Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 14

by Taylor Smith, December 13, 2020

Maximizing your fantasy points per salary dollar is the key to cashing in DFS. If you want to afford the best cash plays on the slate, dumpster diving for underpriced value plays is the way to go. Here are the best DFS Flex values for Week 14 based on PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics.

J.D. McKissic, RB, Washington

DraftKings: $4900, FanDuel: $5300

J.D. McKissic is set to dominate snaps on Sunday against the 49ers with Antonio Gibson sidelined by a toe injury. His only competition comes in the form of Peyton Barber, who won’t be able to get much going against a San Francisco defense that ranks No. 8 in Defensive Rushing DVOA. McKissic offers explosiveness and elusiveness in the passing game, and these coaches know how to utilize his skills.

J.D. McKissic Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Washington has put McKissic in the slot on 64 (No. 1 among qualified RBs) snaps this season. He’s also seen an 18.8-percent (No. 2) Target Share and is averaging nine targets in Alex Smith’s five starts this season. While we should generally stay away from “one-trick ponies,” McKissic offers a high floor given his steady receiving volume. Now that we have lost Myles Gaskin this week, McKissic makes the most sense as the RB to pay down for in order to fit Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook into the same lineup.

DeAndre Washington, RB, Miami Dolphins

DraftKings: $4000, FanDuel: $4800

Myles Gaskin looked like an absolute smash at his elevated price this week. Now that he landed on the COVID list and is out, we get DeAndre Washington at the stone-minimum on DK and just $4800 on FD. While Gaskin has proven to be the preferred workhorse for the Dolphins, they did make a mid-season trade to nab Washington from the Chiefs earlier this season. The Dolphins have also shown zero trust in Washington’s competition, Patrick Laird and Lynn Bowden. While that sets up a nice little revenge narrative against his former team, the advanced metrics indicate a solid outing as well.

DeAndre Washington Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Washington has an underrated bell-cow profile. His 31.0 (69th-percentile) Body Mass Index suggests he’s built well enough to handle work between the tackles, and his 9.7-percent (72nd-percentile) College Target Share proves he’s a capable receiving RB. Washington also possesses a 4.49 (89th-percentile) 40-yard dash time, meaning he’s capable of ripping off long gains when given the opportunity. The last time the Dolphins were without Salvon Ahmed and Gaskin, they trusted him with 15 touches on 43.8-percent of the snaps.

The best way to defeat the Chiefs is with the ground game. Kansas City ranks No. 30 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and Miami has a stout defense. They should be able to keep the game competitive, setting up Washington for neutral Game Script touches. Even if they do fall behind, his pass-catching background from his Texas Tech days will keep him involved. His cheap price offers excellent salary relief for cash lineups looking to afford the high-priced QBs and RBs.

Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers

DraftKings: $5200, FanDuel: $5900

With D.J. Moore on the COVID list, Curtis Samuel expects to see a massive increase in volume. He’s already offered a solid floor, seeing at least five targets in seven straight games. While that target total will see a solid boost, Samuel has also been getting significant work on the ground. He’s compiled 27 rush attempts for 117 yards and two scores this season. With Christian McCaffrey also out with a new thigh injury, Samuel should be a focal point of the offense.

The Broncos have been a stingy secondary all season, but they will be without both of their starting CBs. Bryce Callahan is on IR and A.J. Bouye has just been suspended, leaving Michael Ojemudia and De’Vante Bausby to man the secondary. The last time the Broncos were in this situation, Matt Ryan posted a 284-yard, three-touchdown day and the Falcons scored 34 points.

Given his 6.0 (No. 105) Average Target Distance mark and history of rushing production, Samuel should dominate short-area work and get double-digit touches against this shorthanded Denver defense. He’s been among the most efficient fantasy players this season with 2.33 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Target and a +32.2 percent (No. 9) Target Premium. The stars are aligning for Samuel to have a career day.

Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys

DraftKings: $3800, FanDuel: $5300

Michael Gallup operated as Andy Dalton‘s clear favorite receiver in Week 13, seeing 11 targets against an elite Baltimore defense. He paced both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper with seven receptions and 86 yards while also finding the end zone. Gallup’s opportunity was even more impressive, with his 139 Air Yards being the second-most he’s logged this season. He’s clearly a trusted part of this passing game and has an astronomical ceiling.

Gallup now draws an exciting matchup against the Bengals. They haven’t allowed massive spike games to WRs in recent weeks due to Joe Burrow’s removal from the other side of the ball, but Cincinnati ranks No. 28 in Defensive Passing DVOA. They also rank No. 31 in explosive pass rate, matching Gallup’s strength.

This matchup does have the lowest total on the slate at 42.5 points, so this isn’t a flawless game environment. The hope is that the Cowboys let Dalton cook against his former team. Dallas averages 44.8 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays Per Game, so there’s a reasonable chance that we get some semblance of a shootout here.

Braxton Berrios, WR, New York Jets

DraftKings: $3000, FanDuel: $4800

Stone-minimum punt plays always help relieve salary in cash. With Denzel Mims out and Jamison Crowder highly questionable, Braxton Berrios presents the best punt option across all positions. He’s run out of the slot on 157 (No. 38) snaps, good for a 64.3-percent rate, making him Crowder’s direct replacement in this offense. Berrios has also produced in Crowder’s stead, averaging 7.5 targets and 13.3 fantasy points in the four games where he’s playing at least 70-percent of the snaps this season.

The Seahawks have given up a ridiculous 229 receptions and 2,707 yards to receivers this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Jets are massive 13.5-point underdogs, so we can project plenty of negative Game Script. The Seahawks are also a pass-funnel defense, ranking No. 13 in Defensive Rushing DVOA. Adam Gase won’t be able to justify running the ball into that stout front when they’re down 10 points in the second half, so we should get 30 dropbacks from Sam Darnold in this one.


See our best Breshad Perriman lineups on PlayerProfiler’s DFS Lineup Genius:


 

The big debate will be whether to play Berrios or Breshad Perriman ($3900 DK, $5800 FD) this week. Their roles are polar opposite, with Perriman seeing a 15.1 (No. 10) Average Target Distance to Berrios’ 7.1 (No. 101) mark. Darnold notably targeted Crowder in the slot seven times compared to four for Perriman on the perimeter last week. It looks as though he’s still more comfortable with the high-percentage throws over the middle. Berrios is also the cheaper option, which is always safer to go to in cash lineups.

Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears

DraftKings: $2900, FanDuel: $4600

Our TE punt of the week is Cole Kmet. The rookie out of Notre Dame officially replaced Jimmy Graham in the Chicago offense, playing 95.4-percent of the snaps last week. He saw seven targets, catching five for 37 yards and a score. Next up for Kmet is the Texans defense, which has surrendered the sixth-most receiving yards to TEs this season.

Kmet will still be fighting for scraps in the Bears offense, though. Allen Robinson commands a 24.8-percent (No. 10) Target Share, while Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller both get looks in the deep and intermediate areas on the field. Kmet’s 7.5 Average Target Distance mark is the lowest among all of these pass catchers, so that is where he can thrive. Being a security blanket for Mitchell Trubisky isn’t the worst thing in the world, and it would be virtually impossible for him to put up a zero this week.