Prop Plays

Don’t look now, but Laquon Treadwell is the No. 1 wide receiver in Jacksonville. Jamal Agnew was sent to the Injured Reserve two weeks ago and since then, Treadwell has seen significant opportunity: 91.5-percent and 92.7-percent Snap Shares, 40 and 27 Routes, 8 and 5 Targets. Also, he has hit the OVER in each of these games and he’ll do so again when he matches up against PlayerProfiler.com’s No. 107-ranked cornerback, Chris Jackson.

I’m not sure why the Ezekiel Elliott line hasn’t adjusted, considering that Tony Pollard tore his left plantar facia last week. This line is low hanging fruit based on volume alone. While Washington is effective at defending against the run, they will be hard pressed to stop Ezekiel Elliott from going OVER 53.5 rushing yards in a divisional matchup with a 48 point game total.

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Vegas predicts that the divisional matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, with a 50.5-point total. And the beloved Cordarrelle Patterson will be the beneficiary, hitting the OVER with ease. Patterson is one of the most efficient “running backs” in the NFL. His 12.2 (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Yards Per Reception and 6.8 (No. 1) Yards Per Touch will be on full display against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Ja’Marr Chase is coming to smash the OVER in another game with a high total of 49.5 points. Three of the past four games were blowout victories for the Bengals, which have contributed to Chase’s subpar receiving yards. On the contrary, the competitive matchup against the Chargers will provide more opportunity for Chase to rack up yards with his 99.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation and 41.6-percent (No. 4) Air Yards Share. 

Cam Newton and Robby Anderson are BACK. Anderson has averaged 6 targets and 4.5 receptions on a 20-percent Target Share in his last two games without Sam Darnold. Also, the matchup is prime for Anderson because Miami ranks last in receiving yards and receptions allowed. The probability of Anderson hitting the OVER is strong when considering his current trajectory in the Carolina offense in conjunction with the leaky Miami defense.

Take the OVER on Trevor Lawrence in a bounce back game against Atlanta. Lawrence hit the UNDER on this line in his past three games against Buffalo, Indianapolis and San Francisco, but Atlanta’s defense is one of the friendliest to opposing quarterbacks, ranking dead last in quarterback pressures and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage. As a result, Lawrence will not be hamstrung by his dreadful 29.4-percent (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage.

The modest 26.5 receiving yards line for Adam Trautman is bound to hit the OVER. Trautman’s usage has surged since Trevor Siemian took over in Week  8, resulting in at least 6 targets per game. Moreover, his 3 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) drops show that he is catching the majority of these targets. Additionally, he has hit the OVER on 26.5 receiving yards in two out of three games since Week 8. Last but not least, Philadelphia ranks bottom-5 in yards allowed to tight ends.

While Michael Pittman has hit the over on this line 60-percent of the time, he hasn’t been successful when matched up against top-12 cornerbacks, per PlayerProfiler Cornerback Rankings. The only time Pittman hit the OVER against a top-12 CB was in Week 1 against Jalen Ramsey. This week, Pittman will be pitted against one the best cornerbacks in Tre’Davious White. White has yet to allow more than 52 yards to receivers through Week 10.

A bounce back week is on tap for the Bills when they face off against a “division rival” in the Jets and Emmanuel Sanders will continue to be heavily involved in this get right right matchup. He has made the most of the opportunity with 17.5 (No. 1 among qualified WRs) Average Target Distance and 17.1 (No. 6) Yards Per Reception. Most importantly, he has hit 52 receiving yards in six out of eight games this season.

Seattle’s horrific rush defense will yield over 44.5 rushing yards to A.J. Dillon this weekend. Dillon has at least a 30-percent Snap Share in five games since Week 4, and he has hit this line in four out of five of those games. If this trend continues, then I would take the OVER on this line up to 46.5 rushing yards.

Put some respect on Patrick Mahomes and take the OVER on his passing yards line this week. My confidence in this take is driven by the sheer passing volume that the Chiefs have displayed this season. Mahomes ranks top-3 in many passing opportunity metrics. This game has a decent points total of 48, so Mahomes will continue to air it out to stay competitive because their defense has no chance of slowing down anything.

I love this Zack Moss line because the Bills are 13.5 point favorites against the feeble Jaguars, so game script will naturally lend to running back volume for Buffalo. In fact, Buffalo has a +8.65 (No. 1) Game Script score, so leading early and often is certainly in the cards this weekend. Additionally, Buffalo runs the ball at a high-rate, with 28.7 (No. 9) Team Run Plays Per Game. All things considered, Moss will receive ample opportunity to compile rushing and receiving yards in a cake matchup.

At first glance it seems crazy to take the UNDER on Joe Burrow, who just torched the Ravens for 416 yards. Not only does Burrow rank bottom-4 with 30.4 Team Pass Plays Per Game, but also the Jets have been playing from behind more than any other team, shown by a -11.65 Game Script score. Consequently, the Under on a passing yards line is encouraged when the opposing team has a poor offense. 

Jalen Hurts will put the team on his back by effectively moving the ball through the air and on the ground against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Hurts has a high-rushing floor, accounting for 44.19-percent of the Eagles’ rushing yards. Also, his 361 rushing yards ranks No. 2 among all QBs this season. His rushing ability will be on full display against a Lions defense is bottom-12 in rushing yards allowed per game. And when it comes to defending the pass, the Lions aren’t much better, allowing the 8th most passing yards to offenses through Week 8.

You can almost set your watch to Lamar Jackson generating more than 300 yards per game because he has done it in five out of six games this year. He’s doing it through the air (281.0 passing yards per game) and on the ground (65.3 rushing yards per game).While last week’s shocking blowout victory over the Chargers stifled his production, I believe that a divisional matchup with the Bengals will highlight premier Lamar Jackson.

The Cordarrelle Patterson experience is just getting started, so strap in and go hard on this soft line. Patterson averaged 11.25 Total Touches Week 5. Enter Week 6, where his Total Touches spiked to 23. If this usage continues, then he will smash with his 7.1 Yards Per Touch (No. 1 among qualified RB’s) and Underdog Fantasy will have to set his line closer to 90 yards for Week 7.

Mac Jones and the Patriots will look to move the ball through the air against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards through Week 5. And throwing the ball isn’t out of the ordinary for Mac Jones, exhibited by a 38.4 (No. 9) Team Pass Plays Per Game average. Jones has also been fairly productive, with 742 (No. 12 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards and an excellent 8.2 (No. 1) Accuracy Rating. I expect this to be a sneaky shootout.

Take the over on a wide receiver who is masked as a tight end. Mike Gesicki’s position-leading 133 Slot Snaps and 140 (No. 6) Routes Run are metrics indicative of a wide receiver, not a tight end. Additionally, his 17.0-percent (No. 2) Hog Rate means that he is receiving a high Target Rate in relation to his Snap Share. Therefore, when this “TE” is on the field, he is being utilized in the passing game more often than not.