Attacking Recency Bias Part Two: More Undervalued Dynasty Trade Targets

by Tyler Strong · Trades Buy/Sell

Last time, we covered some injured and tarnished fantasy assets that need to be rescued and added to your roster. We’ve got a few more to cover, starting with a high profile rookie that’s seen his value plummet even with a 1,000 yard season. There’s a fantasy Twitter darling tucked in here too. Let’s jump in!

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is having one of the most unimpressive 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage seasons ever. The rookie is top-10 in RB targets and Weighted Opportunities,┬ábut fantasy players haven’t been thrilled with the LSU star’s play thus far. Island game Twitter has hit CEH hard for his lack of vision and explosiveness on the best offense in football, and the Chiefs’ adherence to the passing game doesn’t help the rookie’s case.

The Chiefs are pacing the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation by a wide margin, and can we blame them? With Patrick Mahomes having Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to, why run? Even still, Edward-Helaire’s lack of red-zone production has been frustrating, and it reached its absolute nadir when Mahomes opted for what was essentially a lateral pop pass to Kelce on the one-yard line this past Sunday against the Saints. The Chiefs realize that passing is simply + EV in almost every situation, but the wild efficiency in which they’re succeeding with it has to snap back to place a little bit, and Edwards-Helaire has plenty of room to grow as his price has undoubtedly softened after being a top-2 pick in rookie drafts over the offseason. I’ll be feeling it out.

Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans

Whether fantasy players like it or not (they don’t like it), Deshaun Watson is a Texan for the foreseeable future, and the offense has taken a noticeable step back without Will Fuller in the lineup. Sure, his field-stretching ability opened up the field for his fellow receivers, but he led the league in Production Premium in his 11 games played. He was also top-5 in Expected Points Added and Fantasy Points per Target, more evidence of this stellar QB-WR pairing. They’re pretty good numbers for a player often pigeon-holed as a pure deep threat in the DeAndre Hopkins era. He was a complete player in 2020.

Will Fuller 2020 Efficiency Metrics

Watson is a guaranteed Texan, but Fuller finds himself as an unrestricted free agent after this season. It remains to be seen how the new Texans brass will handle Watson’s clear top target. They’d be wise to link him back up with the QB having an MVP-grade season, but we have to plan for all possible outcomes. We can’t project where he’d go, but a dynamic player of Fuller’s skillset set to play 2021 at age 27 is a plenty attractive buy for me. His reinvention into an all-purpose player in 2020 certainly boosted his market value.

Fuller’s injury history is worrisome, but his age is far from a death sentence, and he’ll either be tethered to Watson or, like Robby Anderson last season, find himself in a plus situation relative to his cost.

Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints

Bear with me here. Drew Brees had a lackluster season before he was knocked out with cracked ribs, and Taysom Hill has filled in as well as anyone could’ve hoped. But James lurks. Couple his resume of fantasy success with comments this week from Sean Payton that Winston is “going to have the opportunity to start the minute Drew leaves,” and you’ve got an intriguing buy-low opportunity a-brewing.

Check out Jameis Winston on PlayerProfiler’s New DYNASTY DELUXE Rankings:

The 30-for-30 on Winston’s 30-30 season could be amended to reflect a late career rebirth under Sean Payton. Fantasy players better hope Winston has a successful audition if they care about the fantasy stock of Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and the other receiving options in New Orleans. Thomas has been getting by on massive volume, evidenced by his 27.8-percent Target Share, but he would greatly benefit from a traditional QB under center. For the cost of acquiring Winston, and with how long established QBs stick around in this league, he’s worth a speculative offer at the very least.