Fantasy Football

This is a red alert. Russell Wilson threw the ball 35 times on Sunday. That only happened six times last season, and this was in a game where the Seahawks were never behind. Wilson has historically been a top 5-efficient QB by basically any metric. Consistent volume has been the only missing piece. He carries as high a ceiling as any QB in football when he’s unleashed. While he is off the main DFS slate next week against the Patriots, he’s a top-5 QB in any format.

With Marlon Mack done for the season, both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines now hold starter value. We know about Philip Rivers’ propensity toward targeting running backs, and both of these backs are plus receivers with the requisite explosion and shimmy to add yards after the catch. Taylor will be a DFS smash next week against a Vikings team that ceded more than 150 yards on the ground to the Packers.

James Robinson’s 48.7-percent College Dominator Rating, a 97th-percentile mark, is the best among all incoming rookie running backs. His 107.2 Athleticism Score is the best in this rookie class, and No. 16 among all running backs in the entire database. That fact that he stuck around the team for this long in an offseason where all UDFAs faced a steeper-than-usual uphill climb to make a roster should’ve been the warning flare in the sky for fantasy gamers. The time to acquire him in all formats is running out. Be on the right side of history.

Marvin Hall’s seven (No. 150) receptions for 261 (No. 100) receiving yards helped give him astronomical marks in many of PlayerProfiler’s efficiency metrics, and he did most of that damage with Matthew Stafford healthy. In fact, eight of his 39 career targets have gone for 30-plus yards. Kenny Golladay led all wide receivers with 37 Deep Targets last year, so it would make sense for Hall to slide into that role over fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus. Especially given his familiarity with the offense and the shortened offseason program. 

The Miles Sanders profile looks like that of a bell-cow running back. He is dealing with a hamstring injury but will be announced as active for Week 1. That will return his price to the mid-first-round, back where he was late in the summer. Buy him then, buy him now, buy him high, just get Sanders before he turns from a prospective top-five fantasy back to the real deal.

Mike Williams is questionable for Week 1 with a shoulder injury and reports at the end of camp indicated that the Chargers were preparing to be without him for most of September. Now he’s set to be a game-time decision for Week 1 and will almost certainly not be completely healthy if he does suit up. This is on top of him already entering a worse situation that played in last year, now having Tyrod Taylor as his quarterback.

D’Andre Swift has the opportunity to outscore both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor in year one. Kerryon Johnson provides little competition and Swift has an elite pedigree. Swift was taken three slots behind CEH and six slots in front of Taylor in the NFL Draft. Yet he is going far later in seasonal leagues. Look for Swift to beat out Johnson and newly-signed Adrian Peterson in the first two weeks to gain a belcow role while Taylor is still sitting behind Marlon Mack.

Chris Herndon’s impressive 2018 season ranks as one of the top rookie tight end seasons of the past several years. He deserves a mulligan for his 2019 season due to his injury and suspension. He enters 2020 as the clear No. 1 tight end in a Jets offense with 186 (No. 4) Vacated Targets and a mono-free QB. Herndon is set to smash in 2020 as Sam Darnold’s favorite target with the upside to be a Top 5 tight end and fantasy league-winner, especially in tight end premium leagues.

The quarterback position, while important, doesn’t require as much depth. Two to three will put most teams in a solid spot. If aiming for a top-tier quarterback, the idea is to then wait until late in the draft to grab another. Owning both Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson is counter-intuitive, and a waste. If the strategy is to wait on a quarterback, then drafting a total of three is ideal. Whichever approach is taken, no more than three is needed; save those spots for the wide receivers and running backs.

Under this format, the wide receiver position is as important as it gets. Due to the wider range of weekly outcomes for receivers, depth is crucial to having success. Each team should leave a draft with no less than eight to have a chance at winning. The more options available, the greater the chances of success. One thing to keep in mind, is that “big play” receivers do not provide an edge. The deep threat receiver is often viewed in that “big play” lens, but they are just as volatile as others.

