Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 7

In this weekly series, I’ll outline my five favorite picks for the Sunday slate and provide a sample slip. As always, mix up the combinations and sacrifice a lamb or two.

Week 7 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Mike Gesicki OVER 42.5 Rec Yds

Line Update: 45.5 Rec Yds

Confidence Level: Higher than high

I’m going back to the well with the Over on Mike Gesicki 42.5 receiving yards because he is clearly one of the top-options in the Miami offense. He is leading all tight ends with a 25.8-percent Air Yards Share, compiling 419 Air Yards through Week 6. Not only this, but he is also securing heavy volume with 42 targets on an 18.1-percent Target Share. Ultimately, I’m confident that the Gesicki well is full because it has delivered in four out of six games this year.

Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 77.5 Rush + Rec Yds

Line Update: 79.5 Rush + Rec Yds

Confidence level: High

The Cordarrelle Patterson experience is just getting started, so strap in and go hard on this soft line.

Patterson averaged 11.25 Total Touches through Week 5. Enter Week 6, where his Total Touches spiked to 23. If this usage continues, then he will smash with his 7.1 Yards Per Touch (No. 1 among qualified RB’s) and Underdog Fantasy will have to set his line closer to 90 yards for Week 7.

Lamar Jackson OVER 297.5 Total Yards

Line Update: 302.5 Total Yds

Confidence level: High

You can almost set your watch to Lamar Jackson generating more than 300 yards per game because he has done it in five out of six games this year. He’s doing it through the air (281.0 passing yards per game) and on the ground (65.3 rushing yards per game). While last week’s shocking blowout victory over the Chargers stifled his production, I believe that a divisional matchup with the Bengals will highlight premier Lamar Jackson.

Marquise Brown OVER 58.5 Rec Yds

Confidence Level: High

Marquise Brown is my correlation pick for Lamar Jackson because he ranks top-12 in some important receiving metrics. Brown’s 324 Completed Air Yards are being hauled in at a 74.4-percent Catch Rate, so it’s no surprise that his 486 receiving yards have hit this line in four out of six games this season.

Don’t be dissuaded by the Rashod Bateman‘s presence. Although Bateman exhibited a respectable 22.2-percent Target Share, 20 Air Yards, and 0 Deep Targets underwhelmed. Conversely, Brown’s 85.3 Air Yards Per Game and 1.8 Deep Targets Per Game prove that Bateman may not be ready to run a complete route tree post-surgery. Fantasy gamers are rightfully excited for the emergence of Bateman, but Brown is the guy until proven otherwise.

Joe Mixon OVER 76.5 Rush + Rec Yds

Line Update: 78.5 Rush + Rec Yds

Confidence Level: Medium

Cincinnati employs a considerable 27.0 Team Run Plays Per Game and bell cow Joe Mixon will be featured in the offensive game plan. Mixon has 111 Carries (No. 2 among qualified RBs) and a 73.0-percent Opportunity Share (No. 7), showing that Cincinnati uses him in all phases of the game. Along with this opportunity, his 95 total yards per game has been fueled by an impressive 50.7 Yards Created per game. Clearly, opportunity is king because he has surpassed this line in three out of five healthy games this year.

Week 6 Recap

I will recap my achievements and shortcomings for last week’s slip at the end of each article.

Mike Gesicki OVER 44.5 Rec Yds 

I started off the day hot with this pick when Mike Gesicki hit a whopping 115 receiving yards in London for the first game of the slate. My love for Gesicki will continue to flourish if he continues to lead all tight ends with a 25.8-percent Air Yards Share on a 17.4-percent HOG Rate.

Travis Kelce OVER 86.5 Rec Yds 

The streak stayed alive when Travis Kelce hit 99 receiving yards on 11 targets for 8 receptions, both a season high for Kelce. Moving forward, I’ll be sure to err on the side of caution when it comes to his Overs because he has surpassed 80 receiving yards in only half of his games this season.

Mac Jones OVER 264.5 Pass Yds 

I’m not making any excuses, but if Nelson Agholor caught this pass from Mac Jones in OT, then the entire slip would have had a chance to hit.

https://twitter.com/IHaveFourBalls/status/1449883421120008192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1449883421120008192%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpatriotswire.usatoday.com%2F2021%2F10%2F22%2Fnelson-agholor-discusses-crucial-dropped-pass-in-ot-loss-to-cowboys%2F

Jakobi Meyers OVER 62.5 Rec Yds 

It was surprising to see Jakobi Meyers’ Snap Share drop from 93.6-percent through Week 5 to 60-percent against Dallas. As a result, I won’t be taking the over on Meyers unless either the line is close to 40 receiving yards or if his snap share jumps back up to 90-percent.

Jonnu Smith OVER 17.5 Rec Yds 

In retrospect, it wasn’t wise to take the over on Jonnu Smith. Week 6 saw him repeat two targets, but this time it only resulted in one reception. His line will need to be closer to 11 yards for me to feel comfortable in taking the over, unless he sees an increase in target volume.