PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Jeffrey Waalkes looks at 2025 QB Values to target in drafts.
As we gear up for 2025 fantasy football drafts, one of the most important questions remains the same: how accurate is the market at setting expectations for quarterbacks? Every summer, managers spend months preparing their boards and studying ADP trends — but when the dust settles, how well does that early confidence hold up?
Looking back at 2024, quarterbacks carried their lowest correlation between draft position and per-game scoring among top-24 picks since 2010. For top-12 selections, it was their worst hit rate since 2019. Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels were the only QBs drafted inside the top 12 who outperformed expectations. Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Dak Prescott all fell multiple tiers below their draft cost.
Even outside the QB1 range, things weren’t much prettier. Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford all finished below ADP expectations despite being drafted in the QB13–QB20 window. On the other hand, managers who invested late-round capital into Jared Goff (QB15 ADP), Baker Mayfield (QB21), Bo Nix (QB23), or Sam Darnold (QB31) struck gold. Each closed the season as a top-12 scorer.
Applying to 2025
So, what’s the lesson? While QB1s still produced strong weekly ceilings — Josh Allen, Jackson, Hurts, and Daniels led the way — fantasy drafters continue to overpay for pocket passers with limited rushing upside. The numbers remain clear: rushing production is the strongest out for quarterbacks when passing stats falter. The past 10 QB1 overall scorers all averaged at least 3.6 rushing points per game, with eight surpassing 4.0. Meanwhile, non-rushing quarterbacks like Mahomes, Stroud, Love, and Prescott finished below cost in 2024.
Heading into 2025, the quarterback pool feels thinner. There are four elite dual-threat options at the top (Allen, Jackson, Hurts, Daniels), but after that, managers must carefully weigh cost versus rushing upside.
Let’s dive into a few names who stand out based on where they’re being drafted this year.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Over the past five seasons, Prescott’s biggest opponent hasn’t been a division rival — it’s been the injury report. He’s missed 25 games since 2020, including 11 in 2020, five in 2022, and nine more in 2024. When healthy, however, Prescott has been as reliable as they come, finishing as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in every season where he’s logged at least 16 games. His production has been buoyed by a Cowboys offense that has steadily leaned more on Dak’s arm. Since 2020, only four NFL teams have attempted more dropbacks.
The 2025 landscape presents both opportunity and questions. Brian Schottenheimer takes over as head coach and play-caller, which could shift offensive tendencies. George Pickens steps in to replace Brandin Cooks as a primary weapon alongside CeeDee Lamb, and the offensive line got younger with the addition of rookie Tyler Booker. On paper, the supporting cast still looks strong, but Dak’s value hinges on his ability to stay on the field.
If he strings together a full season, Prescott has proven he can push into the QB1 mix and reward drafters who wait on the position. But given his recent injury history, drafters will need to weigh the upside of his production against the very real risk that availability — not talent — determines whether he returns value at his current ADP.
Justin Fields, New York Jets
QB Justin Fields’ Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Justin Fields has been one of the most polarizing fantasy quarterbacks in recent memory. We’ve seen the highs — over 19.5 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 2023, plus a QB6 finish through six weeks last year. We’ve also seen the lows, including losing his job to Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh in 2024.
Now with the Jets, Fields finally gets a chance to reset in an offense that promises to play fast and attack downfield. His rushing upside is unquestioned, and with weapons like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, he has the tools to put together a top-10 fantasy season. The risk is obvious — Fields has yet to prove he can hold down a long-term starting gig, and his passing production still lags behind the top-tier options.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love’s Advanced Metrics Profile
On paper, Jordan Love doesn’t fit the mold of a fantasy difference-maker. He’s more of a pocket passer with limited rushing output, and as history shows, those profiles tend to underperform versus ADP. But here’s the wrinkle: Love’s price has fallen far enough to be interesting.
Love finished 2024 banged up and underwhelming, but his underlying efficiency offers reasons for optimism. He ranked fourth in the league at 8.0 yards per attempt, threw 26 total touchdowns, and was heavily involved in red-zone opportunities (41 percent of team plays). He even sprinkled in a bit of rushing utility with 11 red-zone carries.
Conclusion: Draft Smart, Not Expensive
The 2024 season reminded us once again that quarterback remains a high-floor, low-surprise position — but draft cost matters more than ever. Pocket passers drafted early can sink teams if efficiency slips, while dual-threat quarterbacks provide multiple paths to fantasy production.
This year, Allen, Jackson, Hurts, and Daniels form a clear top tier that’s worth the price. After that, things get murkier. Dak is a steady option if he can stay on the field. Justin Fields is the ultimate swing-for-the-fences pick, and Jordan Love is cheap enough to justify as a secondary option.
The key takeaway: don’t chase passing volume for the sake of it. Chase efficiency, rushing upside, and touchdown equity. History says those are the traits that truly move the needle. And those are the quarterbacks who help win fantasy championships.
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