Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 16

by Edward DeLauter · Value Plays
justin-jefferson-fantasy-football

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

For this week we will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings. 

Paying Up

D.J. Moore  – DK: $5,700

Air Yards Value Score: 86.24

Air Yards: 1,392 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 40.5-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 769 (No. 3)

It seems as if every week we talk about D.J. Moore in this section and every week I am reminded about how disappointing he has been since Week four when he finished as the WR3 in the week.

Even with four consecutive weeks above 12.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, Moore just hasn’t flashed the same upside he did earlier in the season. Regardless, he has seen at least 97 Air Yards in the past three games, and could, in theory, post a boom week again. However, I much more comfortable playing him in cash formats than tournaments.

Justin Jefferson – DK: $8,100

Air Yards Value Score: 83.00

Air Yards: 1,719 (No. 1)
Air Yards Share: 44.9-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 765 (No. 4)

Ladies and gentleman, through 15 weeks of the NFL season I present to you your Air Yards leader, Justin Jefferson. He also leads the league in Air Yards Share as he has been THE Vikings passing game sans Adam Thielen. He is also only 79 Unrealized Air Yards away from leading the league in this category. Jefferson is an elite triple crown contender in all things Air Yards. Even with Thielen looking like he will return this week, the Jefferson airplane is already at Mach 5 and gaining speed.

Top-10 Value List

No. 10) Odell Beckham – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 35.55

Air Yards: 784 (No. 42)
Air Yards Share: 27.6-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 452 (No. 32)

No. 9) Van Jefferson – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 39.05

Air Yards: 1,013 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 24.3-percent (No. 48)
Unrealized Air Yards: 508 (No. 21)

Two Rams begin the top-10 value list. Somehow Odell Beckham is priced $200 less than Van Jefferson and this seems like a mistake. Over the past four weeks, Jefferson has only averaged 4.25 Air Yards more per game than Beckham, with this averaged highly skewed by a 170 Air Yard outing in Week 12. Further, Jefferson has only scored 3.2 fantasy points more than Beckham during this same four game stretch. Both of these receivers are solid plays this week against the a horrendous Vikings secondary however, they really should be priced the same and offer nearly identical boom upside. Feel free to roster whichever one you can fit in your budget in all formats.

Van Jefferson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Both of these receivers are solid plays this week against the a horrendous Vikings secondary however, they really should be priced the same and offer nearly identical boom upside. Feel free to roster whichever one you can fit in your budget in all formats.

No. 8) Bryan Edwards – DK: $3,200

Air Yards Value Score: 40.01

Air Yards: 775 (No. 44)
Air Yards Share: 19.0-percent (No. 64)
Unrealized Air Yards: 441 (No. 33)

Bryan Edwards scored a touchdown last week.  However, he only saw four targets and finished with eight receiving yards. He remains a highly volatile option in the Raider passing game thanks to his 15.2 (No. 6) Average Target Distance. He is best deployed as a ultra budget saving option in all formats.

No. 7) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 41.19

Air Yards: 892 (No. 34)
Air Yards Share: 26.0-percent (No. 44)
Unrealized Air Yards: 593 (No. 12)

Robby Anderson has made a bit of a resurgence since Joe Brady departed the Panthers. He has averaged 10 targets, 88 Air Yards, and 15.3 fantasy points in this two game span. Look for this trend to continue this week in a game the Panthers are likely going to play catch up in against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

No. 6) Jakobi Meyers – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 54.27

Air Yards: 1,021 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 29.9-percent (No. 28)
Unrealized Air Yards: 533 (No. 18)

Jakobi Meyers has seen at least 120 Air Yards in the past two games in which the Patriots attempted more then three passes. In those two games, he has averaged 10 targets and 13 fantasy points.

Meyers is a solid play in all formats this week with that type of target and Air Yard volume.

No. 5) Chase Claypool – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 57.99

Air Yards: 1,002 (No. 26)
Air Yards Share: 33.9-percent (No. 18)
Unrealized Air Yards: 472 (No. 27)

Chase Claypool makes his debut on the Air Yards value index coming off his worst game of season in which he scored only 1.9 fantasy points. Claypool also saw only 15 Air Yards last week. He should revert closer to his year long average of 83.5 Air Yards per game this week. Assuming he is able to reclaim that opportunity, he should be a volatile tournament option.

No. 4) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,400

Air Yards Value Score: 60.96

Air Yards: 1,036 (No. 22)
Air Yards Share: 29.7-percent (No. 29)
Unrealized Air Yards: 516 (No. 20)

Marvin Jones scored only 3.4 fantasy points last week. However, he saw the same amount of Air Yards (56) that he did in Week 14 when he scored 13 fantasy points. In this Jaguars offense, Jones has little upside and is best deployed as a budget saving option in cash formats.

No. 3) Darnell Mooney – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 61.72

Air Yards: 1,150 (No. 18)
Air Yards Share: 33.3-percent (No. 22)
Unrealized Air Yards: 563 (No. 15)

Darnell Mooney is back under $5,500 after a respectable performance last week in which he saw 78 Air Yards and scored 11.6 fantasy points. He should remain the Bears clear cut number one receiver if Allen Robinson remains sidelined. Even with Nick Foles throwing him the football, Mooney should be rostered in all formats.

No. 2) Emmanuel Sanders – DK: $4,000

Air Yards Value Score: 64.93

Air Yards: 1,100 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 27.1-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 567 (No. 13)

Emmanuel Sanders appears to be the last man standing after both Cole Beasley and the intriguing Gabriel Davis were ruled out of this week’s game against the Patriots with COVID-19. Assuming Sanders is back at full health, he should have no issue seeing boom-or-bust downfield targets from Josh Allen. He should be someone you want exposure to in tournaments.

No. 1) Courtland Sutton – DK: $4,200

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 1,326 (No. 7)
Air Yards Share: 36.3-percent (No. 14)
Unrealized Air Yards: 772 (No. 2)

Courtland Sutton has been very close to being redacted from the list for some time. He posted another fantasy dud last week scoring only 3.2 fantasy points despite seeing 119 Air Yards. Perhaps Drew Lock can unlock Sutton and make him something more than a tournament dart throw.

Good luck to everyone in Week 16. Merry Christmas, and may all your Air Yards be realized.