Fantasy Football

Mixon is a true bellcow back in a league that has few. He had no scores and three targets per game through three weeks. Giovani Bernard was seeing more opportunities in the passing game and it looked like Mixon would be relegated to a grinder role once again. In the following three weeks, Mixon has scored four times and been targeted 17 times. He’s top-10 in running back targets over that span.

T.Y. Hilton’s inefficiency is brutal and it’s only compounded by his lack volume. Both his Target Share and Air Yards Share rank outside the top-30 receivers. He was out-targeted by Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal last week. Hilton is on bye this week, so it might be worth waiting to sell low because his market will get a slight bump once he’s back in action. Look to move him for anyone with a pulse including Travis Fulgham, Preston Williams, and Randall Cobb.

The opportunity has always been there for Logan Thomas. The former quarterback has recorded a 92.5-percent (No. 4 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share, a 17.1-percent (No. 11) Target Share on a team averaging 40.3 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game, a 95.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation mark, and a 17.3-percent (No. 68) Target Rate. Adding Thomas is a bet on Kyle Allen to consistently target him with catchable passes. If you need a tight end, you can do worse than Thomas against the Cowboys.

Through three games, Trey Burton has totaled 16 (No. 30) targets on 58 (No. 43) Routes Run, good for a 27.6-percent (No. 25) Target Rate. While the Colts average 34.7 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game, the team ranks No. 16 in tight end targets. That isn’t an elite allocation of targets to the position, but it’s enough to keep Burton fantasy relevant if his usage remains comparable after his bye.

Well, it took a few weeks, but D’Andre Swift arrived in a big way in Week 6. In the tilt against the Jaguars, Swift saw the field on 37.1-percent of the snaps, touching the ball a total of 17 times. He turned this into 123 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. With four targets, he was once again the RB target leader for the Lions. While Adrian Peterson may cap the rookie’s ceiling in the short-term, Swift looks the part of a cornerstone piece of dynasty teams for years to come.

The days of Zach Ertz being a locked-in set-it-and-forget-it TE1 have abruptly come to an end. To make matters worse, he’s now sidelined with a high-ankle sprain. Ertz is without a contract extension, and despite a lack of competition in the passing game, his performance on the season has underwhelmed. For fantasy purposes, an output of 8.0 (No. 25 among qualified tight ends) Fantasy Points per Game is not what managers expected from a player ranked on the edge of the elite TE tier.

Boston Scott is walking into at least one week of pseudo-starter responsibilities. Scott is the next man up, and a short week against the New York Giants ensures that Miles Sanders will sit and that scoring opportunity will be abundant. Doug Pederson has a history of using a committee when no true workhorse is available to carry the load. Still, one week RB2 upside makes Scott a worthy Flex play for those looking to fill bye weeks.

J.D. McKissic has forced himself onto the fantasy radar with at least six receptions in each game since Dwayne Haskins was relinquished to the bench. Kyle Allen is a checkdown machine that helped fuel Christian McCaffrey’s historic 2019 run. McKissic is AFC James White with PPR flex value completely supported by targets. He’s a high-floor PPR Flex option perfect for bye week fill-ins.

The Falcons responded in a big way after axing their head coach and general manager this week. Both moves were long overdue for a team stuck in a years-long Super Bowl hangover. In interim HC Raheem Morris’ first day in charge, Atlanta leaned on what’s been the strength of the team for years: Matt Ryan and Julio Jones soul-reaving opposing defenses. Only this time, they even have top-12 talent Calvin Ridley on the other side.

The Colts are top 10 in rushing plays per game and Jonathan Taylor had seen 19 (No. 9 among qualified running backs) Red Zone Touches heading into this game, converting three of them for scores. We’ve got to keep betting on this athletic phenom and hope the Colts eventually realize they’ve got a blue chip asset on their hands and use him accordingly.

The Cowboys average 49.4 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays Per Game with a leaky defense. In fact, they’ve trailed in every game except their most recent entering the fourth quarter. That’s good (or not so good) for a -7.91 (No. 29) Game Script mark, indicating they have to pass and score to keep up. Dak Prescott’s Supporting Cast Efficiency – now supporting Andy Dalton – is a sturdy +5.6 (No. 16), while he graded out with a 90.0 (No. 6) Protection Rate.

