DFS

D.J. Moore has averaged almost 15.0 Fantasy Points Per Game since Cam Newton’s return as starter. He is the primary option for Carolina to move the ball in the passing game and has not yet hit his ceiling as he is seeing at least seven targets per game and is averaging over 100 Air Yards the past three weeks. Moore, even against a tough Buffalo secondary should find himself on your roster regardless of format.

Michael Gallup squeezes onto the list again this week in favor of an uninspiring Tim Patrick (DK: $4,500). He simply has more upside and needs to be mentioned. Gallup was a big play away last week from a huge fantasy day, and is averaging 109 Air Yards over the past four games. His floor during this time has been a respectable 12.65 fantasy points. The boom week is coming. You have been placed on notice.

Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID-19 list, priming Mike Gesicki to smash the OVER on his Underdog Fantasy line this weekend. Gesicki already sees 6.8 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Targets Per Game and he will surely benefit from Waddle’s vacated 8.9 Targets Per Game. Consequently, Gesicki’s 25.3-percent (No. 5) Air Yards Share has no where to go but up. He has hit 46 receiving yards in eight out of thirteen games this season and he’ll certainly hit the OVER against the Jets on Sunday.

Everyone has the Bills projected to crush the Panthers today and that can make it tempting to take the OVER on this line. However, Stefon Diggs will find it difficult to produce against one of the leagues best cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore. A quick glance at Gilmore’s player page on PlayerProfiler.com shows that he has allowed only 2 receptions since joining the Panthers in Week 10. Diggs has hit the OVER on this line in four out of 13 games this season. Now is the time to hit the UNDER.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. The guys that are the best values in this index have the touchdown scoring upside but also have the upside of putting up zero points. Myles Gaskin is the only player on the list that has a trustworthy floor, the others have multiple touchdown upside but also have zero point downside.
 

George Kittle will be massive chalk, but has broken the slate in back-to-back weeks. His 40-percent Target Share in Weeks 13 and 14 are likely an outlier, but his normal Target Share outside of those weeks was still a healthy 21-percent. I believe this game is the biggest blowout on the slate and would be open to running some three-plus player stacks on the 49ers side of the ball.

Regardless if Chase Edmonds is activated from IR, James Conner is still very much in play. The Cardinals have a slate-high 30-point implied team total and some of that should be expected to be earned on the ground. The Lions rank No. 10 or worse in Rushing Yards Allowed (135/gm/avg), Rushing TD Percentage (41-percent), and aFPA (No. 4). He makes for a nice one-off too if you’re fading Kyler Murray in a lineup or two.

With field salivating to play Gabriel Davis this week, pivot off the chalk to an underplayed Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs as the unquestioned target alpha in that offense. In the wake of the DeAndre Hopkins injury, A.J. Green is being forgotten about despite his fantasy friendly role in Arizona’s high-powered offense. He’s too cheap to ignore this week.

Patrick Mahomes is priced up at $8,000, but he’s worth the spend-up at the position. Mahomes should have no problem returning to fantasy relevancy with a visit from a Raiders team he dismantled (39DKPt) a couple weeks back. In a game tied for No. 1 in Pace of Play, The Chiefs own a slate-high 28.75 Vegas team total.

With cheaper bellcow streamers soaking up ownership, Alvin Kamara is a light-chalk leverage play in a smash spot against the Jets. The Jets have had no answer for enemy running backs allowing a league-worst 36.9 DKPt/game average. Ranking last in Rush Percentage Inside 10 has resulted in 18 enemy rushing touchdowns (also league worst). Interestingly, Kamara still ranks inside the top 10 in Carries Inside 10 (13 carries), even after missing four weeks with a knee injury. It’s Kamara time.

Don’t look now, but Laquon Treadwell is the No. 1 wide receiver in Jacksonville. Jamal Agnew was sent to the Injured Reserve two weeks ago and since then, Treadwell has seen significant opportunity: 91.5-percent and 92.7-percent Snap Shares, 40 and 27 Routes, 8 and 5 Targets. Also, he has hit the OVER in each of these games and he’ll do so again when he matches up against PlayerProfiler.com’s No. 107-ranked cornerback, Chris Jackson.

I’m not sure why the Ezekiel Elliott line hasn’t adjusted, considering that Tony Pollard tore his left plantar facia last week. This line is low hanging fruit based on volume alone. While Washington is effective at defending against the run, they will be hard pressed to stop Ezekiel Elliott from going OVER 53.5 rushing yards in a divisional matchup with a 48 point game total.

This year, I’ve made hundreds of player prop picks week-after-week on Underdog Fantasy, netting thousands in profit. While anyone can make $1,000 by putting $50 on a Pick-5, it’s much more difficult to be sustainably profitable long-term.

I created this guide to help you do just that. It chronicles my revenge tour, time spent intensely researching player performance and the unique payout structure of platforms like Underdog Fantasy, where I was determined to find an edge for the 2021 season.

With how much preseason hype was surrounding Elijah Moore, I have been surprised at how quiet his second half breakout has been in the fantasy world. Moore quickly became Zach Wilson’s go-to after returning from injury. Earning a target on 34-percent of his routes run over the past two weeks and leading the team in targets in that same time frame. Moore will look to get fed more as his competition for targets has shrunk with Corey Davis missing the remainder of the season. The schedule for the Jets doesn’t scare anyone as Moore will continue to break out and bring some boom weeks.

Javonte Williams is shaping up to be the quintessential league winning running back. The ultimate breakout took place in Week 13 with Melvin Gordon inactive. Williams was the No. 1 running back in fantasy on the week. Racking up 102 rushing yards on 23 carries and topping it off with six receptions on nine targets for an additional 76 yards and a touchdown. With Gordon banged up, the door is open for Williams to take over and smash his way through an attractive schedule.

Terry McLaurin has now made the Paying Up section for two consecutive weeks. He has failed to score double digit fantasy points the past two weeks but should be able to rebound against an all or nothing Cowboys secondary. This game has shootout potential and McLaurin should be rostered everywhere, especially in tournament play.

Courtland Sutton showed some signs of life last week, cresting 100 Air Yards for the first time since Jerry Jeudy’s return to the lineup. However, he translated this opportunity into only 3.5 fantasy points, his worst weekly fantasy finish of the season. Sutton remains a full blown dart throw heading into Week 14, even with the Broncos facing an exploitable Lions secondary.