Fantasy Football

A top Pac-12 WR at USC, Amon-Ra St. Brown has the tools to become a starting receiver and brings his physicality to an appreciative Dan Campbell in Detroit. Among a WR corps with Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams at the helm and lacking an alpha, he can easily see a large Target Share immediately. He fits in as a contested catch receiver, especially with Jared Goff, who had 34 (No. 9 among qualified quarterbacks) Danger Plays and 22 (No. 12) Interceptable with the Rams last season.

At North Carolina, Dyami Brown played with Dazz Newsome and Michael Carter, two players who had shallower target depth averages with Brown operating as the deeper receiver. Now with Terry McLaurin (12.9 yards per reception in 2020, No. 47) and Curtis Samuel (11.0 yards per reception, No. 82) drawing targets and attention underneath, Brown will be able to stretch the field for Washington as well.

Avoid narratives that do not align with the data. In 2020, Aaron Jones’s opportunity was similar to what he saw in 2019, other than the total touchdowns. The goal of fantasy football is to score fantasy points. Players need opportunity to score fantasy points. Raw skills alone will not get the job done. When a running back is in their prime, coming off of an incredibly productive season with 217.9 (No. 9 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities, I am interested in having them on my roster.

I like big receivers and I cannot lie: At 6-3 and 212 pounds, I figured Bryan Edwards would be that outside alpha receiver that would be productive in recording first downs, having screens thrown to him, and being a red zone threat with his size. Given his young Breakout Age, and doing in the SEC in college, I thought he would be able to step in as a rookie and have a nice season.

Age-adjusted production matters, and Travis Etienne has been the man since he was 19 years old. His production profile is nothing short of prolific. He followed his impressive freshman breakout season with two straight years of at least 1,600 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. Playing with Trevor Lawrence capped his College Dominator Rating at 25.7-percent (54th-percentile among qualified running backs), but he was efficient with his lighter workload.

While not as talented of a receiver as Travis Etienne, Najee Harris did prove he is also capable of producing in the passing game at the NFL level with his 43-reception, 425-receiving yard, and 13.4-percent (90th-percentile) College Target Share senior season. With a 5.8 (68th-percentile) College YPC average, Harris was less efficient than Etienne, but his 30.9-percent (70th-percentile) College Dominator Rating (a much more predictive metric for running backs) checks in significantly higher.

Only 11 of the top 21 picks in this SuperFlex startup draft were quarterbacks, including two rookies in Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields were available here in round two, while D’Andre Swift and A.J. Brown were also on the board. Due to this league’s settings requiring only one running back to start, that position should be discounted. Hurts’ rushing ability gives him league-winning upside, so I chose him here to lock down the QB position.

Michael Thomas in the fifth round feels wrong. If Jameis Winston is under center, he will have the kind of league-winning upside that he showed in 2019. With Taysom Hill at quarterback, his ceiling is a little bit lower, but he is still a top receiver in the league. The only real mark against him in dynasty is his age, but he is younger than Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, and only a year older than Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans.

Though he joins a crowded backfield, Trey Sermon’s one-cut and go running style fits the San Francisco offense well. He played in a similar outside zone scheme in college, and will have an opportunity to carve out a role as the team’s grinder back, with upside to be the high-volume, early-down and short-yardage guy.

The Jets were a prime landing spot for a rookie running back and they chose to go with Michael Carter in the fourth round. The 5-8, 201-pounder joins a backfield without any defined roles. Carter, a one-cut and go type back, is an excellent fit in the Kyle Shanahan-style offense that Mike LaFleur will be operating.

Trevor Lawrence and Gardner Minshew should never be compared. Minshew will forever be a legend, but there’s a reason he was picked in the sixth round. To think he is the best quarterback D.J. Chark has played with at the professional level makes the arrival of Lawrence so much sweeter.

D.J. Moore doesn’t belong as a deep threat. Although he wasn’t terrible at the position, signs pointed to him belonging as the short to intermediate route runner. Last year he had 10 (No. 2) drops, a 75.9-percent (No. 94) True Catch Rate, and a 50.0-percent (No. 38) Contested Catch Rate; all were significant drops from his 2019 marks. Using Terrace Marshall on the outside would allow Moore to get more work in the slot.

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins jump up the board after landing in super shallow receiver rooms. St. Brown can seize a phenomenal opportunity to be the alpha in Detroit with his 86th-percentile Burst. Not to mention that he also checks the boxes for upper-percentile College Dominator Rating (62nd-percentile) and Breakout Age (91st-percentile).

Seth Williams is the biggest faller in this round after going at the 3.07 in the previous mock. Sixth round draft capital to a team with a crowded wide receiver depth chart sunk the value of what was once a coveted prospect in this circle. Though his upper-percentile College Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, and Speed Score give him the potential to break out regardless of his situation.

Jaylen Waddle to the Dolphins is an interesting landing spot. He’ll be competing with Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, and Mike Gesicki for targets. No doubt a crowded offense for him to break out in, but he does have a connection with Tua Tagovailoa. Still, he doesn’t have an alpha profile, and his Best Comparable Players aren’t exciting either, with John Brown being his most favorable.

When you think of a player both film grinders and analytics gurus can enjoy, DeVonta Smith definitely doesn’t come to mind. Yes, Smith was a great college player, but his weight is the big issue. A listed weight of 170-pounds certainly warrants skepticism. Only a couple players come to mind when you think of successful lightweight receivers: Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson. When it comes to weight, he is undoubtedly an outlier.

Grab a cup of water, this mock comes out of the gate HOT! Setting flames to a stacked QB class, Kyle Pitts boldly goes at the 1.01. That’s planting a flag, love the assertiveness! The win-win move is probably trading back and still acquiring Pitts – that’s not an option in this mock. He’s an uber talent, but the rookie has significant work to do to match the ultra-high expectations of this draft season.

In this TE premium format, our drafters take a gamble on several upside TEs in Round 5. Focusing on the right details, each of the tight-ends selected have one thing in common – athleticism. For instance, 6-5, 250-pound John Bates has an 11.20 (89th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Agility Score, while Indy’s Kylen Granson exhibits 75th-plus-percentile metrics across agility, burst and 40-time. The late-round lesson here: bet on athletes.

It should come as no surprise that the rookie tight with the best chance of being fantasy relevant in 2021 is Kyle Pitts. Shocking, I know. But when a team makes a player the highest-drafted tight end in NFL HISTORY, you have to assume that they have a plan to use him. The defense did not appreciably improve from the woeful unit it was last year, and should once again rely on Matt Ryan’s arm, which is good news for Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and of course Pitts.

Brevin Jordan joins a crowded tight end room, with players like Jordan Akins, Kahale Warring and Ryan Izzo for company. But the turbulent nature of the Texans means we don’t know who will be tasked with sending the ball their way in 2021 and beyond. Jordan could emerge as this year’s Chris Herndon. An unspectacular prospect who was able to post decent fantasy production as a rookie. But betting on anything positive emerging from the Texans at present is a gamble I would not like to take.