PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Dan Fornek presents his NFC Hot Takes.
The Hall of Fame game has come and gone, signaling the official start of the 2025 NFL season. Recently, PlayerProfiler broke down one hot take for each AFC team for the 2025 season. Today, we will do the same for all 16 NFC squads.
All the hot takes you will read below are researched and backed by PlayerProfiler’s excellent data reports and advanced metrics. Also, be sure to check out PlayerProfiler’s World Famous Draft Kit to prepare for your upcoming fantasy leagues.
Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr. is a top 12 wide receiver in fantasy points per game.
Marvin Harrison Jr.‘s rookie season was a disappointment, given his status as a generational wide receiver prospect. The fact that fellow rookies Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Ladd McConkey outproduced him didn’t help either. But by no means was it a terrible season for a rookie.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Advanced Stats & Metrics
Harrison caught 62 of 116 passes for 885 yards and eight touchdowns in his first season. Harrison was frequently used as a contested catch receiver and deep target, leading to an inefficient catch rate (68.1 percent) and a lack of chemistry with Kyler Murray.
The rookie was sixth in the NFL in air yards (1,566), seventh in air yards share (42.3 percent) and deep targets (26), and third in win rate against man coverage (42.8 percent). Unfortunately, he was also fifth in unrealized air yards (829). He finished as the WR39 in PPR points per game (11.6), but was the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game (15.8).
There is still hope for Harrison in his second season. The Cardinals didn’t add any relevant competition to their pass-catching group in 2025. Harrison also bulked up to better handle the physicality of contested catches. There is also hope that the Cardinals will find more creative ways to get him the ball, rather than relying on deep shots down the field.
2025 will be the season the Cardinals work to unlock the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. finishes as a top 15 quarterback in fantasy points per game.
We got to see three games of Michael Penix Jr. as the starter for the Atlanta Falcons in 2024, and the results were mixed. On one hand, his counting stats left a lot to be desired (58 percent completion rate for 737 yards and three touchdowns with three interceptions). On the other hand, we saw that Atlanta was not afraid to let their first-round rookie air it out (33.3 attempts per game) while fighting for playoff contention.
Michael Penix Jr. Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Among quarterbacks with 30+ drop-backs from Weeks 16 to 18, Penix was first in average depth of target (10.3), fourth in deep throws (14), and had zero turnover-worthy throws on 100 attempts. According to PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, the rookie had as many money throws (5) as danger plays (5) in his 105 passes as a rookie.
Penix has had an entire offseason to prepare as a starter and enters 2025 with a strong offensive line and one of the better pass-catching groups in the NFL. There is also a chance that the Falcons will utilize his rushing ability more in his second season.
Strictly as a passer, Penix was the QB20 in his three-game stint as a starter. If he takes a reasonable step in 2025, he can be a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside.
Carolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan finishes as a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy.
Tetairoa McMillan was one of the most scrutinized prospects in the draft cycle despite averaging 87.0 receptions, 1,360.5 receiving yards, and 9.0 touchdowns during his final two seasons at Arizona. According to PlayerProfiler’s advanced metrics, McMillan posted a 91st percentile Dominator Rating (44.4 percent) and a 92nd percentile college target share (30.9 percent).
Tetairoa McMillan Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Ultimately, his profile as an X receiver prevailed over the scrutiny when the Panthers selected McMillan with the eighth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He now becomes the unquestioned alpha wide receiver in an ascending Carolina offense with Bryce Young at quarterback.
Young looked to be the next big bust at quarterback before putting together a strong stretch of games from Weeks 8 to 18 last season. During that stretch, the second-year quarterback completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 2,104 yards and 15 touchdowns with just six interceptions. Even more impressive was that he did that with a pass-catching group consisting of Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and Ja’Tavion Sanders.
During that stretch, Young averaged the fifth-highest average depth of target (9.2) and the eighth-highest deep throw percentage (14.1 percent). Young also had the 14th-highest first-read throw rate (68.3 percent) despite lacking a receiver capable of dominating targets.
