NFL Divisional Round Best Bets – 2024 | NFL Picks on BetOpenly

by Ahaan Rungta and TREVOR TIPTON · Betting & Props

This is NFL Divisional Round Best Bets on BetOpenly! Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In the Wild Card Round, our picks went 1-3. We start our bounce back with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.

As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds than at a traditional sports book. A traditional sports book charges on average 10-percent juice. When you see a player prop for -110 at another book, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.

If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season

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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail them with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.

Ahaan’s Divisional Round Picks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Spread +6.5 vs. Detroit Lions (-104)

In the regular season, Tampa Bay’s offense ranked No. 12 in total EPA per play and No. 8 in dropback EPA per play. All season, Baker Mayfield has made the best of his weapons despite playing behind an offensive line that ranked No. 22 in pass block win rate. On defense, they have fallen off from the juggernaut they were when they won the Super Bowl a few years ago. However, they have gotten better as the season has progressed. The Buccaneers rank No. 11 in rush EPA per play allowed since Week 10.

Meanwhile, Detroit has been carried by their offense for a majority of the season behind tactical play by Goff and a fantastic offensive line. It makes sense that the Vegas total is high in this one. However, the difference could stand in Detroit’s lackluster defense. Although they have been sturdy against the run, they cannot defend through the air to save their lives. Since Week 10, they rank No. 29 in drop back EPA per play allowed.

Lions Offensive Production

Although they got away with a one-point victory in the Wild Card Round against the Los Angeles Rams, most of the Lions’ production came in the first half of the game when Goff was left clean in the pocket on nearly every progression. The Lions only won one quarter in a game against a Rams defense that primarily fielded inexperienced players with low draft capital. Now, they face a much more battle-tested group under Todd Bowles. This could very well be a one-possession game for four quarters again. Given that home field advantage is worth no more than two points, spotting the Buccaneers nearly a full score in this contest is disrespectful.

You can get this spread on sportsbooks but have to pay up to -115 juice. At BetOpenly, you can get it at the price of nearly a coin flip.

Buffalo Bills to Win vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-138)

The most well-known betting headline surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes has been one of the toughest players of all time to fade. Mahomes is 8-1-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career. This includes 1-0-0 straight up as an underdog (Super Bowl 2023). The narratives have been baked into the lines by now. As a result, there has been an overreaction. With home field advantage being worth about two points in frosty Buffalo, the 2.5-point spread in favor of the Bills essentially suggests that these two teams are evenly matched. This is very much not the case. This season, Kansas City has provided Mahomes with the worst surrounding roster of his NFL career.

Defensively, the Chiefs rely on an excellent defensive scheme in man coverage. Despite ranking just No. 20 in pass rush win rate, they have been sturdy through the air. The Chiefs defense ranked No. 3 in dropback EPA per play allowed. However, there is only so much that one-dimensional process that can do for you against Josh Allen. Kansas City should be exposed by Allen through the ground as they rank No. 28 in rush EPA per play allowed.

However, they could also struggle defending Allen through the air. Allen ranks No. 12 in passer rating and No. 3 in accuracy rating against man coverage. Additionally, Allen also ranks No. 11 in completion percentage and No. 2 in accuracy rating in a clean pocket. Kansas City cannot get away with a lack of pressure much longer.

Chiefs Offense

Offensively, do not let the cakewalk against a battered Dolphins defense fool you. The Chiefs need to be able to find answers outside of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice and simply have not proven they have the personnel to do so. The Bills rank No. 7 in dropback EPA per play allowed and No. 4 in pass rush win rate. They are the more complete unit defensively even with a couple of starters banged up.

The obvious reason the Chiefs are only small underdogs and are still contenders to go all the way to another championship is the quarterback position. Mahomes has statistically been the most efficient quarterback we have ever seen in the NFL. However, thanks to a lack of activity by the Chiefs front office to give Mahomes a full set of weapons, Allen has been the more productive player this season and ranks No. 3 among all quarterbacks this season in EPA per play in the fourth quarter and overtime (Mahomes ranks No. 18). Kansas City could simply run out of answers on both ends of the ball in the Divisional Round. This makes it worth the juice to back the home team this weekend. This is especially true at the discount we get on BetOpenly as opposed to the -150 premium on several sportsbooks.

