Fantasy Football

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter today with one of the best overall teams in the NFL. Tom Brady is playing like he’s 25, Leonard Fournette has unlocked bell-cow mode, and all three starting receivers are in the top 16 in Fantasy Points Per Game. The Bucs have a tough matchup on a short week, but look to stay firing on all cylinders.

The Philadelphia Eagles come in with a struggling, but talented, offense and a firewall of a defense. Jalen Hurts has been electric for fantasy, accurately spreading the ball around and staying effective on the ground. Rookie Devonta Smith, his number one target, is primed for his biggest game of the season against washed veteran Richard Sherman.

Darrell Henderson is seeing all of the fantasy-relevant backfield touches in LA, and has a mouth watering schedule going forward. Tee Higgins doesn’t see the same elite level of Opportunity Share, but is an alpha receiver who is the secondary target on a team increasing in pace by the week.

DeVante Parker is soaking up opportunity and dominating production in Miami’s receiver room. Miami is throwing the ball at a high rate, getting Tua Tagovailoa soon, and hitting their softest stretch of schedule.

Justin Fields averaged 9.4 (No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks) Air Yards Per Attempt prior to Week 5 and has looked a bit better each week. He hasn’t been running the ball as much as expected, but that will come given his speed. The Packers will be without Jaire Alexander, and replacement corner Kevin King ranks outside the top 100 among CBs for yards per receptions allowed and Passer Rating allowed. Fields has been airing the ball downfield in his first few starts, so expect him to connect on a couple of those against a Packers secondary that is a little more breakable without Alexander.

Cleveland’s defense has been stingy against the run, with Austin Ekeler’s 66 rush yards being the most an RB has gotten against the Browns so far this season. Cleveland’s opponents often go pass-heavy, a game plan that favors Arizona’s receivers and Chase Edmonds more than James Conner. With 5 TDs this season, Conner has been the goal-line back for the Cardinals. However, he only has 4 total receptions and averaged 3.2 (No. 58) True Yards Per Carry prior to Week 5, before gaining just 2.9 yards per tote. Conner won’t see a good matchup for his skillset this week in Cleveland.

Devontae Booker should draw a few starts while Saquon Barkley deals with an ankle injury. Booker filled in well this past week when Barkley left the game, finishing with 58 yards rushing and a TD. Expect high-volume touches for as long as Barkley is out. He certainly meets the criteria if you are a “pay for touches” type with your FAAB bidding.  

David Njoku is coming off an incredible seven-catch, 149-yard and a TD performance in Cleveland’s shootout loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. Njoku saw 10 targets. This game is most likely a one-off, but he should be added this week on the chance that he sees increased usage based on production.  

The Indianapolis Colts have struggled to move the ball all season, and now they face an uphill battle against the Baltimore Ravens. Carson Wentz has been serviceable, but his lack of upside makes him a tough start in standard roster formats. He has shown an ability to get the ball to Michael Pittman. Despite negative Game Scripts, the team continues to feed running back Jonathan Taylor.

The Ravens have the much better team. Lamar Jackson is primed to scorch the Colts, in route to feeding Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Baltimore’s running back room remains a crap shoot that makes it impossible to trust any of them in seasonal leagues.

In college, Kenny Gainwell stood out in a loaded Memphis backfield. It appears to be deja-vu in Philly. On the season, Gainwell has 19 carries and earned 18 targets, compared to Sanders’ 37 and 14, respectively. While the two are equal in terms of True Yards Per Carry (4.4), Gainwell has been the more efficient back. He leads his running  mate in metrics such as Evaded Tackles (7 to 4), Juke Rate (21.9 to 8.3-percent), and Yards Per Touch (6.2 to 5.7). Gainwell earns 14.29 Lifetime Value points to jump eight spots to RB28.

Ben Roethlisberger has struggled mightily since the first snap of 2021. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, since he wasn’t necessarily sharp to close out 2020. Big Ben leads the league in both Danger Plays (20) and Interceptable Passes (18). He’s averaging a weak 6.1 Yards Per Attempt (No. 31) with a True Passer Rating of 48.4-percent (No. 30). Four weeks and three losses into the Steelers’ 2021 campaign, Roethlisberger has yet to post a Top 20 QB fantasy finish. His best result is a 15.2 point QB23 performance in Week 3. The stock of the 39-year-old signal caller continues its decent losing another four spots to QB38.

Michael Thomas is expected to return Week 7. I expect him to completely open up this offense and finally give the Saints another dimension they so desperately need. Do I expect them to be high flying through the air? No, but they will increase their passing volume significantly. Finally Jameis Winston can get the ball go to a weapon in the passing game. Once he’s back he will lead the league in target share and be a PPR superstar again. Go get Thomas before your league mates remember who he is.

As historically bad as tight ends have been their rookie year, it may not be enough to derail Kyle Pitts’ breakout. His raw talent is unquestioned but that’s not what will make him productive this season. He has 135 Routes Run (No. 3), 26 Targets (No. 6), 219 Air Yards (No. 6), 6 Red Zone Targets (No. 2). The Falcons are using him and its only a matter of time before his production matches what his metrics suggest. Go get him from the disappointed owner who drafted him.

The Rams are rolling and Matthew Stafford is balling. They face off against the Seahawks and their near league worst defense, which bodes well for the success of fantasy assets Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp.

The Seahawks have been struggling to win, and Chef Russ hasn’t been cooking the last two weeks. With the projected Game Script and Chris Carson likely out, Seattle will pass more. Tyler Lockett looks to have another boom week, while D.K. Metcalf draws the short straw with his matchup against Jalen Ramsey.

Chase opportunity, and the production will come. Antonio Brown and Courtland Sutton are two receivers who have been receiving mouth-watering opportunity shares. Both players have posted a 20 point week, but a lack of touchdowns have pushed down their value.

Chase Edmonds is the buy of the week. He’s efficient, consistent, and the clear number one back on a team that has the league’s number one Game Script. James Conner is dust. Don’t let a few touchdowns scare you away from a PPR RB1.

David Montgomery is week to week with a knee injury. Damien Williams (provided he is good to go with a thigh bruise) should step right into a high-volume role in the Bears offense. Williams has had fantasy success and is a two-way threat that should play on passing downs and see the goal-line work. We do not know how long Montgomery will be out. Williams should be a very hot addition this week and should be very useful in the short term, and potentially longer. 

Dawson Knox appears to be this year’s Robert Tonyan. The third-year player now has caught four TD passes, including two this past weekend in the Bills 40-0 rout of Houston. Knox should be viewed as a TE1 moving forward. He is one of the Bills’ best red zone threats and is coming off a season-high eight targets.