McMillan instantly steps into that role for Young in 2025. His ability to win contested catches on the outside and over the middle of the field will give Young a go-to target on any passing play. That volume will make him a WR2 as a rookie.
Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze outscores D.J. Moore in fantasy points per game in 2025.
2024 was a disaster for the Bears’ offense, but the player who had the worst of it was arguably rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze.
Odunze caught 54 of 101 targets for 734 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie, finishing as the WR56 in PPR points per game (8.5). Despite the poor production, there were some positive signals from Odunze’s first season. He finished 14th among wide receivers in air yards (1,398), 11th in average target distance (13.8) and deep targets (23), and 10th in red zone targets (18).
Unfortunately, he also had the second-most unrealized air yards (917). Odunze was 75th among receivers in yards per route run (1.33) and 100th in target accuracy (5.5).
Odunze will benefit greatly from Chicago’s new head coach, Ben Johnson, in 2025. Johnson has already heaped praise upon Odunze, calling him a prototypical X receiver who can win contested matchups and is a detailed route runner.
Johnson is known for maximizing the talents of his weapons during his tenure as Detroit’s offensive coordinator. From the sounds of it, Odunze is a player who will be targeted early and often. He is just one year removed from being a top 10 draft pick, thanks to his combination of size and speed.
Rome Odunze Advanced Stats & Metrics
In 2025, Odunze will take hold of the WR1 role in Chicago and finish as the highest scoring skill player in Chicago’s offense. The sky is the limit for the young, ascending receiver.
Dallas Cowboys
George Pickens is a top 20 wide receiver in fantasy.
George Pickens has been an impactful wide receiver over the last three seasons, but he hasn’t had a high-end fantasy impact thanks to his time in the Steelers’ offense. Through three seasons, Pickens averaged 97.7 targets, 58 receptions, 947 receiving yards, and four touchdowns per season. He has never finished above the WR35 in fantasy points per game.
That is set to change in 2025.
Pickens was traded from the Steelers to the Dallas Cowboys this offseason, locking him in as the complement in the offense to CeeDee Lamb. The Steelers had the 29th most pass attempts in the NFL last season (29.4) with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback. The Cowboys had the third-most pass attempts (37.5) despite Dak Prescott playing only eight games.
Last season, Pickens was fourth among wide receivers in deep targets (29) and was the third-best wide receiver in Player Profiler’s Explosive Rating (127.8). Unfortunately, his production was suppressed by a run-heavy offense and the 55th target accuracy (6.3) among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb will be the unquestioned lead receiver for Dallas, but there is plenty of room for a secondary weapon to get there in fantasy. Pickens will be the most talented player Lamb has shared the receiver room with since joining Dallas.
The Cowboys have averaged 36.7 passing attempts per game with head coach Brian Schottenehimer calling plays. An increase in passing volume will push Pickens to a top-20 wide receiver finish as a result.
Detroit Lions
Jameson Williams outscores Amon Ra. St-Brown in fantasy PPG.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as consistent as any player in fantasy over the last three seasons. St. Brown has averaged 150.3 targets, 113.3 receptions, 1,313.0 receiving yards, and 11.6 touchdowns per season. He has scored at least 16.0 PPR points per game each of the last three years with two WR4 finishes.
However, 2024 was the first time we got an extended look at 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams without an injury or a suspension. Williams caught 58 of 91 targets for 1,001 yards and seven touchdowns, finishing as the WR23 in PPR points per game (14.2).
More importantly, Williams showed he wasn’t just a deep threat but had a more diverse route tree. Williams finished fifth among wide receivers in yards per target (11.0) and sixth in yards per reception (17.3) despite being just 45th in average target distance (11.4).
2025 will be the year we see a significant shift in Detroit’s passing attack. The Lions have a new offensive coordinator (John Morton) who has spent all summer heaping praise upon the growth Williams has made from last season. Additionally, Amon-Ra St. Brown is healthy now, but he had a minor knee surgery in the offseason that could set him back.
