Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 11

by Edward DeLauter · Value Plays

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings. 

Paying Up

D.J. Moore – DK: $5,900

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 973 (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 39.9-percent (No. 9)
Unrealized Air Yards: 525 (No. 4)

D.J. Moore returns to this article after making an appearance entering Week 9. Unfortunately, Moore has failed to record a double digit finish in fantasy points since this time and his red hot start to the season where he averaged over 22 fantasy points per game is looking like a mirage. But wait, that mirage in the desert may actually be the waterhole that you have been searching for.

Moore is still averaging over 70 Air Yards the past four weeks and has the chance to play with potentially his most productive quarterback this season in Cam Newton. Moore should be played in all formats this week.

Brandin Cooks – DK: $6,000

Air Yards Value Score: 97.51

Air Yards: 876 (No. 14)
Air Yards Share: 44.0-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 345 (No. 21)

Brandin Cooks retook his league lead in Air Yards after seeing 13 targets and 118 Air Yards en route to 11.6 fantasy points. Cooks fantasy floor was also strengthened by the return of Texans quarterback Tyrod Taylor. In the three games the Taylor and Cooks have played together Cooks is averaging 117 Air Yards and 17.5 Fantasy Points Per Game. Regardless of matchup, Cooks appears to have a WR2 floor and WR1 ceiling seeing this much opportunity in the Texans offense.


Top-10 Value List

No. 10) Quez Watkins – DK: $3,700

Air Yards Value Score: 33.98

Air Yards: 439 (No. 54)
Air Yards Share: 18.9-percent (No. 61)
Unrealized Air Yards: 211 (No. 53)

Admittedly, Quez Watkins skipped ahead a couple of players on the list. So if you have any interest in playing Sammy Watkins (DK:$4,000), Allen Robinson (DK: $4,900), and Kalif Raymond (DK $5,000) over Quez in Week 11, feel free. However, you may be missing out on the best value at the wide receiver position. With Dallas Goedert nursing a brain injury, and questionable to play, Watkins looks likely to to soak up the majority of vacated targets after seeing six targets and a season high two red zone targets last week.  Quez is the preferred salary saving play of the week.

No. 9) Marquez Callaway – DK: $4,700

Air Yards Value Score: 48.95

Air Yards: 599 (No. 39)
Air Yards Share: 27.4-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 295 (No. 36)

Marquez Callaway has scored double digit fantasy points in two consecutive weeks and has averaged 87.5 Air Yards during this time. While the return of Tre’Quan Smith (DK: $4,400) has lowered Callaway’s ceiling, the former undrafted rookie free agent still leads the Saints in Air Yards through the past four weeks. He remains a viable cash game play.

No. 8) A.J. Green – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 50.48

Air Yards: 586 (No. 40)
Air Yards Share: 26.1-percent (No. 43)
Unrealized Air Yards: 205 (No. 57)

A.J. Green hasn’t been able to deliver much fantasy production with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined. Through the past two weeks, Green has averaged less than double digit fantasy points including a performance last week where he caught only one reception for four yards.

However, Green has accumulated 32 more Air Yards than teammate Christian Kirk (DK: $5,700) during this time. For this reason, Green should find his way into some tournament lineups this week if Hopkins is unable to play again.

No. 7) Bryan Edwards – DK: $4,100

Air Yards Value Score: 53.38

Air Yards: 619 (No. 34)
Air Yards Share: 23.3-percent (No. 52)
Unrealized Air Yards: 338 (No. 23)

In prior iterations of this list we discuss how Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs played the same field stretching role with both players near the top of the league in Average Target Distance. With Ruggs no longer in the NFL, Edwards has continued to play this role with no one joining him. While this hasn’t resulted in more targets for Edwards he has seen at least 81 or more Air Yards through the past two games and is a great tournament dart throw that can finish as a WR1 like he did last week scoring 17.8 fantasy points.

No. 6) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 54.63

Air Yards: 635 (No. 32)
Air Yards Share: 26.1-percent (No. 44)
Unrealized Air Yards: 468 (No. 9)

I detailed my internal struggles with Robby Anderson last week and just when I thought I was out, I get pulled back in. Anderson was able to score a touchdown last week and finished as the WR23 on the week with 13.7 fantasy points.

Anderson is worthy of a tournament dart throw this week on the chance that Cam Newton plays like classic Cam. However, his Air Yards usage the past three weeks is highly concerning as he has failed to clear 20 Air Yards a game the past two weeks.​

No. 5) Darnell Mooney – DK: $5,200

Air Yards Value Score: 59.73

Air Yards: 637 (No. 31)
Air Yards Share: 32.1-percent (No. 24)
Unrealized Air Yards: 268 (No. 42)

Darnell Mooney has been the primary beneficiary of Justin Fields recent uptick in production. Mooney has consecutive double digit fantasy point finishes over the past two weeks. He also leads the Bears with 210 Air Yards over the last two games and leads the Bears in Air Yards on the season. Assuming Fields continues to play well, Mooney should be rostered in all formats in week 11.

No. 4) Corey Davis – DK: $5,000

Air Yards Value Score: 62.78

Air Yards: 623 (No. 33)
Air Yards Share: 33.2-percent (No. 21)
Unrealized Air Yards: 276 (No. 40)

Corey Davis returned to the Jets lineup in week 10 and resumed where he left off as the Jets go-to receiver in the passing game. He led all Jets receivers in targets with seven, and led the Jets with 76 Air Yards. He is a great play in all formats.

No. 3) Tee Higgins – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 65.71

Air Yards: 653 (No. 30)
Air Yards Share: 35.8-percent (No. 17)
Unrealized Air Yards: 346 (No. 19)

Tee Higgins is a buy low. He is essentially the non-efficient version of his teammate Ja’Marr Chase. In the weeks in which both players were healthy Higgins trails Chase by only two total targets and 79 total Air Yards.

Higgins is seeing roughly the same amount of volume as the rookie receiver but just hasn’t been able to capitalize on it. Look for Higgins to smash this week against the Raiders.

No. 2) Marvin Jones – DK: $5,200

Air Yards Value Score: 68.80

Air Yards: 753 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 31.3-percent (No. 26)
Unrealized Air Yards: 389 (No. 13)

Marvin Jones hasn’t finished with a double digit fantasy performance the past three weeks. However he leads the Jaguars wide receivers with 219 Air Yards during this time.

With the Jaguars set to face a 49ers defense that just limited the Rams passing attack, Jones makes for a great contrarian play in tournaments that can pay dividends as the Jaguars preferred vertical threat.

No. 1) Emmanuel Sanders – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 87.76

Air Yards: 969 (No. 9)
Air Yards Share: 31.6-percent (No. 25)
Unrealized Air Yards: 509 (No. 6)

Emmanuel Sanders has underwhelmed since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye averaging only 5.7 Fantasy Points Per Game in the three games after the bye. However, he is averaging almost 100 Air Yards per game since the bye and is tops in the league with a 18.3 Average Target Distance. Look for Sanders to haul in a long touchdown at some point. When he does you will want him in your tournament lineup.

Good luck to everyone in Week 11. May all your Air Yards be realized.