Welcome back to the latest edition of Risers and Fallers. Week 10 has concluded, and the Sunday slate had incredible performances that will shift our perspective on the NFL. We also saw a superstar quarterback in Kyler Murray return to action and deliver a victory. Unfortunately, we also saw plenty of underwhelming football. Let’s get started with the biggest risers from Sunday’s action, starting with a star receiver located in LA who doesn’t play for the Rams.
Keenan Allen, WR — Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen had himself a day on Sunday, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns in a loss against the Detroit Lions. This performance was nothing new for the veteran pass catcher; it was his fourth week where he will finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver. In the summer, hopes were high for Allen, as offensive coordinator Kellen Moore stated Allen would play the CeeDee Lamb role. With Mike Williams out for the season due to injury and a slow ramp-up for Quentin Johnston, there have been plenty of targets to keep Allen busy. Allen was a top-15 fantasy wide receiver going into the season. Now, with a depleted wide receiver room, he’s going to be forced targets for the rest of the year.
Keenan Allen is still so so so good pic.twitter.com/eHWJrqCfno
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) November 12, 2023
Dak Prescott, QB — Dallas Cowboys
I know it was against the Giants, but Dak Prescott played a flawless game on Sunday. Dak finished with a 74-percent completion rate, 404 passing yards, and four touchdowns. He now has a TD:INT ratio of 11:1 over his last three games. There has been a clear shift in the offensive approach for the Cowboys. Through Week 5, Prescott never finished inside the top-15 fantasy quarterbacks in any week. Over the last four games, he’s finished as the No. 3 fantasy QB or higher. This razor-sharp passing attack matches up against the Panthers next week, so the good times look to keep rolling for Prescott and the Cowboys.
#Cowboys QB Dak Prescott had a QBR of 97.2 (out of 100) in Week 10.
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 13, 2023
Noah Brown, WR — Houston Texans
With no Nico Collins, there were plenty of guesses on who would be the top receiver for the Houston Texans. But Noah Brown answered that question emphatically on Sunday. Brown finished the day with 172 receiving yards on seven receptions and trailed only Tank Dell in targets. Brown has produced back-to-back games with 150 receiving yards or more. After suffering a groin strain in Week 1, he was sidelined for four games and he’s made an impact instantly since his return in Week 6. Brown now holds the best Yards Per Target mark in the league (13.4). Even if Collins comes back next week, Brown will continue to get fed targets after showing the ability to make big plays consistently. He’s the downfield threat for this explosive offense.
Noah Brown has 51.5 fantasy points in his past two games. That represents 19% of his career output over six years.
Similar results for yardage…325 yards over past two games is 23% of his career total.
— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) November 13, 2023
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR — Detroit Lions
I know – another receiver, but Amon-Ra St. Brown is the top receiver for a Lions offense that shows no signs of slowing down. Sunday, Brown stuffed the stat sheets with eight receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown. He also joined Herman Moore and Calvin Johnson as the only Lions receivers with four consecutive games over 100 receiving yards.
St. Brown’s efficiency has been unmatched this year, with only one performance where he finished outside the top-20 wide receivers in fantasy football so far. Brown has been a smash selection and, frankly, should have been declared a Riser much sooner. Brown is No. 4 in Target Rate among all receivers, and No. 3 in Route Win Rate. His opportunity to play in the slot paired with his ability to get open is a promising combination for fantasy managers.
Saquan Barkley, RB — New York Giants
This has less to do with Saquon Barkley, and more to do with that thing the Giants call an offense. Barkley was held to 66 yards rushing on 13 attempts, but moving forward, we need to temper our expectations for Barkley. With the loss of Darren Waller, there is now no major receiving threat to take attention away from Barkley, allowing defenses to load the box. I’m not denying the talent of Barkley, but I’m not aware of any current player in the NFL that could produce quality fantasy numbers in this environment. When Tyrod Taylor returns, we could see an increase in production for Barkley, but for now, he is a volume-based low-end RB 2.
Saquon Barkley today at Giants practice. pic.twitter.com/4RqnN2mOIZ
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) November 10, 2023
Trevor Lawrence, QB — Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags were rolling, winning five games in a row. But against the 49ers, Lawrence fell apart, throwing two interceptions and finishing with a Passer Rating of 48.8. Yes, the 49ers defense is a formidable opponent, but we all expected more from Lawrence coming off a bye. Lawrence put together strong performances earlier in the year, but it was clear Travis Etienne was doing the heavy lifting.
If a defense can contain the Jags rushing attack, then Lawrence to carry the team. Lawrence ranks No. 31 in Pressured Completion Rate, and when he’s got to face off against a formidable pass rush, it can mean trouble. Have we seen enough from Lawrence to know that he can carry a team?
Tony Pollard, RB — Dallas Cowboys
During the summer, every fantasy analyst was high on Tony Pollard. He was projected to be The Guy on a high-end offense with the loss of Ezekiel Elliott. But it has not gone according to plan at all for the former Memphis Tiger. Pollard has scored two touchdowns all year, and they were both in Week 1 against the Giants. He’s gotten plenty of touches, but what’s alarming is what he has done with those touches. Pollard ranks No. 47 in Fantasy Points Per Opportunity among running backs, which is the mark of an inefficient player. To add more concern, Rico Dowdle was sensational with the ball in his hands against the Giants. Dowdle ended the game with more yards on fewer carries than Pollard. I wouldn’t want to rely on Pollard for the fantasy season.
Update: Tony Pollard has failed to score double-digit PPR points in five of his last six games. He didn't register a target today for the first time since Week 5 of last season.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 13, 2023
Will Levis, QB — Tennessee Titans
Will Levis is better than most expected. It’s also in the range of outcomes that he’s not as good as his supporters think he is. Levis started hot with a four-TD, zero-interception performance. But over the last two games, he’s thrown zero touchdowns and two interceptions. I do think Levis is good. Its not crazy to say he’s the second-best quarterback to come out of the draft.
But the last two starts have shown that either the Titans need to adjust the game plan around Levis or teams are figuring out the former Kentucky quarterback. Kyle Philips has been the leading receiver after two games, so a wide receiver upgrade could help him in the future. But for now, we must temper our expectations.
Keenan Allen, Dak Prescott, Noah Brown, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are the Risers this week. Saquon Barkley, Trevor Lawrence, Tony Pollard, and Will Levis are the Fallers. One takeaway from this list would be to go pick up Noah Brown. He’s become the downfield threat for C.J. Stroud, and Stroud is starting to make a case for MVP. And if a leaguemate is still interested in Tony Pollard, trade him as soon as possible. Now go make those waiver claims for week 11.