Fantasy Football

Justin Jefferson and Mike Williams are two receivers who have nuclear upside and significant opportunity shares, but have had somewhat of a slump the past few weeks. Both of their teams throw at a high rate and perform better in games where they’re heavily featured. This is the time to take advantage of the value dip.

Jerry Jeudy came off of IR last week and had a solid first outing. He led the team in receptions and logged over 70-percent of the snaps. Jeudy is a dynamic play-maker that suits Teddy Bridgewater’s style of play. You can aquire him now at his near-lowest value.

Raven safeties and linebackers have struggled in coverage and the defense overall has not been great at tackling. Tyler Conklin is the fourth-highest targeted receiver in a Vikings offense that entered Week 8 with the fifth-most team pass plays in the league. Conklin is a good gamble to take against a struggling defense on a pass-favorable team.

Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick combined for nine receptions last week. Heading into Week 8, Sutton led the league with 928 (No. 1) Air Yards, but subsequently had 480 (No. 1) Unrealized Air Yards. Both Patrick’s and Sutton’s Target Accuracies and yards per target ranked outside the top 25 receivers entering Week 8. Meanwhile, Jeudy has just returned from injury. The Broncos receivers are victims of mediocre QB play and will struggle to put up fantasy numbers against a solid Dallas secondary.

Jeremy McNichols has a leg up on Adrian Peterson (for now) as the incumbent back, and is a capable pass-catcher. He should see a good deal of work this week, but predicting the usage starting in Week 10 is difficult. If I could roster one of the two, I would take McNichols, but you want exposure to both backs. This could end up being an ugly committee backfield, but one of the two has a shot at RB2 production the rest of the way. 

If Kyle Pitts were not Kyle Pitts, Pat Freiermuth would have a lot more buzz right now. He is flashing and looks like a potential future top-five fantasy TE. Right now, he should be viewed as a streamer/bye-week fill-in, but he could be a locked-in fantasy starter by playoff time if his role stays the same.

Enjoy Mike White’s performance. Don’t expect it to continue, but today showed us that in an emergency, go ahead and break the glass that is any starting NFL QB. Even in really bad matchups, when you have to take a chance, you have to take a chance.

Like the Jets, lean on Michael Carter. He fits today’s NFL. He’s agile, quick enough, and a solid pass catcher. Receiving backs will always put up stats. He has now proven himself a high-floor, high-ceiling rookie. Winning or losing, the Jets will give him the ball.

Daniel Jones and the Giants have been up and down, but have shown the ability to hang around and produce close games. Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney have gobbled up targets and have been solid WR2’s. Devontae Booker has been quietly effective as the temporary lead back, but looks to improve on a stretch of RB3 performances.

There’s not much to say about the Chiefs. While the offense has struggled recently, this is the perfect get-right spot. They elite playmakers weren’t leaving lineups regardless. Other players like Darrel Williams and Mecole Hardman are high risk/high reward.

Kalif Raymond is top-25 among wide receivers in Yards After Catch Per Target (3.38) and Yards After Catch Per Reception (5.08). Why is this important? The Eagles defense is allowing a completion percentage of 74.36-percent of all passes and their 821 Yards After Catch allowed is 12th-most in the NFL. If Terry McLaurin can’t get his yards through the air, he’ll have a difficult time getting it after the catch. The Broncos have allowed 653 (third-fewest) Yards After Catch this season.

This brings us to the Rams’ opponent, the Houston Texans. Their defense has allowed 1149 (No. 4) Completed Air Yards and have allowed an Average Target Distance of 8.7 (ninth-most in the NFL). There aren’t many wide receivers available in free agency that have six consecutive weeks of 25+ Routes Run. Scoop up Van Jefferson and start him this week!

Heading into Week 8, Cooper Kupp leads all NFL WRs in receptions (56), targets (81), receiving yards (809), touchdowns (9), and of course, Fantasy Points Per Game (27.2). Kupp is poised to easily smash his career best 1162 yard and 10 touchdown season that he posted on 94 receptions in 2019. Trending way up in 2021, the 28-year-old Kupp’s dynasty stock accrues 19.29 Lifetime Value points (the most of any WR in the latest rankings update) to move six spots to WR15.

After struggling in last week’s match-up against the New York Giants, Sam Darnold was shown the bench early in the fourth quarter. Since he posted the top QB performance in Week 4, the wheels have fallen off. Darnold has thrown five interception in the last three games, averaging a mere 4.7 Yards Per Attempt. On the season, he has an underwhelming Accuracy Rating of 7.2 (No. 29) with a True Completion Percentage of 68.6-percent (No. 28). Darnold loses 8.10 Lifetime Value points (the biggest QB faller this week) and five spots to slip to QB29 in the dynasty rankings.

The Green Bay Packers come into this game missing both Davante Adams and Alan Lazard. With a depleted receiving core, Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan look to fill the void. With Aaron Rodgers, there’s always a chance, but the Packers will have to play lights out to win tonight.

The Arizona Cardinals are undefeated, and steamrolling opponents. The Konami QB Kyler Murray is putting up monster numbers, DeAndre Hopkins has found his groove again, and Zach Ertz could take this offense to another level. The Cardinals are rightfully heavy favorites tonight.

Javonte Williams inches closer and closer to his breakout game every week. He’s efficient through both the ground and the air, and has a mouth-watering end-of-season schedule. Dallas Goedert is now free of the chains of Zach Ertz, allowing himself to soak up even more opportunity on a pass heavy offense deprived of reliable pass catchers.

Antonio Gibson is this weeks “buy of the week”. He has an incredible prospect profile, and earned a hefty Opportunity Share to start the season. Hindered with a shin injury for the time being, the value of Gibson is tanking. Now is the time to capitalize on this before he regains health and begins to explode yet again.

Damien Harris has been an aggressive, excellent runner for the Patriots. He had a 7.4-percent (No. 9 among qualified running backs) Breakaway Run Rate entering Week 7, and ripped off 106 rush yards on 14 carries in Week 7. Meanwhile, the Chargers have allowed over 100 yards rushing to opponents every week except Week 4 this season. The Patriots use several different backs, but Harris is the primary downhill runner, seeing at least 14 carries the last three weeks and scoring in all three games.

You may be thinking of starting Ben Roethlisberger as a streamer in case you have Lamar Jackson or Derek Carr on bye. Don’t. Despite good WRs and a 90.7-percent (No. 1 among QBs entering Week 7) Protection Rate, Roethlisberger has average 13.2 (No. 29 entering Week 7) Fantasy Points Per Game. He also ranked No. 1 among QBs entering Week 7 for Danger Plays and Interceptable Passes.