Both players will be fantasy relevant, but Williams has the pedigree and explosiveness to become a game-breaking wide receiver. Williams won’t have as many targets as St. Brown, but he will do more with the work he gets, which will lead him to outscore his veteran counterpart in 2025.
Green Bay Packers
Jayden Reed finishes as a top 15 wide receiver.
Jayden Reed couldn’t build upon his successful rookie season (WR26, 13.6 PPG) in fantasy football in 2024. Reed had more receiving yards (857) and yards per reception (15.7), but had fewer targets (75), receptions (55), and touchdowns (6).
To this point, the biggest hindrance to Reed’s fantasy production has been his role as a slot-specific wide receiver. Reed was 73rd in route participation (72.7 percent) and 10th in slot snaps (416) in 2024. Reed finished first among all wide receivers in fantasy points per target (2.63) and was second in target separation (2.40).
This summer, Matt LaFleur hinted that the team would try to get Reed on the field more on two-receiver sets in 2025. If that happens, his fantasy value could skyrocket. The only thing holding Reed back in fantasy has been a limited role. If that ends, he will finally be able to reach his potential as a top 15 receiver in fantasy.
Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams finishes outside the top 15 running backs.
Many faded Kyren Williams in 2024 under the belief that Williams couldn’t repeat the volume he had in 2023 (228 carries for 1,144 yards with 32 receptions for 206 yards and 15 total touchdowns) when he finished as the RB2 in fantasy (21.3 PPG).
The faders were both right and wrong. Williams handled even more volume in 2024 (316 carries for 1,299 yards with 34 receptions for 182 yards and 16 total touchdowns), yet his fantasy scoring dropped him to the RB10 (17.0 PPG).
Williams dominated most of the opportunity metrics for running backs in 2024. He finished first in snap share (88.4) and red zone touches (77). Williams was also second in opportunity share (82.8 percent) and third in total carries (316). He also posted the fifth-most-weighted opportunities (252.4).
Unfortunately, his efficiency metrics were far less impressive. Williams finished outside the top 35 running backs in yards per touch (4.2, 47th), juke rate (20.3 percent, 29th), and explosive rating (89.3, 35th). He was also 52nd in yards created per touch (2.78) and 63rd in expected points added (-1.9).
The Rams added another running back to their backfield in the draft with Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round. Unlike 2024 third-round pick Blake Corum, Hunter adds an explosive element to the offense that could serve as a complement to Williams instead of a replacement.
Williams’s fantasy value is nearly completely tied to his volume, which means he needs to maintain his stranglehold on the Rams’ touches to be a top running back. That stranglehold will loosen in 2025, forcing him to finish outside the top 15 running backs in fantasy points per game.
Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Mason finishes as a top 24 running back in 2025.
Christian McCaffrey‘s injury gave us a brief glimpse into what Jordan Mason can do with a larger workload, and the results were outstanding in real life and fantasy football. From Weeks 1 through 5, Mason averaged 21.0 carries for 107.2 yards and 1.4 receptions for 13.2 receiving yards per game with three touchdowns. Mason was the RB11 in PPR scoring (16.6 PPG) despite his limited receiving ability.
Jordan Mason Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Unfortunately, a shoulder injury, the brief return of Christian McCaffrey, and an ankle injury significantly reduced his role and ultimately ended his season early. It looked like Mason would once again be relegated to a pure handcuff role behind Christian McCaffrey in 2025. His fantasy outlook improved greatly after a trade sent him to Minnesota to complement Aaron Jones.
Jones is coming off a career-high 306 touches in his age-30 season. The Vikings tried to find a complement to him in 2024, but neither Cam Akers nor Ty Chandler was up to the task. Mason has already proven he can handle a sizeable workload in a small sample size and will certainly have a consistent weekly role with the Vikings.
