Underdog Pick ‘Ems Divisional Round | 2024 NFL Playoffs

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props

This is Underdog Pick ‘Ems Divisional Round – NFL Playoffs 2024! This is your spot for finding the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

Last week, we were one Amon-Ra St. Brown reception away from a winning two-pick entry. However, we are looking for a bounce back with two more entries this weekend for the NFL’s Divisional Round. If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 16.

Ahaan’s Divisional Round Picks

Chris Godwin (TB) HIGHER than 10.95 fantasy points

When you give me a good reason to stop taking advantage of the Detroit Lions’ pass defense like we have been all season long, I will consider stopping. In the regular season, Detroit ranked No. 26 in drop back EPA/play allowed. Recently, they have tried to mitigate the issue by bracketing top-option pass-catchers. This opens up doors for No. 2 options to dominate.

Since Week 13, Alvin Kamara, Cole Kmet, Jerry Jeudy, T.J. Hockenson, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Addison, and Puka Nacua have all recorded at least 55 receiving yards against Detroit. Godwin already averages 57 receiving yards per 32 Baker Mayfield throws this season. With Mayfield’s attempts line set at 34.5, expect Godwin to get a path to over 60 receiving yards in this one. However, the beauty of the “fantasy points” market is that we can get more than half-way there even with low volume if Godwin finds the end zone. Godwin has 15 red zone targets on the season. He is clearly a huge part of the Buccaneers’ gameplan. Tampa Bay is an underdog, this game is indoors, and Detroit’s run defense is strong. The passing should be aplenty in this one. The opportunities should have been there. However, the efficiency should be even more certain.

In Godwin’s previous meeting against the Detroit Lions, his team’s offense was dead and didn’t even manage to score a touchdown. Godwin still recorded 13.7 fantasy points. This projection is too low.

Sam LaPorta (DET) HIGHER than 4.0 receptions

One of the biggest breakout stories in the NFL this season has been Sam LaPorta, the tight end for the Detroit Lions. In his 17-game regular season, LaPorta recorded at least four receptions in 13 games and at least five receptions in 10 games. Last week, there was concern surrounding his health following a brutal hit in Week 18. While his production was low and deferred to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds, the opportunity was not absent. LaPorta recorded an 83.3-percent route participation and is now reportedly improving in the health department.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

In an elimination game, expect a heavy load again for the rookie. With Jared Goff‘s pass attempts line set at 34.5, the sportsbooks are expecting this to be a heavy throwing game for the Lions. The Buccaneers are one of the heaviest blitzing defenses in the NFL, leading to them giving up the No. 3-most tight end receptions per game. LaPorta could be in line for at least seven targets, making it a bargain to ask him for five catches as Goff’s safety blanket. Buy low.

Trevor’s Divisional Round Picks

Isaiah Likely (BAL) HIGHER than 37.5 receiving yards

The Ravens’ offense has been on fire lately. Quarterback Lamar Jackson and wide receiver Zay Flowers have led the charge. However, the Texans’ defense has been particularly vulnerable against tight ends. The Texans are allowing the No. 5 most reception yards (57.4) and the second most receptions (6.1) to the position in the league. This provides a golden opportunity for Likely to shine.

In their last five games without Mark Andrews, Likely has gone over 37.5 receiving yards in four of them. This impressive performance, coupled with the fact that the Texans allow an average of 62.9 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, makes Likely a strong candidate for a breakout game. The Texans have also run a lot of two high safety coverages which Likely has excelled against this season. 

Moreover, the Ravens’ offensive line has been performing exceptionally well in both pass protection and run blocking, giving Jackson ample time to find Likely downfield. With the Texans’ defense focused on containing the Ravens’ explosive wide receivers, Likely should encounter plenty of space to make plays.

Nico Collins (HOU) HIGHER than 13.55 fantasy points 

As the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens prepare to face off this weekend, we have been in the lab to take advantage of this Divisional Round matchup. One player poised to have a breakout game is Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. With an impressive 1,297 receiving yards this season and a favorable matchup against the Ravens, Collins is projected to surpass 13.05 fantasy points against the Ravens this weekend. 

The Ravens’ defense, while formidable, showed vulnerability against the pass in their first matchup, with Stroud throwing for 244 yards. This provides an opportunity for Collins to exploit their secondary and rack up significant yardage. Additionally, the absence of fellow wide receivers Noah Brown and Tank Dell due to injury will continue to lead to an increased target share for Collins.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

In their previous meeting this season, Collins was a crucial contributor to the Texans’ passing attack, posting 75 receiving yards. However, we now have no Tank Dell or Noah Brown. In his last six games with Stroud, Collins has averaged 20 half-ppr fantasy points. That is No. 1 in the NFL for that span. Baltimore has also been running a ton of Cover 6 over the last three weeks. Additionally, Stroud has completed 80-percent of his passes against Cover 6 this year. 

Furthermore, the Ravens are without their star cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, who is dealing with an injury and has not practiced recently. Now that Humphrey cannot play, it further improves the outlook for Collins and the Texans’ passing game.