Fantasy Football

Jalen Hurts earned his first start in Week 14 and looked like an instant QB1. He is in the upper echelon of all-time athleticism among quarterbacks. In his first start, he rushed 18 times for 106 yards. His rush attempts were the fifth-most for a quarterback since 2000 and his yardage total is top-15 in a single game. He’s the ultimate Konami Code passer and his two matchups to close out the fantasy season are supreme.

Devin Duvernay posted an above-average 32.5-percent (59th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating to go along with his 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard Dash time and 121.9 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score. For teams dealing with injuries in the fantasy semifinals, Duvernay is among the best pickups of the week and is worth a desperation start.

Mark Ingram has totaled six carries over the past two weeks, including zero last week. Meanwhile, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have split the backfield carries 24-14 in that span. That’s a 36.8-percent carry share for Edwards on a Ravens team averaging 32.6 (No. 2) Team Run Plays Per Game. We’d love to see his 33.3-percent (No. 64 among qualified running backs) Snap Share expand, but it’s clear he’s likely toting the rock when he’s on the field.

Coming off his best game to date as a pro, Drew Lock rolls into a juicy matchup against Buffalo. As good as the Bills defense has been recently, they’ve allowed five passing touchdowns in their past two outings combined to Nick Mullens and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively. The game’s implied 50-point total sit at the sixth-highest of the week. For his best part, Lock has managed a 6:2 TD:INT ratio in his past two outings, establishing strong synergy with Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler along the way.

Jordan Wilkins has seen just two carries over the last two weeks, leaving Nyheim Hines as Jonathan Taylor’s main competition. But a two-man backfield is much more palatable, and with Taylor consistently being the best of the group, his touches should continue to rise. He draws the single best running back matchup next week against the Houston Texans, a team Indy consistently manhandles. It was against the Texans in Week 13 where Taylor broke out, totaling 130 total yards and a score.

The Saints had previously not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 55 games. Both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders got there on the ground Sunday. Hurts’ read-option abilities helped spring Sanders loose for chunk runs throughout the game, and he finished with 115 yards and two scores on 14 carries. His 82-yard rushing score felt like the first explosive play for the Eagles all season, and his Konami ability makes him a viable QB2 play in the fantasy playoffs.

When going against top cornerbacks in the PlayerProfiler cornerback rankings, Mike Williams cannot be started. On the other side, when he goes against cornerbacks towards the bottom of the rankings, he has excellent games. A look at A.J. Terrell’s profile page shows that he has been a bad cornerback this season. It’s a guarantee that Williams and Justin Herbert connect on multiple 20-plus yard passes in this game.

Antonio Brown’s 18.6-percent (No. 4 among qualified wide receivers) Hog Rate on a team that averages 40.9 (No. 8) Team Pass Plays Per Game is a combination for fantasy points waiting for the right opposing defense to exploit. Kris Boyd’s 13.1 Yards Per Reception Allowed, when paired with his Catch Rate Allowed, is exactly what Brown needs to achieve his first breakout performance of the 2020 season.

Corey Davis has had a lot to prove this season after the Tennessee Titans declined his fifth-year option. He’s done just that. Other than a catchless Week 9 performance versus the Bears, Davis has recorded double-digit fantasy points in every game played. He’s averaging 15.7 Fantasy Points per Game, which currently ranks No. 16 among qualified wide receivers. The 2017 fifth overall pick gained 17.85 Lifetime Value points to move from WR48 to WR38 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings.

Rookie running backs have been breaking out on a weekly basis lately, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s dynasty stock has been sliding. Edwards-Helaire has produced at RB12 or better in only four games this season, averaging 13.9 (No. 18) Fantasy Points per Game. Being the first RB off the draft board last spring (in reality and often in fantasy), expectations were high. Dynasty managers have to be disappointed in what has largely been RB2 production.