Minnesota has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL heading into 2025 (if Christian Darrisaw is healthy), which will only make Mason more efficient as a rusher. There are already whispers that Mason will have a solid workload and potentially the goal-line touches in Minnesota.
Mason will get enough work to be on the weekly RB2 radar in fantasy. The Vikings are expected to score a lot of points, which will allow him to have enough touchdowns to elevate his fantasy ceiling even higher. He will finish as an RB2 in 2025, even if Aaron Jones stays healthy all season.
New Orleans Saints
Rashid Shaheed finishes as a top 20 wide receiver.
Most of the conversation about the Saints’ pass-catching group revolves around Chris Olave. However, Rashid Shaheed was in the middle of a breakout season before tearing his meniscus in 2025.
In six games, Shaheed caught 20 of 41 passes for 349 yards and three touchdowns. He was the WR31 in fantasy points per game (13.3), but that was greatly impacted by a zero against Philadelphia. He scored at least 15.0 fantasy points in four of six games with three top 15 finishes.
Shaheed finished third among wide receivers in route win rate (55.3 percent) and sixth in win rate vs man coverage (41.4 percent) in his limited sample size. He has been healthy and participating in training camp, earning rave reviews for his play throughout the summer.
A knee injury robbed us of an amazing season from Shaheed in 2024. However, it is also keeping his ADP suppressed in 2025. Shaheed will finish what he started in 2024 and finish as a top 20 wideout in 2025.
New York Giants
Malik Nabers finishes as the WR1 in fantasy.
Malik Nabers was everything we thought he would be and more as a rookie. Nabers finished as the WR6 in PPR points per game (18.2), catching 109 of 170 targets for 1,204 yards and seven touchdowns in 15 games. The feat is even more impressive considering those passes were being thrown by Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle.
Malik Nabers’ Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
As a rookie, Nabers finished first in target share (34.9 percent), second in target rate (31.2 percent), fourth in air yards (1,618), and third in air yards share (44.8 percent). He was first among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (23.8).
No matter who wins the quarterback job in New York, it will be better than anybody who threw Nabers a pass in 2024. Nabers will see a boost if it is Russell Wilson because his accuracy on deep passes (46.7 percent, second among quarterbacks in 2024) can unlock a new element to Nabers’ game.
Nabers could have been the WR1 in fantasy as a rookie, given his target share and explosive playmaking. He will do it in 2025 with an upgrade in quarterback play.
Philadelphia Eagles
A.J. Brown finishes as a top-five wide receiver in 2025.
A.J. Brown continued to be one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL in 2024. The veteran caught 67 of 97 targets for 1,079 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games, finishing as the WR12 in PPR points per game (16.7).
According to PlayerProfiler’s advanced metrics, Brown was a top five wide receiver in target share (34.4 percent, second), air yards share (47.0 percent, second), yards per route run (3.16, second), yards per target (11.1, fourth), and yards per team pass attempt (3.49, first). He also had the fourth-highest Dominator Rating (38.3 percent) and the highest Explosive Rating (133.1).
A knee injury slowed him down a bit, and a hamstring injury cost him three games, but the receiver still produced. The bigger hindrance to his value was the fact that the Eagles so thoroughly dominated their opponents that they didn’t need to pass. Philadelphia averaged the fewest pass attempts per game (25.7) and had the lowest pass rate over expectation (-8.7 percent) in 2024.
Philadelphia will once again have a strong defense, but some key injuries along the defensive line (Milton Williams and Josh Sweat) and a harder schedule could lead to closer games. That increase in target share will allow Brown an opportunity to return to his dominant form in fantasy.
San Francisco 49ers
Jauan Jennings finishes as a top 20 wide receiver
There is a mild level of concern regarding this hot take, given that Jauan Jennings is battling his way through a calf injury, which notoriously has a high recurrence rate. But he has roughly five weeks to get healthy, so we ride on.