Although the Panthers average 37.2 (No. 18) Team Pass Plays Per Game, Teddy Bridgewater has attempted 178 (No. 11) passes. With 1,461 (No. 6) passing yards, Bridgewater may be due for slight positive touchdown regression. He’s thrown only six (No. 22) touchdown passes thus far. The Panthers offense sit No. 9 in DVOA, including No. 10 in pass DVOA, highlighting Bridgewater’s touchdown misfortune.

Henry Ruggs’ explosive game last week has likely closed any buy-low window, but there may still be a chance to acquire him at value. His 12.0-percent Target Share ranks No. 86 among qualified wide receivers and he’s drawn only 11 (No. 99) targets, but he averages 2.80 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Target and 3.00 (No. 2) yards of Target Separation. With his blazing speed, big gains tend to happen when the ball is thrown his way. An uptick in targets can result in a real explosion for the Las Vegas Raider.

Through five games, Kenyan Drake has a 63.2-percent (No. 16) Snap Share. He has 85 (No. 5) carries and 16 (No. 14) Red Zone Touches. All this volume has resulted in a frustrating 10.3 (No. 35) Fantasy Points per Game; a far cry from his expected RB1 outcome. As a result, Arizona’s lead rusher has fallen to RB23 on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings, dropping over 17 Lifetime Value points. His stock is trending down and he is a risky buy-low option. He is more of a sell.

Chase Claypool is the hot ticket pickup for Week 6 after a four touchdown performance against the Eagles. His efficiency will obviously come down to Earth, but his profile supports his breakout being for real. The Steelers average 37.2 (No. 16) Team Pass Plays per Game, so there is plenty of opportunity for Claypool. His eruption was seemingly linked to Diontae Johnson being injured. However, the overall productivity of this offense can lead him to weekly fantasy success.

Travis Fulgham looks like 2020’s Phillip Lindsay; the undrafted guy nobody ever heard of who may finish top 24 at his position. Carson Wentz can sill activate high-end fantasy receivers and as of Week 5, his best weapon is Fulgham. Add him in all formats as the ultimate boom/bust acquisition of 2020. His range of outcomes include returning to irrelevancy or ascending to moderate stardom and at least Flex value.

Whenever he’s on the field, Chase Claypool makes plays. This should surprise no one because he is among the best athletes at his position. His Best Comparable Players include Mike Evans and Brandon Marshall. Players with his size and speed are unicorns. There are five receivers in the PlayerProfiler database who stand at least 6-3-, weigh at least 225-pounds, and run a 4.42 Forty-Yard Dash: D.K. Metcalf, Calvin Johnson, Terrelle Pryor, Demaryius Thomas, and Claypool.

The JuJu Smith-Schuster dream is dead. He managed just five targets and 28 yards after Diontae Johnson went down early against the Eagles. He hasn’t led Pittsburgh in targets in any game this season. His Air Yards Share and Target Share numbers will be outside the top-40 and top-90 after Week 5. He’s been buoyed by a 12.5-percent Touchdown Rate. While other players in Pittsburgh steal scores, JuJu will be exposed as a low-volume, no-upside weekly play.

Deshaun Watson recorded his first win of the season, pouring 359 yards and three scores on the Jaguars. The Texans lock horns with the divisional rival Titans next week. An opponent Watson has averaged 262 passing yards and 2.5 touchdowns against over their last four matchups. He will be a popular DFS play in both cash and tournaments, and I’m not the one to talk you out of him.

Chase Claypool destroyed the Eagles defensive backs all day long, with Darius Slay occupying a combination of JuJu Smith-Schuster and an injured Diontae Johnson. The Notre Dame WR/TE hybrid touched the ball ten times, recording 111 yards to go along with his four scores. He’s a truly unique aspect of the Steelers offense that appeared back to full force on Sunday on the way to a 4-0 start.