With a higher Average Target Distance mark than his teammates, Michael Gallup is often deployed as the deep threat in the Dallas offense, logging 198 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards through 12 weeks. That deep threat role is a valuable one, but it’s not being capitalized on with sub-par QB play post-Prescott. Gallup’s 4.1 (No. 105) Target Quality Rating is far below Amari Cooper’s 5.4 (No. 60) and CeeDee Lamb’s 5.6 (No. 53) marks, more evidence that he’s doing a lot with a little.

It’s never good for a top-3 dynasty RB to lose a year due to an ACL tear. The silver lining is that Saquon Barkley’s injury happened in Week 2, giving him more than enough time to make a full recovery ahead of the 2021 season. Even better for our purposes, he and his explosive plays have been out of the public perception for a very long time. This presents a choice buying opportunity in fantasy football dynasty leagues.

Ronald Darby’s combination of 13 (No. 2 among qualified cornerbacks) Pass Break-Ups, one (No. 3) TDs Allowed, and 55.6-percent (No. 11) Catch Rate Allowed has contributed to his +43.4 (No. 7) Coverage Rating this season. His 1.50 (No. 12) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target spells trouble for Deebo Samuel this week, with Darby’s 87.3 (No. 24) Passer Rating Allowed paired up with Samuel’s 90.2 (No. 69) QB Rating When Targeted.

On top of predicted game flow not being in his favor, Amari Cooper’s 25.6-percent (No. 48) Air Yards Share is less than ideal for a player on a team expected to control the game on the ground. Cincinnati’s William Jackson is a tough matchup for the opposing team’s No. 1 options. His 54.3-percent (No. 8) Catch Rate Allowed is elite and it, along with his 7 (No. 21) Pass Break-Ups, has contributed to his +36.9 (No. 10) Coverage Rating.

Cole Kmet wasn’t a mind-bending prospect that was expected to take the league by storm as a rookie and he certainly didn’t. Up until Week 10, he hadn’t logged a game with more than two targets. However, since Week 10, Kmet has stolen the starting tight end job from Jimmy Graham. There’s been a changing of the guard for a team averaging 42.7 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays per Game, and that may translate to Kmet emerging as a viable streaming option in the fantasy playoffs.

It was fun while it lasted with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but he’s been all but benched for Allen Lazard. Since Lazard returned in Week 11, Valdes-Scantling’s Routes Run and Snap Share have both fallen in consecutive weeks. He bottomed out at two targets and zero catches last week. MVS already had a comically low Target Rate, seeing a target on 15.4-percent of his routes run this season. That mark is No. 158 among qualified wide receivers.

While the 37.2 (No. 18) Team Pass Plays Per Game is good volume, Kyler Murray has failed to hit 6.5 Yards per Attempt in each of his last three. In two of these games, he threw for less than 175 yards. In a win or go home fantasy playoff matchup, we suggest making other plans at quarterback – or temper expectations with Murray, which can work depending on roster construction. The reign as fantasy’s QB1 is over.

In three games with Taysom Hill at quarterback, Alvin Kamara has commanded six targets – or two per game. He has managed two touchdowns in that span, but prior to last week, he posted back-to-back weekly finishes outside the top-24. Without the receptions, Kamara is more of a low-end RB2 than fantasy football’s RB1. He’s created a league-leading 220.8 Weighted Opportunities thus far, but we aren’t sure how many more he’ll create moving forward.

Ty Johnson is the priority add going into Wild Card week given his expected workhorse role and soft matchup against Seattle. Frank Gore will likely miss Week 14 due to a concussion, paving the way for another 20-plus touch week for Johnson. There is concern that Seattle rebounds this week and blows out the Jets, but regardless of Game Script, Johnson will get plenty of touches due to Adam Gase’s archaic play calling.

Keke Coutee emerged for a monster performance with 8 catches and 141 yards on 9 targets against the Colts. His increased usage will continue given that he is the secondary option in a high-octane passing game for a Texans offense that continues to project for negative Game Script. A Week 14 matchup against Chicago limits Coutee’s touchdown upside, but he still belongs in the Flex spot if you are thin on options.