NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 16

by Dookie Hogue · Upside Plays
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Hurts Snow Good

Two weeks of rest (a missed week due to injury and a bye week) seemed to be all that was needed for Jalen Hurts to return from an ankle sprain unscathed. Hurts appeared to have no limitations as his return to action produced three touchdowns (one passing and a pair of rushing touchdowns). Although his 29.64 DKPt (QB3) performance was against a depleted Washington Football Team defense ranked last in fantasy points allowed (23.5 DKPt/avg), he now faces a similarly bad Giants team.

Jalen Hurts Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

This NFC East matchup looks to be a pace up spot (No. 5 in Pace of Play). With more opportunities on offense and another week removed from injury, Hurts should be deployed even more as a rusher. Despite ranking dead last in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, the Giants have also had trouble on the ground. Expect the Giants to have their hands full with Hurts and company as they have allowed the No. 7 most Rushing Yards and No. 3 most Yards Before Contact (2.26). His 2.3 Red Zone Carries Per Game has led to his league leading 10 Rushing Touchdowns. Giddyup!

Quarterback Nice List

There’s a lot to like with Justin Herbert for Week 16. The Chargers lead the slate with a respectable 27-point implied Vegas team total while hosting the beleaguered Houston Texans. Expect a full complement of Herbert passes as the Chargers rank No. 4 in Passing Yards and could be without pass-game stud, Austin Ekeler. The team interestingly continues to pass the ball even when up as evidenced by their 58-percent Pass Percentage when leading by 7-plus (No. 4).

Justin Time For the Holidays

Depending on Austin Ekeler‘s status, Justin Jackson could be a slate-breaker at just $4,200. In Week 15, Jackson, not Ekeler, handled more work on the ground (Ekeler was being preserved while dealing with an ankle injury). Jackson’s 13 Carries and 36-percent Rushing Market Share paced the team. With an expanded role, he could be a critical points producer given the matchup. The Texans rank last in Rushing Yards Allowed and explosive runs of 10+ yards (s/o RotoGrinders).

Running Back Nice List

It appears the DK pricing algorithm still thinks Urban Meyer is the Jags head coach because James Robinson is still underpriced at $5,900. His Week 15 performance was fine as he 3xed his cheap salary with 17.8 DKPt. His 24 offensive opportunities was good for No. 7 amongst Week 15 running backs too. He now faces a bottom of the barrel Jets rush defense that has allowed a league worst 36.3 DKPt to the position.

Alexander Mattison will be heavy chalk with Dalvin Cook out on the COVID-19/Reserve list. While he looks to be the second heaviest-rostered running back on the slate, he’s still in consideration given the situation. This Rams/Vikings game looks to be the up-pace spot to attack on the slate (No. 1 Pace of Play). In his spot starts, Mattison has produced as a RB1 eclipsing 20 DKPt in each appearance.

Kristmas Kupp

Both wide-receiver studs from the Vikings/Rams game should top your “Want List” in Week 16. The Rams run the fastest situation neutral offense and should keep things up-tempo in the dome in Minnesota. There’s a lot to like with the matchup for both receivers too.

No team allows more fantasy production to receivers than the Vikings, so the preference is Cooper Kupp. His 32.9-percent (No. 1) Target Share is impressive, but over the last two games, that number has ramped up to an unimaginable 47-percent.

Wide Receiver Nice List

On the Vikings side of the ball, Justin Jefferson looks to be the runback du-jour. Projecting as the No. 2 wide receiver on the slate, the correlation of the Jefferson/Kupp pairing is also logical. Jefferson’s 29.0-percent (No. 4) Target Share is equally as impressive. The Rams allow a 64-percent Pass Percentage (No. 10) and the No. 5 most fantasy points to receivers (past four weeks). The Kupp/Jefferson pairing will be owned but at $9,100/$81,00, their pricey salaries may have some fantasy gamers opting for value plays at the position.

With the Buccaneers seemingly losing their whole offense to injuries, Antonio Brown looks to be the last man standing. Coming off a lengthy absence (ankle injury/suspension), Brown should be immediately thrust into a heavy workload for a diminished Bucs offense. At $4900, his mis-price helps to afford some of the aforementioned spend-ups. (Keep an eye on his availability.)

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Tight End Nice List

Dallas Goedert provides a nice value/ceiling combo at $5,100. The versatile tight end has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in back to back games for the Eagles. In Weeks 13 and 15, Goedert saw Target Shares of 27-percent and 35-percent (Week 14 was a bye). While you can run Hurts naked (without a pairing), Goedert looks to be the preferred stacking option with Hurts.

Dallas Goedert Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Staying with the same game, Rob Gronkowski should also see a more sizable role for the Bucs. His 11 Tom Brady Targets led the team in Week 15’s “body bag” game. Brady should again rely on Gronkowski. His 10.6 (No. 2) Average Target Distance and 1.22 Deep Targets Per Game leads the slate at the tight end position.