Prop Plays

The preseason is now over. The NFL season is just around the corner, and you may be wondering how exactly is each AFC West team looking as we charge straight toward Week 1 like a runaway train?! The following article are my collection of thoughts as to where each team sits as they end the preseason, and my predictions for how things will shake out within the most tumultuous division in all of football! Sit back, relax, and enjoy the show!

Training camp is in full swing so it’s time to check in on how the AFC South is looking. How is Derrick Henry looking? Is Matt Ryan gelling with the new organization? What is the Texans offense looking like? Is Trevor Lawrence on the right path? All of these questions will be answered and more.

We are drawing closer to the start of the 2022 NFL season. Today we inspect every game of the slate in Week 1. Before we get elbows deep in this, I would like to speak about gambling. If you’re new to gambling, what should you expect?

What advantages do season long bets have? Let’s use a linear regression model to find out. My last article I wrote regarding win totals. Today, I will give everyone great insight into my model’s best values for picking future bets such as “Division Winners” and “To Make Playoffs.”

Do the Minnesota Vikings have what it takes to dethrone Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers this year? The Vikings certainly have a talented roster, but as with all rosters a lot depends on the play of the quarterback, and no quarterback has been maligned as much by their respective fan base as Kirk Cousins.

Ride the Evan McPherson hype train to the bank. Mcpherson has hit this line in 12/19 games this season and has nailed 4 field goals in every playoff game this year. Not only has he been kicking hot, but all kickers this postseason have been performing at a high-level. Kickers in the 2021 postseason have averaged 1.92 field goal attempts per game and have a 89.1-percent success rate. Lock in the captain of the Bengals Swag Factory to go Over 1.5 Field Goals Made.

Van Jefferson Longest Reception Over 17.5 is a good bet because he has been a sneaky deep threat this year. Jefferson has a 13.3 (No. 11 among qualified WR) Average Target Distance (ADOT) and 16.0 (No. 7) Yards Per Reception on 5.2 Targets Per Game. As a result, he has hit this line in 16/19 games this season! Borderline lock confidence on this one.

Prop bets are becoming staples of the Super Bowl, and every year we look to have fun with some of the random ones. For example, “Will a player drop the trophy?” or “What color is the Gatorade?” However, I’m interested in the ones I can predict. So I turn to Underdog because I like the odds, and their app is easy to use. 

I firmly believe we will see the first wide receiver since Greg Jennings in 2011 haul in two touchdowns during the Super Bowl. I still like Kendall Blanton, but without Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp should have far more red-zone-designed plays. With two touchdowns, you don’t need a massive performance in the air, which is why I will pair combinations of Kupp’s OVER in fantasy points with the other receiving option’s overs in yards. 

The Jaguars have nothing to lose, but Marvin Jones will lose $500,000 if he doesn’t bring in four receptions against the Colts. As a result, his volume will be safe in Jacksonville’s Week 18 pride match. Jones has reached 43 yards in five of his last seven games, so this modest line has a strong chance to hit the OVER. Also, he won’t have difficulty producing yards against PlayerProfiler’s CB64, Isaiah Rodgers.

It’s Gronk smash time in an important matchup against Carolina. The Buccaneers will lean heavily on Rob Gronkowsi because they are without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. Carolina’s defense yields a high percentage of it’s targets allowed to tight ends and Gronk will make the most of this opportunity with his 10.4 (No. 1 among qualified tight ends) Average Target Distance. Most importantly, he needs 85 receiving yards to earn a $500,000 incentive bonus. Cash out with Gronk.

Veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is set for big opportunity in pivotal division matchup today against the Patriots. The Bills will be without both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, resulting in a target void that Sanders will have to fill on team that runs 38.4 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays Per Game. And the icing on the cake for this line is that Sanders has a 16.2 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance, demonstrating that he will hit this line in the first half with his presumed spike in volume.

The theme of the picks thus far has been COVID-19/injury induced opportunity. Another prime example of this is the Damien Harris rushing line on Underdog Fantasy. The Patriots will be without Rhamondre Stevenson and potentially Brandon Bolden, leaving Harris with the lion’s share of carries against a Buffalo team that has allowed 170 rushing yards per game in the last three games. Harris torched the Bills in Week 13 with 111 yards on 10 carries and while his efficiency will certainly regress, his opportunity will boom on a team with 28.4 (No. 8) Team Run Plays Per Game.

Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID-19 list, priming Mike Gesicki to smash the OVER on his Underdog Fantasy line this weekend. Gesicki already sees 6.8 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Targets Per Game and he will surely benefit from Waddle’s vacated 8.9 Targets Per Game. Consequently, Gesicki’s 25.3-percent (No. 5) Air Yards Share has no where to go but up. He has hit 46 receiving yards in eight out of thirteen games this season and he’ll certainly hit the OVER against the Jets on Sunday.

Everyone has the Bills projected to crush the Panthers today and that can make it tempting to take the OVER on this line. However, Stefon Diggs will find it difficult to produce against one of the leagues best cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore. A quick glance at Gilmore’s player page on PlayerProfiler.com shows that he has allowed only 2 receptions since joining the Panthers in Week 10. Diggs has hit the OVER on this line in four out of 13 games this season. Now is the time to hit the UNDER.