Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 6: Joe Mixon, Bellcow Buy

by Kyle Dvorchak · Trades Buy/Sell

No one was selling Ezekiel Elliott because of one quiet week. There won’t be a single offer for Anthony Firkser after you put him on the block. Buying low and selling high rarely works. Even though you might be the only player in your league using PlayerProfiler, your opponents aren’t idiots. Grow up, take some risks, and buy high or sell low.

Buy High

Keelean Cole, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Keelan Cole also makes for a good free agent add because that’s where he can be found in most leagues. If someone has already picked him up, they’re sure to be looking for a selling opportunity. Cole will always be up and down on a weekly basis as long as he’s competing with D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault. That’s okay. The last Flex spot on any given roster dealing with injuries and bye weeks won’t be a locked-in starter. Cole will get the job done. He’s been on the field for over 75-percent of the Jaguars offensive snaps. He’s also seen at least five targets in every game this season.

Keelan Cole Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Cole’s recent resurgence should not be surprising. He was an explosive small-school prospect coming out of Kentucky Wesleyan. There are 11 players with a College Dominator Rating above 60.0-percent. Only Demaryius Thomas has a higher College YPR than Cole in that cohort. Cole also posted a mini breakout in his first NFL season, recording 748 receiving yards in 2017 as a rookie. He can easily outproduce the two Sell Lows of this week through the rest of the season.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon is performing like an elite fantasy back after starting the year slow in terms of his receiving and touchdown production. He had no scores and three targets per game through three weeks. Giovani Bernard was seeing more opportunities in the passing game and it looked like Mixon would be relegated to a grinder role once again. In the following three weeks, Mixon has scored four times and been targeted 17 times. He’s top-10 in running back targets over that span. All of that is despite missing a few drives with an injury last week.

Mixon is a true bellcow back in a league that has few. Christian McCaffrey owners may look to sell low on him for Mixon with the timetable on McCaffrey’s return continuing to get moved back. Fantasy players may bail on Ezekiel Elliott for Mixon and something else now that Elliott is just a recognizable name on a bad offense.

Sell Low

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

T.Y. Hilton has been terrible and anyone reading this probably knows that. It’s important to put it in numbers how terrible he’s been. He has a -31.9 (No. 87 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and a -39.5-percent (No. 98) Target Premium with +7.8 (No. 85) Expected Points Added.

The one potential saving grace that can be lobbed in favor of Hilton is that his targets have been inaccurate. Philip Rivers is probably washed, but he has gotten the ball to Hilton enough that he can’t be used as a reason to excuse Hilton’s failures. Hilton has a 7.5 Target Accuracy mark, No. 32 among qualified receivers. His Target Quality Rating, which factors in the quality of each target with the depth, is the No. 50 ranking. Those marks are pedestrian and a bit worse, but they do not explain Hilton’s poor play. He has one week as a WR4 or better.

Check out T.Y. Hilton on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

The inefficiency is brutal and it’s only compounded by his lack volume. Both his Target Share and Air Yards Share rank outside the top-30 receivers. He was out-targeted by Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal last week. Hilton is on bye this week, so it might be worth waiting to sell low because his market will get a slight bump once he’s back in action. Look to move him for anyone with a pulse including Travis Fulgham, Preston Williams, and Randall Cobb.

Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns

Unlike T.Y. Hilton, Jarvis Landry doesn’t appear to be a pile of dust in a trench coat. His 9.7 Yards per Target and 2.09 Yards per Route Run are both top-30. He’s probably still a serviceable slot receiver. The problem with Landry is his middling market share numbers on a team that refuses to pass, evidenced by a 19.5-percent (No. 35) Target Share and a 22.3-percent (No. 54) Air Yards Share.

Landry is playing a secondary role to Odell Beckham on a team that is running 32.2 (No. 30) Team Pass Plays per Game. Cleveland ranks No. 21 in seconds per play and No. 31 in pass percentage. Landry plays a minor role in an offense that is designed to run the football. He falls into a slightly higher tier than Hilton because he has three WR3 games, but still no top-20 outings.