Jennings had a breakout of sorts in 2024, catching 77 of 113 passes for 975 yards and six touchdowns in 15 games. He finished as the RB25 in PPR points per game (14.0) and was the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game (16.1).
From Weeks 10 to 18 (after Brandon Aiyuk went down with an injury), Jennings caught 52 of 77 targets for 571 yards and three touchdowns. He ranked 12th among wide receivers in target share (25.1 percent) and 11th in targets per route run (0.29). Jennings was the first read on 32.7 percent of his targets during that sample size.
If he can recover from the calf injury, he’s set to have another big season in 2025 thanks to the Deebo Samuel trade and Aiyuk’s injury recovery. He will follow up a strong 2024 with a top 20 fantasy season in 2025.
Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker finishes as a top 5 running back in PPG.
Kenneth Walker was on track to have the best season of his career behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL before calf and ankle injuries limited him to just 11 games played.
Walker had 153 carries for 573 yards and seven touchdowns, but took a legitimate step as a pass catcher, setting career-highs in targets (53), receptions (46), and receiving yards (299) with a touchdown. Walker finished as the RB12 in fantasy points per game (16.5), but was the RB6 in expected points per game (17.7).
Kenneth Walker III Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
The knock on Walker has always been his receiving ability, but in 2024, he finished fourth among running backs in target share (13.8 percent), fifth in route participation (51.8) and catch rate (86.8), and 11th in routes run (227). If he can replicate that, his ceiling gets even higher in fantasy football.
The Seahawks still have a terrible offensive line, but new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is installing a wide zone blocking scheme to minimize the impact of that in 2025. Kubiak spent his last three seasons with Denver, San Francisco, and New Orleans, so he also understands the importance of utilizing the running back as a pass catcher.
The biggest hurdle for Walker and fantasy greatness in 2025 is his ability to stay on the field. If he can stay healthy, he is poised to have the best fantasy season of his career.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin does not finish as a top 36 wide receiver.
Chris Godwin was going to break fantasy football in 2024 before an ankle injury in Week 7 ended his season early. From Weeks 1 to 7, he was fourth in targets (61), first in receptions (50), and second in receiving yards (576) and touchdowns (5) among all wide receivers. He also led all wide receivers in yards after catch (362).
Godwin has yet to see the field this offseason and reportedly had a second surgery (that was expected) to clean up his ankle in the spring. There have been zero indications of when he will return to football activities, but we have seen ankle injuries of this nature linger into the next season before.
The Buccaneers have zero urgency to get Godwin back on the field after drafting Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Egbuka is more than capable of providing strong play alongside Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan until Godwin is fully ready to play.
If/when Godwin returns to the lineup, he will likely be in a reduced role to work back up to full speed, especially if the Buccaneers are in playoff contention. That will push him outside of the top 36 receivers in fantasy in 2025.
Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels finishes as the QB1 overall in fantasy.
Jayden Daniels took fantasy by storm as a rookie, finishing as the QB5 in fantasy points per game (21.5). Daniels had seven top-five scoring weeks and two weeks where he finished as the QB1 overall. He completed 69.0 percent of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He also added 148 carries for 891 yards and six touchdowns.
The scary thing is, there is room for growth.
Daniels was middle of the pack in passing attempts (480, 15th), deep ball attempts (50, 15th), and red zone attempts (68, 14th). He also consistently struggled on both his deep passes (30.0 percent, 29th) and pressured completion percentage (54.1 percent). Daniels ranked fifth in clean pocket completion percentage (72.2 percent). Washington worked hard to give him answers to those problems next season.
The Commanders invested heavily in their offensive line, trading for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and drafting Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round of the draft. Both of those moves are significant upgrades. Additionally, the team traded for wide receiver Deebo Samuel to provide another weapon in the passing attack.
Daniels will always possess a higher floor and ceiling due to his rushing ability, so Washington loaded up at positions to help improve his ability to attack defenses down the field. That will unlock another level to his game, allowing him to push for a QB1 overall finish in his second professional season.
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