DFS Dreamers & Fantasy Streamers: Contrarian GPP and Deep Sleeper Plays for Week 10

by Eric McClung ·
jay-cutler-fantasy-football

Last week, Colin Kaepernick was a top-10 play at quarterback in the PlayerProfiler Weekly Player Rankings and by far the top streaming option at his position. Despite a quiet second half and doing very little running the ball, he delivered by throwing for nearly 400 yards and a pair of touchdowns en route to a QB1 week. The popular streaming quarterback we said to avoid was Ryan Tannehill. Unable to take advantage of a poor New York Jets secondary, Tannehill could only muster 149 passing yards and one touchdown. Over his last five games, he’s somehow managed to throw just three touchdown passes.

The wide receiver streamers were disappointing outside of a decent game from Dontrelle Inman. Unfortunately, Kenny Stills left the game with an illness and did not return. If available, the underowned Kenny Britt was suggested as a must add. He came through with a very late touchdown reception against Carolina.

At running back I may have been a week early on C.J. Prosise. However, his snap count is climbing and head coach Pete Carroll continues to talk him up. As Seattle becomes more and more reliant on the pass, it’s only a matter of time until Prosise surpasses Christine Michael on the depth chart.

To conclude our wrap up, we hit once again on the right streaming tight end. Lance Kendricks set season highs with 12 targets and 90 receiving yards. He’s a fine play once again this week, and perhaps going forward.

Quarterback

There are certainly a number of quality matchups to be found this week in the streamer bin. However, the quarterbacks attached to those matchups are uninspiring. If you missed out on Joe Flacco against Cleveland on Thursday night, settling on which quarterback to roll out is a tricky proposition indeed.

[Jay Cutler]-Quarterback-Chicago Bears]

Jay Cutler Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The top streaming choice for this weekend is Jay Cutler. The memes make us laugh, but this week he’s going to put up fantasy points against a Tampa Bay pass defense that ranks 20th in Football Outsiders DVOA. Defending the 6-3 Alshon Jeffery will be a challenge as the top three Buccaneers cornerbacks are all 5-10. Prior to the Week 9 bye, we saw Cutler complete 20 of 31 passes for 252 yards and a touchdown against a stout Minnesota Vikings defense. Despite missing both of his starting guards on the offensive line, Cutler was only sacked once and did not turn the ball over. Thankfully, both Kyle Long and Josh Sitton practiced fully on Thursday and figure to start against the Bucs. Cutler is likely to be with a different team next year and appears highly motivated to earn himself a new contract.

Next up is Carson Wentz against Atlanta’s 21st-ranked pass defense according to DVOA. The rookie is coming off a career-high 364 yards last week against the New York Giants, but was intercepted twice and did not score a touchdown. In fact, despite attempting a total of 90 passes over the last two games Wentz has just one touchdown pass to show for it. He began his career with three multi-touchdown efforts in his first four starts, but has only accounted for two scores in the last four games. Atlanta has allowed the second-most touchdown passes thus far and is one of only five teams yielding a passer rating against in triple digits.

Finally, Trevor Siemian heads to New Orleans coming off his first multi-touchdown game since Week 3. Over the last two games, Siemian has attempted 75 passes, but only completed 50.6 percent of those throws. The opposing Saints just allowed a season-high 398 yards to Kaepernick and gave up multiple touchdowns for the fifth time in six games.

Facing a historically bad run defense, Arizona running back David Johnson will be among the highest owned players in DFS this week. That is going to make Carson Palmer an inexpensive contrarian play at quarterback. Prior to last week’s bye, Palmer completed 35 of 46 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns against Carolina. Since Johnson is also a major weapon as a receiver, you don’t need to fade him to avoid a correlation issue with Palmer. Despite being named a starter and coming off a two touchdown game, wide receiver J.J. Nelson is cheap across daily fantasy sites while also remaining under-owned in seasonal formats. This game also sets up well for the speedster as San Francisco’s DVOA against the deep ball is dead last.

Wide Receiver

When putting this article together each week I often come across players that are under-owned, but don’t quite fall into the streamer category. For someone to get the streamer tag I’m looking near the sub-30 percent ownership range on ESPN and Yahoo. This week’s public service announcement for players that should be much higher owned are for Rishard Matthews (49-percent on Yahoo! and 32-percent on ESPN) and the aforementioned J.J. Nelson (40-percent on Yahoo! and 21-percent on ESPN).

