DFS

With the field salivating over the Buccaneers Bills game, let’s identify the best leverage points in order to build tournament winning upside lineups. Paying up for Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill creates a unique stack opportunity on discounted popularity with the highest ceiling on the slate. Or look to the Cowboys with Michael Gallup as a central piece of the offense still priced in the mid $5k range as part of a Dak Prescott stack.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Although they come in at No. 5 and No. 3 on the index, Antonio Gibson and Leonard Gibson are both cash game and tournament viable, although both are preferred in tournaments. Darrel Williams, Adrian Peterson, and Zack Moss are not involved enough in the offense outside of the 10-yard line to be trusted in your lineups this week. 

Vegas predicts that the divisional matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, with a 50.5-point total. And the beloved Cordarrelle Patterson will be the beneficiary, hitting the OVER with ease. Patterson is one of the most efficient “running backs” in the NFL. His 12.2 (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Yards Per Reception and 6.8 (No. 1) Yards Per Touch will be on full display against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Ja’Marr Chase is coming to smash the OVER in another game with a high total of 49.5 points. Three of the past four games were blowout victories for the Bengals, which have contributed to Chase’s subpar receiving yards. On the contrary, the competitive matchup against the Chargers will provide more opportunity for Chase to rack up yards with his 99.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation and 41.6-percent (No. 4) Air Yards Share. 

The Bucs tend to pressure opposing teams into passing by running up the score. Since opposing offenses have mostly abandoned the run, the Bucs are allowing a league-high 71-percent Pass Percentage. They also allow a 75-percent (No. 3) Passing TD Percentage. Matt Ryan himself is inexpensive ($5,600) and his counterparts are as well (Kyle Pitts at $5,600 and Russell Gage at $5,300). Paying down for Ryan gives you a great way to approach the game ranked No. 3 in Pace of Play.

With Darren Waller listed doubtful with a variety of injuries, the public will be drawn to Foster Moreau. A leverage play tight-end from the same game is the Football Team’s Logan Thomas. In games he’s started, he averages an elite 20.9-percent Air Yards Share (31.3-percent in Week 12). He makes a great low-rostered pairing with Taylor Heinicke with the Raiders having been had by opposing tight ends, ranking No. 5 in aFPA.

Pick your poison. Chargers-Bengals is the highest scoring game on the slate with two defenses susceptible to the running back in different ways: one on the ground, one in the air. Both running backs have the opposite team’s kryptonite. Austin Ekeler has been on fire, accumulating 14.22 points in the air over the last five games and 17.9 over the previous three. As for Joe Mixon, he is the third-highest scoring running back on the slate, just two points less per game than Ekeler.

Jonathan Taylor should continue his rampage on the ground. Look for the Colts to get Michael Pittman more involved as we close in on the playoffs. With the Colts in comeback mode, Brevin Jordan against one of the worst secondaries facing tight ends in 2021 is an appetizing play as he forced Jordan Akins to the inactive list. Pharaoh Brown is still the lead tight end, but he’s obviously there to block. I’m predicting over 30 yards and a touchdown to the rookie. Nico Collins has a similar outlook. 

Terry McLaurin makes his season debut on the Air Yards Value Index. He is coming off a game where he failed to crest double digit fantasy points against a exploitable Seattle secondary. While his matchup this week against the Raiders is less appealing, McLaurin should continue to see copious volume in Washington’s offense. He is averaging 111 Air Yards on the season and is tops in the league in Air Yards Share.

Marvin Jones hasn’t posted more than double digits fantasy points since Week 6 when he finished as the WR9 posting 23 fantasy points. However he has averaged over 6 targets per game and seen at least 50 Air Yards per game since this time. With the Jaguars likely playing catchup against a high powered Ram offense, Jones makes for a great run-back option in Week 13 if you are stacking Rams in your tournament lineup.

As heavy favorites at expensive salaries (over 16K for the stack), the Matthew Stafford-Cooer Kupp pair should go under-rostered relative to upside. The Rams are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at over 30 points. Working in our favor is the fact that this a team that doesn’t take their foot off the gas when winning.

Tua Tagovailoa isn’t throwing as deep as Matthew Stafford, only 6.6 (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Air Yards per Attempt, but is completing passes at an elite level. His 75.3-percent True Completion Percentage ranks No. 2, while he’s also top five in completion percentage in the redzone, clean pockets, and off play action. With nearly a $1K price jump over the last two weeks, Jaylen Waddle looks like an excellent Buy High opportunity this week as other fantasy gamers balk at the increase.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Not any cash plays in the index but a handful of tournament pivots off of popular cash game plays. Josh Jacobs for Elijah Mitchell or Myles Gaskin for Jamaal Williams could make sense in tournaments, especially large field ones where looking to be different.

Cam Newton and Robby Anderson are BACK. Anderson has averaged 6 targets and 4.5 receptions on a 20-percent Target Share in his last two games without Sam Darnold. Also, the matchup is prime for Anderson because Miami ranks last in receiving yards and receptions allowed. The probability of Anderson hitting the OVER is strong when considering his current trajectory in the Carolina offense in conjunction with the leaky Miami defense.

Take the OVER on Trevor Lawrence in a bounce back game against Atlanta. Lawrence hit the UNDER on this line in his past three games against Buffalo, Indianapolis and San Francisco, but Atlanta’s defense is one of the friendliest to opposing quarterbacks, ranking dead last in quarterback pressures and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage. As a result, Lawrence will not be hamstrung by his dreadful 29.4-percent (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage.

You can mix Miles Sanders into Giants-Eagles game stacks after he registered a season-high in carries with his second-most red zone attempts, returning from his first game since getting injured. His pricing alone makes for a sexy play, not to mention the Giants rank No. 28 against the running back. He is just $100 above Chuba Hubbard and $200 above Giovani Bernard and Mike Davis. 

The Bucs have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to only six rushing touchdowns on the year. The Carson Wentz-Michael Pittman connection will be alive and well. Not only does Pittman have 81 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) targets, he also has 11 (No. 16) red zone targets and 516 (No. 11) Completed Air Yards. Regardless of who is in coverage, Pittman is going to eat.