Fantasy Football

James Robinson’s signing with the Jaguars as an undrafted free agent in the COVID year should never have gone unnoticed, especially given the rumor and innuendo that had been surrounding Leonard Fournette leading up to his eventual release. Regardless of how the rest of his career turns out, rising from the ashes of the undrafted to make a fantasy impact when given the chance will at least land him in the RotoUnderworld Fantasy Football Hall of Fame.

Though Ian Thomas has elite athleticism and upper-percentile weight-adjusted agility, two of the most predictive factors when looking for tight end breakouts, it’s always dangerous to overpay for potential relative to prior production or lack thereof. Despite the fact that his skill-set seemed to mesh well with that of incoming quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, his ADP remained manageable all summer, and I was convinced that this was the ultimate 2020 fantasy football value play.

On August 20, 2019, Warren Sharp dropped an article telling the world they were wrong about Lamar Jackson, who proceeded to score 415.7 fantasy points, the second-most ever scored by a quarterback. Not bad for an undersized running back with accuracy issues. Sharp warned everyone in 2019. I’m here to warn everyone in 2021. Don’t make the same mistake with Jalen Hurts that people did with Jackson in 2019!

With a full offseason of first-team reps, passing accuracy that can only go up, and a receiving core that will be better by default, Hurts’ floor is a top-12 QB in 2021 like we saw last year, but the sky is the ceiling. I called Dak Prescott leading quarterbacks in fantasy points per game in 2020. I’m here to say that in 2021, it will be Hurts as THE QB1 in fantasy football in 2021.

At this point in his career, Leonard Fournette will likely share backfield opportunities. With 132 (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities and averages of 4.5 (No. 48) Yards Per Touch, and 0.98 (No. 46) Yards Created Per Touch, it indicates he isn’t overly explosive and productive with shared touches. The +5.9 (No. 24) Production Premium gives us a slight glimmer of hope, but he remains a dynasty sell-high after riding the “Playoff Lenny” hype.

After returning from a concussion in Week 12, David Montgomery averaged over 23 touches and 137 total yards per game with eight total touchdowns and 25.7 Fantasy Points per Game. From Weeks 12-17, he finished inside the top-8 each week among fantasy running backs. That’s the perfect definition for dynasty sell-high candidates – finished the season as an RB1, but realistically more of a mid or back-end RB2.

The looming departures of Sammy Watkins and Demarcus Robinson make Mecole Hardman a salary cap beneficiary in a pivotal make-or-break third season. Yes, he had an 8.1-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Drop Rate. Does it matter? No. Watkins and Robinson dropped a lower percentage of their targets and Patrick Mahomes continued to go back to Hardman, who drew a 13.4-percent (No. 54) Hog Rate while Watkins (10.8-percent) and Robinson (8.8-percent) finished outside the top-80.

With the Eagles $51 million over the cap, it’s time for them to move on from the veteran receiver duo of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery. Jalen Reagor’s 13.4 (No. 20) Average Target Distance mark and 15 (No. 40) Deep Targets revealed that he will be utilized in high-efficiency fantasy point scoring areas. Improved quarterback play would go a long way towards helping him achieve a breakout season.

In two postseason contests, Cam Akers averaged an impressive 22.1 Fantasy Points per Game. He caught all three of his targets for an explosive 51 receiving yards and finished with two rushing touchdowns. But the main takeaway to file in our minds heading into the offseason is that he had become the workhorse in the backfield by season’s end. Across the final four regular season games and both playoff matchups, Akers totaled 132 carries, 561 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns.

Depending on where Leonard Fournette lands, keep in mind that he’ll turn 26 years old heading into the 2021 season. Although he finished 2020 with a +5.9 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Production Premium, he only totaled 130 (No. 47) Yards Created and a 15.8-percent (No. 53) Juke Rate. We’re riding high on the Playoff Lenny postseason hype, but he’s more of a sell high in dynasty leagues.

Donald Parham isn’t on everyone’s radar. Though his Snap Share increased late in the season, he never once eclipsed four targets in 2020. With Hunter Henry likely out of the picture, L.A. may opt to draft a tight end or add one in free agency. Even so, Parham has a legit shot at the starter spot in a best-case scenario and would make for good depth in the worst case. Either way, the man needs to be rostered in dynasty leagues.

Despite being the fourth or fifth receiving option on a team that averaged 32.9 (No. 29) Pass Plays per Game, Harrison Bryant had some impressive metrics. He averaged 8.7 (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) yards of Average Target Distance and drew five (No. 20) five Deep Targets. Furthermore, he posted a, 88.9-percent (No. 11) True Catch Rate. He’s sure to have a breakout sophomore campaign if given the snaps to operate.

Tyler Boyd being available as my first WR in the seventh round validated my decision to go ZeroWR. Diontae Johnson also proved vital for the first few weeks before I became trigger-happy and swapped him for Chase Claypool after the rookie’s 40-burger in Week 5. Miles Sanders going into one of my IR slots to start the year allowed me to pick up Robby Anderson to tie the WR core together for the year, though leaving his 20-plus points on the bench almost cost me a Week 1 victory.

My 11th-round selection of Cam Newton ensured that I wouldn’t be locked into starting him all season and could play waivers as needed, even in a 14-team league since not many teams rostered backups with the shallow benches. The QB Frankenstein of players I started at least once: Newton, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Taysom Hill and Jalen Hurts. The Hurts pickup proved particularly vital, as he single-handedly lifted me to victory in the semifinals.

For those who missed his productive moments during the 2020 season, Marquez Callaway should not be wasting away on waivers. He played well during Michael Thomas’ absence, including an eight-catch, 75-yard performance in Week 7 against Carolina. Michael Thomas has been making enemies in his own locker room; not even his future in New Orleans is secure. When 2021 plays out, it’s possible Callaway is a very important piece to this Saints offense.

Entering his third season in the NFL, and under coach Frank Reich, Ashton Dulin can take advantage of the looming vacancies at the wide receiver position in Indianapolis. Between his workout metrics, highlighted by a stellar 60.9-percent (99th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating and near-perfect 18.3 (99th-percentile) Breakout Age, it’s easy to see how his talent can carry him to relevancy in the near future.

With Mark Ingram out and Gus Edwards a restricted free agent, there’s a solid chance Justice Hill ends up the No. 2 in Baltimore behind starter J.K. Dobbins in 2021. With an elite 4.40 (97th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard Dash and 133.0 (95th-percentile) Burst Score, Hill has the tools to be a great piece to the offense, even as the No. 2 back.

Though he wasn’t invited to the Combine and his player profile lacks workout metrics, Xavier Jones’ college production is noticeable. His 28.6-percent (63rd-percentile) College Dominator Rating is solid, while his 9.6-percent (71st-percentile) College Target Share is excellent. With Malcolm Brown a free agent, the Rams will rely on Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers to lead the backfield. Don’t count out Jones making some noise in 2021 as well.

A torn Achilles tendon and Jonathan Taylor’s emergence have stifled Marlon Mack’s fantasy future. Mack’s fantasy potential has become an afterthought with Taylor ascending to excellence. There is plenty of unknown surrounding a player set to hit free agency who will return from a serious lower-body injury, but he checks the boxes a dynasty asset should have.

Mack is still only about to enter his age-25 season. Being injured in Week 1, he will have a calendar year to recover and get back to his 4.50 (77th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-yard Dash form. His 103.9 (75th-percentile) Speed Score and 122.9 (72nd-percentile) Burst Score were just indicators for his big play ability. Taking a chance on running backs coming off lower-body injuries is risky, but his talent makes it worth the risk in dynasty.