Tomorrow’s Newspaper: Roger Lewis, Vance McDonald, and Week 11 Waiver Wire Prescience

by Ray Marzarella ·
Roger-Lewis-fantasy-football

Three of the four players mentioned in last week’s article saw Week 9 action.  Between those three players, a total of 41 fantasy points were scored.  Don’t thank me, thank the PlayerProfiler metrics.  As the weeks have gone by our process has improved, which makes it progressively easier to identify the kinds of players we need to be stashing/starting in the right spots.  Hitting on the right players this late in the season could be the difference between a championship and an offseason of shower crying.  So let’s hope our research nets us more late-season stashes-turned-pseudo starters like C.J. Prosise and DuJuan Harris.

On bye last week when he was our recommended QB stash, Jay Cutler (51.26-percent) walks into a juicy match-up against Tampa’s secondary.  I’m mentally preparing myself for a four-point fantasy game, as should you, but his Week 10 streamability can’t be denied.  DuJuan Harris (41.97-percent) is still available in far too many leagues given the fact that the 49ers have stated that they’re determining Carlos Hyde‘s availability on Sunday.  Harris has received a lot of recent love from the Underworld and could feasibly begin eating into Hyde’s work when he returns.  Adam Humphries (20.76-percent) is finally seeing a Snap and Target Share increase, and his rest-of-season schedule is tops at the receiver position.  You know what to do.  Injuries are opening up increased opportunity for Chris Conley (24.15-percent) and Marqise Lee (26.57-percent).  Though Lee has seemingly played his way into a bigger role regardless.  Larry Donnell played zero snaps against the Eagles, which makes Will Tye (29.84-percent) a feasible streaming candidate going forward if he can continue to hog the Giants’ TE looks.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins (35.93-percent) finally returned from injury last week (we promise, he even had a target), and Ladarius Green (35.76-percent)  returns this week.  C.J. Fiedorowicz (46.96-percent), now a weekly streamer, has already become more valuable than either Green or ASJ may become this year (although we can dare to dream).

All listed players are owned in less than 50-percent of MFL redraft leagues.

Case Keenum, QB, Rams (18.95-percent owned)

The hot rumor is that Jared Goff won’t play until the Rams are eliminated from playoff contention.  Which is good news for Case Keenum, who hasn’t gotten enough credit for how decidedly not-terrible he’s been this year.  He’s been a QB2 with 14.3 Fantasy Points per Game, while his efficiency has been subpar at best.  But it says something to his ability that two of his receivers (Brian Quick and Kenny Britt) land in the Top 10 in efficiency metrics like Production Premium, Target Premium and Fantasy Points per Target.  With Lance Kendricks also hitting his stride, recording three straight double digit games, Keenum has the weapons to be a potential difference-maker down the road if the Rams can start winning some games.

[Case Keenum]-Quarterback-Los Angeles Rams]

Case Keenum Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

For the first time in Case Keenum‘s career, he went through an entire offseason as his teams starting QB.  Despite the team using the top pick in the NFL Draft on a QB in Jared Goff, Keenum has managed to keep a hold of his starting role as we enter Week 10.  With 99 pass attempts over the last two weeks, and a Top 10 rest-of-season schedule, he has a chance to begin working his way into the streamer discussion as we enter the home stretch of the fantasy season.  If the Rams fall behind against the Jets, he could begin to exceed fantasy expectations as early as this week.

Peyton Barber, RB, Bucs (37.63-percent owned)

Doug Martin may or may not play against the Bears this week and may or may not be on a snap count if he does. Charles Sims and/or Jacquizz Rodgers may or may not return this season. Antone Smith won’t be returning this year.  We’ve seen lingering injuies get re-aggravated and/or eventually turn into season enders, regardless of how healthy said player was said to have been at the time of his return.  At a position where opportunity is the chief ingredient for fantasy production, Peyton Barber should be rostered for all of the above reasons.

[Peyton Barber]-Running Back-Tampa Bay Bucs]

Peyton Barber Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Even if Doug Martin suits up this week, the fact that his hamstring injury has kept him out since Week 2 makes him far from a lock to make it through the game unscathed.  Either way, the rash of injuries in the Tampa backfield is reason enough to roster Peyton Barber.  He’s a decent enough athlete, with a positive Production Premium in the little work he’s seen.  He also has the benefit of a tenth-ranked ROS schedule.   And with Jacquizz Rodgers seeing 30 carries in a game this year, it stands to reason that Barber could see weeks with potentially massive workloads if he gets the backfield to himself.

Roger Lewis, WR, Giants (2.85-percent owned)

The Giants have yet to rule out Victor Cruz for Monday night’s showdown with Cincinnati, but it’s not looking optimistic that he ends up playing.  Roger Lewis was already beginning to see more playing time as it is.  And with Cruz’s Snap Share decreasing even before he suffered this latest lower leg malady, now is the time to go get Lewis.  Even if he ends up playing, his recent lower body injury history is cause enough to stash Lewis in the event of a re-aggravation or a new injury.

[Roger Lewis]-Wide Receiver-New York Giants]

Roger Lewis Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

A player who has made the most of his limited athleticism, with a 16-TD season on his college resume, Roger Lewis is the kind of player who could end up as at least a solid double digit point-per-week contributor if given sufficient oportunity.  Despite Victor Cruz‘s decreased playing time before his injury, all three of the Giants’ top WRs have season-long Snap Shares that currently sit above 90-percent.  Unless the Giants start running two-TE sets with Will Tye and Larry Donnell, Lewis would see a massive opportunity spike if he entered the starting lineup.  It’s hard to get too excited about a player with six career targets, though he’s caught three and scored two TDs.  But his mix of proven talent at the collegitate level and projected opportunity at the professional level, on top of what he’s done already, make him hard to ignore.

Vance McDonald, TE, 49ers (35.88-percent owned)

In my quest to get every TE that I wrote about over the offseason for Late Round TE Roulette into a Tomorrow’s Newspaper piece, we turn our attention to Vance McDonald.  With 11 catches on 21 targets, he hasn’t seen a ton of work to this point.  But he’s out-snapped Garrett Celek in three straight games since returning from his hip injury.  His 17.4-point game in Week 9 was his best of the year, and his first double digit outing since Week 2.  And after seeing nine targets in his first four games, he’s seen 12 over the last two weeks.  He’s more of a stash than a stream at this point, but he’s been among the league’s most efficient TEs in limited action.

[Vance McDonald]-Tight End-San Francisco 49ers]

Vance McDonald Advanced Metrics Profile

It’s hard to imagine that a QB switch to Colin Kaepernick can be considered a positive outcome for the fantasy outlook of one of his pass catchers, yet here we are. Vance McDonald‘s Target Share has gone up exponentially since the 49ers made the switch to Kaepernick.  And even though he has the hardest projected remaining schedule among TEs, he has the athletic profile to be able to overcome those odds if he continues to see heavy target volume.  The same can’t be said of below-average athlete Garrett Celek.  With TDs of 65 and 75 yards scored this year, McDonald also represents more of a big play threat than most of the leagues TEs.  If he finds the endzone again this week against Arizona in a plus match-up, he’ll be an early Week 11 waiver target.  So stash him now while you can.