Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 14

by Edward DeLauter · Value Plays
terry-mclaurin-fantasy-football

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score. The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. This list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

For this week we will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500 and then focus on the top ten Air Yards Value Plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings. 

Paying Up

Terry McLaurin – DK: $7,000

Air Yards Value Score: 98.08

Air Yards: 1,288 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 44.4-percent (No. 1)
Unrealized Air Yards: 698 (No. 2)

Terry McLaurin has now made the Paying Up section for two consecutive weeks. He has failed to score double digit fantasy points the past two weeks but should be able to rebound against an all or nothing Cowboys secondary. This game has shootout potential and McLaurin should be rostered everywhere, especially in tournament play.

D.J. Moore – DK: $6,200

Air Yards Value Score: 93.80

Air Yards: 1,184 (No. 6)
Air Yards Share: 40.9-percent (No. 4)
Unrealized Air Yards: 636 (No. 4).

D.J. Moore has finished as a top 24 wide receiver in back-to back weeks. He has seen at least seven targets in the past four games and is averaging 82 Air Yards per game during this same time. He is a recommended play in all formats against a hapless Falcons secondary.

Top-10 Value List

No. 10) Michael Gallup – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 27.94

Air Yards: 441 (No. 68)
Air Yards Share: 29-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 228 (No. 63)

Michael Gallup skips ahead of Kalif Raymond (DK: $4,200) and Darius Slayton (DK: $4,400) to crack the top ten value list because we aren’t full blown masochists. Gallup has averaged over 103 Air Yards since his week 10 return and has seen over 100 Air Yards the past three games. Even with Amari Cooper back at full health, Gallup should see penalty of opportunities against a burnable Washington secondary.

No. 9) Sammy Watkins- DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 35.32

Air Yards: 587 (No. 49)
Air Yards Share: 23.0-percent (No. 52)
Unrealized Air Yards: 290 (No. 48)

Last week we talked about how Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman (DK: $4,700) were basically splitting the workload in Ravens passing game. So of course, Watkins separated himself from Bateman last week running 25 routes compared to the rookie’s 16 routes.

With Bateman still priced higher than Watkins this week, Watkins remains the best bet for fantasy production among the ancillary targets in the Ravens passing attack.

No. 8) Tim Patrick – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 37.57

Air Yards: 686 (No. 43)
Air Yards Share: 21.9-percent (No. 56)
Unrealized Air Yards: 310 (No. 44)

Tim Patrick had his worst fantasy finish of the season last week, posting only 1.9 fantasy points. Gone are the assured double digit fantasy point finishes that were common during the beginning of the year. However, Patrick is still seeing consistent volume averaging 56.5 Air Yards and 5.5 targets per game over the course of the past four weeks. He has no tournament upside and his cash game viability should still be there based on opportunity.

No. 7) Kenny Golladay – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 40.45

Air Yards: 598 (No. 47)
Air Yards Share: 27.0-percent (No. 44)
Unrealized Air Yards: 282 (No. 50)

Kenny Golladay has failed to post double digit fantasy points since Week 7. While he has cleared at least 58 Air Yards the past two games, he still has Mike Glennon throwing him the football and is set to face a tough Chargers secondary. Additionally, Sterling Shepard (DK: $4,600) appears set to return to the Giants passing attack.  Golladay is someone to stay away from when building your lineups this week.

No. 6) Robby Anderson – DK: $4,300

Air Yards Value Score: 49.46

Air Yards: 716 (No. 38)
Air Yards Share: 24.7-percent (No. 48)
Unrealized Air Yards: 515 (No. 14)

Robby Anderson‘s fantasy performance cratered again in Week 12 as Cam Newton turned into a pumpkin. However, Anderson saw 60 Air Yards, a figure he hasn’t reached since Week 7. With Matt Rhule looking to establish the run with pass-happy offensive coordinator Joe Brady now axed, Anderson is a mere tournament dart throw.

No. 5) Bryan Edwards – DK: $3,300

Air Yards Value Score: 50.60

Air Yards: 705 (No. 40)
Air Yards Share: 19.7-percent (No. 63)
Unrealized Air Yards: 401 (No. 29)

Bryan Edwards saw 80 Air Yards last week on five targets. This was the most opportunity he saw since Week 10. Utilized in the same high average depth of target fashion as both Zay Jones (DK: $3,400) and DeSean Jackson (DK: $3,900) in the Raiders offense, it’s anyone’s guess who will catch the deep balls thrown their way in Week 14. Edwards is the cheapest option though.

No. 4) Marquez Callaway – DK: $4,300

Air Yards Value Score: 57.94

Air Yards: 762 (No. 33)
Air Yards Share: 27.2-percent (No. 42)
Unrealized Air Yards: 419 (No. 26)

Marquez Callaway has seen four targets in each game the past four weeks. He also has seen at least 50 Air Yards in each game during this same time.

As has been the case in prior games this season, Callaway will have to find the endzone to be cash viable this week.

No. 3) Marvin Jones – DK: $4,500

Air Yards Value Score: 75.03

Air Yards: 924 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 30.4-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 462 (No. 462)

Marvin Jones finished with a season low 3.1 fantasy points last week despite ranking as the top Air Yards value play on the week. Bummer. While the veteran wide receiver has lagged behind “sixth-year breakout” Laquon Treadwell (DK: $3,400) in Air Yards the past two weeks, he has a commanding lead over Treadwell on the season and should be considered the preferred Jaguars pass catcher to play in fantasy, if there is such a thing.

Considering their recent usage I wouldn’t fault anyone for saving $1,100 of their budget, and rostering Treadwell over Jones.

No. 2) Emmanuel Sanders – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 75.41

Air Yards: 1,079 (No. 16)
Air Yards Share: 28.5-percent (No. 34)
Unrealized Air Yards: 567 (No. 11)

Emmanuel Sanders saw 53 Air Yards last week in a bizarre game where the wind was the best defender on the field. Over the past four games, Sanders has seen very similar usage to Gabriel Davis (DK: $3,500) with Sanders actually trailing Davis by 33 total Air Yards during this time. There should be lots of points scored this matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and both players make for a great run-back option if you are stacking Tom Brady and the Bucs this week.

No. 1) Courtland Sutton – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 1,176 (No. 7)
Air Yards Share: 37.5-percent (No. 14)
Unrealized Air Yards: 640 (No. 3)

Courtland Sutton showed some signs of life last week, cresting 100 Air Yards for the first time since Jerry Jeudy‘s return to the lineup. However, he translated this opportunity into only 3.5 fantasy points, his worst weekly fantasy finish of the season.

Sutton remains a full blown dart throw heading into Week 14, even with the Broncos facing an exploitable Lions secondary.

Good luck to everyone in Week 14. May all your Air Yards be realized.