Trevor’s Divisional Round Picks

Christian McCaffrey (SF) OVER 18.5 Rushing Attempts (+100)

The NFL Divisional Round is quickly approaching, and the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers are, naturally, my favorite teams to watch. The bookmakers think the Packers won’t be able to hold up with the 49ers this Saturday night, as they are 9.5 point favorites.

We expect Kyle Shanahan to be well into his 20s on running attempts when he unleashes McCaffrey on Saturday night. 

McCaffrey’s Effect on Offense for the 49ers

Christian McCaffrey has transformed the 49ers offense since joining the team. He is a headache for opposing defenses because of his flexibility as a receiver and runner. He’s amassed remarkable stats thanks to his special blend of skills. In 2023, he led the league in rushing yards. This Saturday, expect the McCaffrey show to take advantage of a below average Green Bay defense.

Green Bay’s Issues with Defense

This season, the Packers’ defense has shown mixed results, especially when it comes to stopping the run. During their last two games against the 49ers, Green Bay gave up an average of 3.27 yards per carry. Even though McCaffrey wasn’t in San Francisco at the time of those games, the Packers’ defense will surely face serious difficulties this weekend with him on the field. In terms of permitted running attempts, Green Bay is ranked No. 26 in the NFL. This weekend won’t be any different for McCaffrey.

Head coach of the 49ers Kyle Shanahan is renowned for his inventive play calling and has a knack for finding holes in opposition defenses. Shanahan will surely have a few tricks up his sleeve to make sure his top running back receives plenty of touches with McCaffrey at his disposal. In blowouts, he has demonstrated that he will employ McCaffrey, and we anticipate the same here. 

It’s obvious that Christian McCaffrey is in a great position to have a huge game against the Green Bay Packers in the NFL Divisional Round when taking into account the previously listed elements. Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling, McCaffrey’s impact on the 49ers’ offense, the Packers’ defensive woes, and the significance of establishing the run in the playoffs all lead to McCaffrey reaching 18.5 rushing attempts in this crucial game.

C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+186)

As the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens gear up for their highly anticipated divisional round matchup this weekend, all eyes are on the young and talented quarterback C.J. Stroud. The rookie sensation has been making waves in his first NFL season, and many believe he is poised for a breakout performance against the Ravens.  

Since the start of the season, C.J. Stroud has led the Texans to a 10-7 record and an AFC South division championship. In his last game against the Cleveland Browns, the 22-year-old threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns, tying the rookie record for touchdown passes in a playoff game. Stroud’s ability to make big plays and lead his team to victory has been evident throughout the season, and he is only getting better as the stakes get higher.

The Ravens’ Defensive Struggles Against Deep Passes

While the Ravens have a strong defense overall, they have struggled against deep passes this season. C.J. Stroud is one of the league’s best deep-ball throwers, ranking No. 2 in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating on deep passes. With the Ravens’ secondary vulnerable to big plays, this could be the perfect opportunity for Stroud to showcase his arm and rack up passing touchdowns.

The Texans’ Offensive Weapons

C.J. Stroud is not alone in his quest for a big game against the Ravens. The Texans boast a talented group of receivers, including Nico Collins, who has been a favorite target for Stroud this season. With a deep and versatile group of pass-catchers, Stroud has the tools to exploit the Ravens’ defensive weaknesses and put-up big numbers on the scoreboard. Remember, he just dropped three touchdowns against the Browns, who have been the best pass defense all season.

As the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens prepare to face off in the Divisional Round, all eyes will be on C.J. Stroud to see if he can continue his impressive rookie campaign and lead his team to victory. With a high-powered offense, a strong arm, and a favorable matchup against the Ravens’ secondary, Stroud will likely have more than 1.5 passing touchdowns this weekend and is +186 at BetOpenly, which is too valuable to pass on.