Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 10

by Cornhole God · Prop Plays

In this weekly series, I’ll outline my five favorite picks for the Sunday slate and provide a sample slip. As always, mix up the combinations and sacrifice a lamb or two.

Week 10 Underdog Pick’em Plays

Emmanuel Sanders OVER 52.5 Rec Yds

Confidence Level: Higher than high

A bounce back week is on tap for the Bills when they face off against a “division rival” in the Jets and Emmanuel Sanders will continue to be heavily involved in this get right right matchup. Buffalo averages 40.1 (No. 3) Team Pass Plays Per Game, providing solid opportunity for Sanders to rack up targets and receptions. Subsequently, he has made the most of the opportunity with 17.5 (No. 1 among qualified WRs) Average Target Distance and 17.1 (No. 6) Yards Per Reception. Most importantly, he has hit 52 receiving yards in six out of eight games this season.

Hit an easy layup and take the OVER on this line up to 56.5 receiving yards.

A.J. Dillon OVER 44.5 Rush Yds

Confidence Level: High

Seattle’s horrific rush defense will yield over 44.5 rushing yards to A.J. Dillon this weekend. Dillon has at least a 30-percent Snap Share in five games since Week 4, and he has hit this line in four out of five of those games. If this trend continues, then I would take the OVER on this line up to 46.5 rushing yards.

Teddy Bridgewater UNDER 254.5 Pass Yds

Confidence Level: High

The game between the Broncos and the Eagles will be ugly, so take the UNDER on Teddy Bridgewater. First, this matchup has one of the lowest points totals this week at 45.5. Second, Philadelphia has averaged 15.5 pass attempts per game since Week 7; as a result, there will be fewer offensive opportunities for Denver because the Eagles have been running the clock with a ground-heavy attack. Finally, the Broncos will likely employ a rushing attack against the Eagles’ bottom-10 rushing defense.

Confidently take the UNDER because Teddy Bridgewater has hit the OVER on this line in four out of nine games this season.

Mike White UNDER 237.5 Pass Yds

Confidence Level: High
Lightning never strikes the same place twice. Mike White threw for over 400 yards against the Bengals, but Cincinnati’s passing defense is bottom-5 in the league. Buffalo, however, has one of the best defenses in the NFL and they will terrorize the inexperienced White. In fact, they have only given up more than 237.5 yards to Patrick Mahomes, so it’s unlikely that White will succeed.

Dalton Schultz UNDER 51.5 Rec Yds

Confidence Level: Medium

Dalton Schultz has been a productive tight end this season, but this line is too high for a player who is due for increased target competition with the return of Michael Gallup. In spite of this, Schultz has seen a dip in his Target Share since Week 4.

Dalton Schultz Target Share

I’m betting on the dip and taking the UNDER on this line.


Week 9 Recap (1 for 5)

Last week was horrendous. The process for taking the overs was based on volume and game script presumptions, which turned out to be true in some ways, but wrong in the most important way: correctly predicting the player prop.

Bryan Edwards OVER 44.5 Rec Yds ⭕

Bryan Edwards saw season high a 94.0-percent Snap Share along with a season best 41 routes. However, the result was 4 targets for 0 receptions. Unfortunate.

Zack Moss OVER 60.5 Rush + Rec Yds ⭕

The presumed positive game script flipped upside down when the Jaguars upset the Bills. A wild game environment coupled with a head injury to Zack Moss resulted in a failed pick.

Myles Gaskin OVER 69.5 Rush + Rec Yds ⭕

My prediction for significant opportunity proved true, but Myles Gaskin disappointed with a lackluster performance. He turned 20 carries and 6 receptions into 57 total yards, burying me deeper into a pitiful pit of picks.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 291.5 Pass Yds ⭕

AGAIN, the volume was there, but the yardage was NOT! Patrick Mahomes threw the ball 37 times with a 54.1-percent Completion Percentage at 4.5 Yards Per Attempt. Woe is me!

Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 77.5 Rush + Rec Yds ✅

Cordarrelle Patterson struck gold once again with an excellent performance against the Saints. His 12.1 (No. 2 among qualified RBs) Yards Per Reception makes him one of my favorite OVER picks on a weekly basis.