DFS

Jalen Hurts OVER 283.5 total yards is my highest confidence play of the slate because it has all of the ingredients for it to hit. Hurts averaged 361 total yards per game in the three full games he played last year. He will move the the ball with ease against one of the worst defenses in the league. Add in a points total of 49.0 and this game has the perfect recipe an offensive showdown.

Russell Wilson will cook and Tyler Lockett will eat. Lockett had 492 (54.4-percent rate) Slot Snaps in 2020, therefore it should be easy for him to find room to operate against the zone heavy defense employed by the Colts. Additionally, Xavier Rhodes will miss this matchup, making the case for Lockett even stronger. Plus, this game has a high points total at 49.0, so I love the opportunity Lockett has to smash the Over.

At the beginning of a new season with uncertain target distributions, take bold stabs at prolific QBs and upside WRs for your stacks to gain leverage on the field through uniquely correlated roster construction in DFS tournaments. Jalen Hurts and new WR1 Devonta Smith provide just one tantalizing example.

The Jalen Hurts-Devonta Smith stack checks every box listed above and costs under $11k on DraftKings this week. In the dome in Atlanta, this game features a 48.5 over under total. Smith looks like the number one wideout in Philadelphia, but enters Week 1 as the fourth-cheapest team WR1 by PlayerProfiler projection and second-cheapest team WR1 by DK salary. Take advantage of the value while DK and other fantasy gamers worry about the rookie translating to the NFL and a nebulous Target Share.

Looking back to 2020, there was only one time a stack with a quarterback-pass catcher won the Millionaire Maker and the combined point total was 50 points or less: Week 8 when the Chiefs destroyed the Jets 35-9. There’s plenty of ways to find these players and matchups, whether it be the perfect positional advantages, bad defenses meeting incredible offenses, or two great quarterbacks going head to head. Finding these matchups is key to building the start to a great roster.

The Air Yards leader of 2020 appears posed to repeat as the Air Yards king in 2021. Calvin Ridley enters his first NFL season without Julio Jones as his teammate, and last seasons time without Julio on the field foretells a huge fantasy season incoming. Ridley averaged 160 Air Yards in the contests the Julio did not play in 2020 and averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. Ridley should feast on Arizona’s injury riddle secondary and is THE wide receiver to spend big on at Draftkings.

Marvin Jones is the only wide receiver on this list to have changed teams. Moving from the top receiver on the depth chart after Kenny Golladay’s injury in Detroit, to competing for targets with D.J. Chark, and Laviska Shenualt, Jones will look to establish himself in the target pecking order in Week 1. It should shock no one if Jones is the preferred downfield target of Trevor Lawrence as opposed to the more expensive D.J. Chark (DK: $5,800).

While I’m high on Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray’s upside shouldn’t go overlooked in this potential shootout. Murray’s 67-percent Red Zone Completion Percentage and 24.4 Fantasy Points Per Game are good for third-best among qualified quarterbacks. The Titans low-key allowed the second-most touchdown passes (only the Lions allowed more) to opposing quarterbacks last season (36).  

The Falcons and Eagles allowed the most and ninth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. Devonta Smith’s 34.6-percent Target Share at Alabama last year gives us a clear run-back option on the Eagles side of the ball. The Matt Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Kyle Pitts/Devonta Smith stack is very intriguing.

Let’s say you want to target the Steelers-Bills game. By stacking this game, you’re betting on it to be the highest scoring contest on the slate. With many strong plays to complete your stack, you want to target players who correlate with the game’s ceiling outcome. You’re banking on a octane performance from the Steelers to keep the Bills passing to Stefon Diggs. Your best bet for this is with Chase Claypool.

It’s possible we get an under-rostered Austin Ekeler if he is declared healthy by game-time after missing practice with a hamstring injury. On the other side, On the other side, Curtis Samuel has landed on IR after aggravating his groin, narrowing the target tree in Washington. Any combination of skinny stacks between Ekeler (if healthy), Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas will be a fixture in my tournament core this weekend.

Welcome to my series on tournament daily fantasy sports for PlayerProfiler. The Pareto Principals will embark on an overview of each slate with an eye towards theoretical, structural analysis. I will apply that to an intriguing lineup concept to employ in DFS tournaments that week; with an emphasis on limited entry, small to medium field contests.

My ‘Pareto-inspired’ play-style works best in environments which reward a big-hit, small-miss mentality, that prioritizes macro-level process over micro-level selections. If that’s not you, I think this column will still be a useful read in terms of helping grow your mindset for DFS, fantasy football, and probability-based thinking in general. If that is you, then I encourage you to play along with me this season.

A quarterback with a pass-catching running back is a contrarian stack that can net you serious points. Game Script plays a significant part. If the team has a separate third-down back or pass catcher, they will see an increase in snaps if their team is down or if the game is high scoring. Shootouts are matchups you want to attack, and grabbing the pass-catching back could separate you from competitors targeting the same game.

Most people think stacking players can only be players from the same team. However, rostering players from the same game on separate teams can optimize your fantasy points. Although it increases volatility, correlating players from the same game can net premium fantasy production. Figure out why you are playing specific stacks and find players on the opposing side who would benefit from said Game Script to maximize the lineup’s upside.

Although the Falcons were solid against the running backs in 2020, the defense was ravaged by injuries, specifically in the secondary. If they’ve improved whatsoever, Miles Sanders should be in for some work out of the backfield. His 2.71 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Yards Created per Touch while his beat-up line offered a 59.3 (No. 13.) Run Blocking Efficiency rate should be a testament to what he’s capable of if the line is healthy. 

With Travis Etienne being injured so close to the season, expect there to be a decently high percentage of ownership in all contests for James Robinson, who is far from a free square. He was only worth rostering in four tournament contests in 2020. Against the Texans, he disappointed in both matchups. However, with the loss of their best run defender in J.J. Watt and eight new starters in a different system, expect plenty of opportunities to get chunk gains and Breakaway Runs.

This Titans defense is going through a masked rebuild. They lost 11 defensive players to free agency, five of them starters. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins is one of my favorite Week 1 Milly Maker stacks, and if people are sleeping on how bad the Titans defense will be, they might be lower rostered than expected. Regardless, Hopkins should see a high roster percentage, so rolling him out with Rondale Moore should give some variance to the lineup.

The chalk of Week 1 Milly Maker stacks has arrived. Storylines surrounding Aaron Rodgers will undoubtedly result in a high roster percentage. Additionally, the pricing crushes any hope of leading with a Rodgers-Davante Adams stack. However, playing the stack with a third member of the offense might help eliminate some other shareholders. The Rodgers-Adams stack will have significantly high ownership levels and fading it is more likely to leave you high and dry than with a winning lineup.