 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line at 3.0 per game, but he also is No. 6 among running backs with seven targets in Week 1. He is also No. 7 among running backs in Red Zone Snap Share. The combination of high value touches and targets creates a floor and ceiling that we like to have in our DFS lineups.

Austin Ekeler: $7,300 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 31.78 (No. 11 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 57.17 (No. 7 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 4.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 69.23 percent

Austin Ekeler was another leader among running backs with four carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 1. Ekeler commanded zero targets in Week 1, however, in 2020 he averaged 6.5 targets per game, No. 8 among qualified running backs. Combine the high value touches with the expected target upside and Ekeler is a running back to consider any week in DFS. There were questions about Ekeler’s health last week, so his status is always something to monitor before lineup lock.

Nick Chubb: $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 29.74 (No. 14 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 27.62 (No. 9 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 4.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 50 percent

Nick Chubb Opportunity and Productivity Metrics

Although Nick Chubb was also tied for No.1 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line at 4.0 per game, he is the most expensive running back on the list which puts his value index at third for FanDuel and fourth for DraftKings. He scored two touchdowns and is No. 1 among running backs in Touchdown Rate at 11.8 percent, which is why he is now priced up. Kareem Hunt did have two carries inside the 10-yard line and had a 58 percent Red Zone Snap Share, which is higher than Chubb. Hunt and Chubb are going to dip into each other’s opportunities and limit each other’s upside in DFS.

Top 5 Values:

5) Phillip Lindsay: $4,600 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 47.17
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 36.122

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 20 percent

Phillip Lindsay Opportunity and Productivity Metrics

Phillip Lindsay was one of 10 running backs on the slate to receive a target inside the 10 yard line, and also received one carry inside the 10 yard line as well. Because he is also the least expensive running back on the slate, he arrives at No. 5 in the index. Given his low Red Zone Snap Share, he is someone I likely would not roster in DFS this week.

4) Mark Ingram: $5,000 on DraftKings,$5,600 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 46.4
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 41.43

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 4.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 40 percent

Mark Ingram Week 1 Gamelog

Mark Ingram tied for No.1 among running backs with four carries inside the 10-yard line in Week 1. Of those leaders, he is by far the least expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He does not command many targets (he did have one last week). If he continues to be used as a goal-line back, he will provide touchdown possibility each week at a reduced price. On the other hand, even with the high volume of Week 1 with 26 carries, and one touchdown he is just No. 18 among running backs in Fantasy Points Per Game with 14.5. He is someone I would consider in a cash game, as a low-priced RB2 to open up salary somewhere else. He does not have the upside for GPPs.

3)David Johnson: $5,200 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 61.15
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 44.91

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game

Red Zone Snap Share: 40 percent

I do not love that the first three on this list are Houston Texans. David Johnson was tied for No. 1 in Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line which mixed with his low price is what boosts him up here. The Red Zone Snaps have been split 40-40-20 in favor of David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Phillip Lindsay. Ingram got all the carries inside the 10-yard line. Will Houston get this many opportunities inside the 10-yard line often this season?

2) Mike Davis: $5,500 on both DraftKings and Fanduel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 68.36
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 53.82

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game

Red Zone Snap Share: 66.67 percent

Mike Davis tied for No.1 among running backs in Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line with two in Week 1 but tied for No. 18 in Red Zone Snap Share. This is an offense that was in a smash-spot against Philadelphia scoring-wise and put up a dud. If Davis continues to be priced this low and receive a high number of targets inside the 10-yard line, I am interested in taking a flier on him in my DFS lineups.

1) Najee Harris: $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 68.89
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 58.03

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game

Red Zone Snap Share: 85.71 percent

Najee Harris had a 100 percent Opportunity Share in Week 1, which is clearly No. 1 among running backs. His two carries and two targets inside the 10-yard line was the highest volume of all the running backs combined. When one factors in his price being below $6,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and it’s clear why is he is the largest bargin on the slate. Going against a Raiders team that allowed the most rushing yards in Week 1 at 189 yards and I am interested in getting Najee Harris and his high Opportunity Share, and his high volume inside the 10-yard line.

Just Missed The Cut

DraftKings: Devin Singletary (44.28), Ty Montgomery (39.75), Tony Jones (36.13), Ezekiel Elliot (35)
FanDuel: Devin Singletary (31.60), Darrell Henderson (27.19), Alvin Kamara (26.70), Ty Montgomery (25.32)

Final Thoughts:

Having one observation gives a starting point with this index. It will be fun to see how the High Value Touches change for players as the season continues on. One game is not a trend, but a starting point for analysis. Consider having these five players in your player pool if looking to differentiate your lineups, or if you are planning to create multiple lineups using an optimizer.

We will come back for Week 3 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 2!