Carson Wentz attempted 69 (No. 10 among qualified quarterbacks) Deep Balls in 2019 and had a 34.8-percent (No. 19) completion percentage on those throws. This plays to DeSean Jackson’s strength as it relates to fantasy football. Even if he is only a boom-bust flex in 2020, dependent on one big play, he’s running deep routes for one of the most frequent deep-ball passers in the league with little target competition.

DeSean Jackson’s fantasy football ADP can pay off with just the monster weeks he potentially has while Alshon Jeffery is out. That can only be two games. If so, depending on roster construction, Jackson is the ultimate sell-high to start the season, or we wait and see. In a worst-case scenario, Jeffery reverts back to 2019 form and Jackson returns back to the boom-bust flex you initially drafted. Jackson, in this scenario, will still have his weeks. Just not as consistently. That’s fine at his ADP.

Part of the reason that Zack Moss has more fantasy football upside than advertised is due to his proficiency in the passing game. The 2019 PAC-12 Offensive Player of the Year captured a 9.0-percent (68th-percentile among qualified running backs) Target Share in his senior season, catching 28 passes on 29 targets. Devin Singletary, on the other hand, finished with a 69.0-percent (No. 38) Catch Rate in his rookie season in the NFL.

In addition to the probability that Zack Moss gets most of the receptions, there’s also the fact that Devin Singletary may have a short leash with fumbling issues. He finished with the highest fumble rate at the running back position in the 2019 season, and reports of continued fumbling issues at Bills training camp indicate that the problem may persist in 2020. Moss already appears to have a significant role heading into the season. There’s a strong chance he assumes lead back duties early in 2020.

D.J. Chark entered the league profiling as a field-stretching wide receiver. This was the role he played in college, averaging 21.9 (97th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) yards per reception. At 6-3 and 199-pounds, Chark ran a 4.34 (98th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. This equates to an elite 115.3 (96th-percentile) Speed Score. Further, his 132.5 (93rd-percentile) Burst Score adds additional evidence that he is an elite-level athlete: a Tyreek Hill-type, in a typical X-receiver body.

In the 14 games Gardner Minshew started last season, D.J. Chark averaged 14.2 Fantasy Points per Game. This helped placed him among the top 24 wide receivers in FPPG by season’s end. His success with Minshew was largely predicated by the rookie quarterback’s uncanny ability to connect on deep passes, evidenced by a 45.1-percent (No. 5) Deep Ball Completion Percentage. Assuming he is able to maintain this level of deep ball efficiency, Chark is an unquestioned WR2 with week-winning ability.

Where Leonard Fournette has the advantage over Ronald Jones is in the passing game. While playing for LSU, Fournette averaged an 11.9-percent (85th-percentile among qualified running backs) Target Share. He’s been just as good in the NFL. In 2019, he posted 522 (No. 5) receiving yards on 76 (No. 5) receptions. Jones hasn’t proven he’s capable. His College Target Share falls in the 18th-percentile, while his usage in the NFL to this point speaks volumes.

The Jacksonville backfield might look entirely different in 2021, but this year’s group can certainly provide fantasy value. While there are reasons to like both Devine Ozigbo and Ryquell Armstead, James Robinson is the back to own here. With an FFPC ADP of 302.25, he is as cheap as they come. Not to mention, Jaguars coach Doug Marrone praised Robinson’s camp and admitted it aided in the decision to cut Leonard Fournette. Wheels up.

All things considered, the argument for Jared Goff in 2020 revolves around trusting Sean McVay to put him in positions to win, which includes running more 12 personnel. The argument against Goff is twofold. The spiked 12 personnel usage was schedule-dependent. In addition, there is a chance the league adjusts to the team’s 12 personnel usage come Week 1. Though shipping Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley out of town suggests the former.

The Rams have 126 (No. 13) Vacated Targets entering 2020. Beyond Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee is the next logical in-house option to assume a bump in targets for. That is, assuming the team’s 2019 personnel usage rates remain comparable in 2020. The third option in the Rams offense will be viable in fantasy and needs to be for Jared Goff’s sake. The last five weeks of 2019 suggest the third option is Higbee.