Rishard Matthews is quickly distancing himself as the top wide receiver for Tennessee while J.J. Nelson’s fantasy football emergence has been well documented.

Dontrelle Inman Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Dontrelle Inman Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

As for the streamers, I have no issues rolling Dontrelle Inman back out for another week. Travis Benjamin (knee) aggravated his PCL injury and has yet to practice. San Diego has a bye in Week 11, so there’s little reason to force Benjamin into action against Miami. Over the last three weeks, Inman is averaging 7.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 62.0 yards per game. Feast your eyes on the 97th percentile Agility Score.

Jeremy Maclin (groin) has also not practiced this week and looks highly unlikely to suit up against Carolina. His absence would open up several streaming options in Kansas City depending on how things shake out over the course of the week. Albert Wilson could be thrust into a starting role after replacing Maclin following last week’s early exit. Wilson accumulated three receptions on eight targets for 42 yards and a touchdown. Very quietly, Tyreek Hill has caught three touchdowns over his last five games. As the most explosive receiver on the roster, he’s also been used in the backfield on occasion, totaling 51 rushing yards over the last three games. Chris Conley (quad) will also be a factor with Maclin sidelined assuming he’s able to play.

Despite playing against Atlanta in the week’s highest over/under according to Las Vegas, Jordan Matthews has a good chance of going under-owned, even if Desmond Trufant (shoulder) is out. The reason being his targets and production have been so erratic. Over his last five games, Matthews has only scored one touchdown while exceeding 75 receiving yards in only one other contest. An even cheaper way to get exposure to this game is through Mohamed Sanu. He appears to be over the separated shoulder that had limited his production for several weeks. Over the last two weeks, Sanu has recorded 84 and 74 receiving yards.

Running Back

I mentioned previously that I may have been a week early on C.J. Prosise. Either way, it’s becoming clear based on playing time and Pete Carroll’s quotes to the media that Seattle is looking to fix their struggling backfield. Last week, Seattle had Russell Wilson throw 26 times while handing it off to a running back just eight times. Prosise played 26 offensive snaps while Christine Michael saw the field 18 times. Curiously, Prosise was only targeted once. New England ranks middle of the road in DVOA against receiving backs, but LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard, and Le’Veon Bell have all had recent success coming out of the backfield against the Patriots. Las Vegas currently has Seattle has the second-largest underdog of the week. Playing from behind should keep the ball in the air and provide an influx of targets for Prosise.

Andre Ellington Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Andre Ellington Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

If you are in dire straits at running back, Andre Ellington is worth a dart throw. Yes, San Francisco is just that bad. In Week 6, Buffalo backup Mike Gillislee ran six times for 61 yards and a touchdown. In Week 7, Tampa Bay backup Peyton Barber dashed for 84 yards and scored on his dozen carries. Last week, both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower found the paint while combining for 245 rushing yards. Arizona played the 49ers on the road back in Week 5, but Ellington only got six carries for 19 yards. Unfortunately, that mark remains his highest workload to this point. There’s nothing safe about it, but Arizona is likely to find themselves with a significant lead in the fourth quarter and able to close things out with Ellington..

Even though I don’t believe he’ll have a lot of ownership and therefore be a contrarian option in tournaments, Chris Ivory is also in play as a cash game running back for me on DraftKings. For starters, he’s $900 less than Darren Sproles, most likely the highest owned cheap running back on the slate. However, Sproles loses red zone and goal line touches. That’s far less likely to happen to Ivory. Furthermore, Jacksonville has an excellent opportunity to win this game at home by hiding Blake Bortles against Houston’s seventh-ranked DVOA against the pass and opt to pound the rock with Ivory against their 28th-ranked DVOA against the run. If not for a goal line fumble last week that would have improved his line in the box score, Ivory might be a chalk play coming off his first 100-yard game of the season.

Tight End

As was the case last week, things are looking pretty ugly at tight end. Having said that, Lance Kendricks absolutely remains in play. He’s now been targeted six or more times in five games and has matched his season-high of seven receptions in consecutive weeks. The opposing Jets rank in the middle against tight ends in DVOA, but gave up big weeks to Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham earlier in the year. Aside from those two, the tight end competition has been rather light.

Lance Kendricks Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Lance Kendricks Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

If you wanted to fade Alshon Jeffery in tournaments, but still use a Chicago pass catcher with a good chance at grabbing a touchdown then Zach Miller makes a lot of sense.

Assuming he’s healthy, Delanie Walker (groin) gives you a natural stacking option with his chalky quarterback, Marcus Maroita.