DFS

Veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is set for big opportunity in pivotal division matchup today against the Patriots. The Bills will be without both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, resulting in a target void that Sanders will have to fill on team that runs 38.4 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays Per Game. And the icing on the cake for this line is that Sanders has a 16.2 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance, demonstrating that he will hit this line in the first half with his presumed spike in volume.

The theme of the picks thus far has been COVID-19/injury induced opportunity. Another prime example of this is the Damien Harris rushing line on Underdog Fantasy. The Patriots will be without Rhamondre Stevenson and potentially Brandon Bolden, leaving Harris with the lion’s share of carries against a Buffalo team that has allowed 170 rushing yards per game in the last three games. Harris torched the Bills in Week 13 with 111 yards on 10 carries and while his efficiency will certainly regress, his opportunity will boom on a team with 28.4 (No. 8) Team Run Plays Per Game.

Ladies and gentleman, through 15 weeks of the NFL season I present to you your Air Yards leader, Justin Jefferson. He also leads the league in Air Yards Share as he has been THE Vikings passing game sans Adam Thielen. He is also only 79 Unrealized Air Yards away from leading the league in this category. Jefferson is an elite triple crown contender in all things Air Yards. Even with Thielen looking like he will return this week, the Jefferson airplane is already at Mach 5 and gaining speed.

Emmanuel Sanders appears to be the last man standing after both Cole Beasley and the intriguing Gabriel Davis were ruled out of this week’s game against the Patriots with COVID-19. Assuming Sanders is back at full health, he should have no issue seeing boom-or-bust downfield targets from Josh Allen. He should be someone you want exposure to in tournaments.

Two weeks of rest (a missed week due to injury and a bye week) seemed to be all that was needed for Jalen Hurts to return from an ankle sprain unscathed. With more opportunities on offense and another week removed from injury, he should be deployed even more as a rusher. Despite ranking dead last in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, the Giants have also had trouble on the ground. Hurts’ 2.3 Red Zone Carries Per Game has led to his league leading 10 Rushing Touchdowns. Giddyup!

Dallas Goedert provides a nice value/ceiling combo at $5,100. The versatile tight end has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in back to back games for the Eagles. In Weeks 13 and 15, Goedert saw Target Shares of 27-percent and 35-percent (Week 14 was a bye). While you can run Hurts naked (without a pairing), Goedert looks to be the preferred stacking option with Hurts.

A savvy way to attack this slate for daily fantasy football tournaments is stacking Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase against the burnable Ravens secondary. With recent inconsistencies and big days from his teammates, Chase should go underplayed this week which presents an appealing leverage opportunity for DFS tournaments. Another tactic involves playing the less popular side of the biggest shooutout. This week that’s Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson who is simply seeing too much volume to be worried about CB matchups.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Similar to last week, this is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. Najee Harris is a good tournament play, Josh Jacobs is one of the better overall plays too. In cash games, many are going to look for the fill-ins for inactive running backs such as Alexander Mattison, Ronald Jones, and Justin Jackson as well..
 

Offseason best ball debates raged on about whether maximizing advancement or ‘super-teams’ was a stronger strategy. While this divide played out on the margins, it is front and centre in playoff best ball. The inclusion of two first round byes adds a layer complication to the strategy. If you stack both bye-teams you are virtually drawing dead to advance past round one, with even one bye-stack hurting your odds.

In general, I think 1QB or 2QB builds are viable. If your quarterback’s team is unlikely to receive a bye, you are likely reliant on them playing four games to win the tournament anyhow. Given you likely drafted three of his skill players, I think it is reasonable to say your team is so reliant on him having strong fantasy production each game anyhow, pairing him is redundant. However, it comes down to a cost, benefit analysis.

D.J. Moore has averaged almost 15.0 Fantasy Points Per Game since Cam Newton’s return as starter. He is the primary option for Carolina to move the ball in the passing game and has not yet hit his ceiling as he is seeing at least seven targets per game and is averaging over 100 Air Yards the past three weeks. Moore, even against a tough Buffalo secondary should find himself on your roster regardless of format.

Michael Gallup squeezes onto the list again this week in favor of an uninspiring Tim Patrick (DK: $4,500). He simply has more upside and needs to be mentioned. Gallup was a big play away last week from a huge fantasy day, and is averaging 109 Air Yards over the past four games. His floor during this time has been a respectable 12.65 fantasy points. The boom week is coming. You have been placed on notice.

Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID-19 list, priming Mike Gesicki to smash the OVER on his Underdog Fantasy line this weekend. Gesicki already sees 6.8 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Targets Per Game and he will surely benefit from Waddle’s vacated 8.9 Targets Per Game. Consequently, Gesicki’s 25.3-percent (No. 5) Air Yards Share has no where to go but up. He has hit 46 receiving yards in eight out of thirteen games this season and he’ll certainly hit the OVER against the Jets on Sunday.

Everyone has the Bills projected to crush the Panthers today and that can make it tempting to take the OVER on this line. However, Stefon Diggs will find it difficult to produce against one of the leagues best cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore. A quick glance at Gilmore’s player page on PlayerProfiler.com shows that he has allowed only 2 receptions since joining the Panthers in Week 10. Diggs has hit the OVER on this line in four out of 13 games this season. Now is the time to hit the UNDER.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. The guys that are the best values in this index have the touchdown scoring upside but also have the upside of putting up zero points. Myles Gaskin is the only player on the list that has a trustworthy floor, the others have multiple touchdown upside but also have zero point downside.
 

George Kittle will be massive chalk, but has broken the slate in back-to-back weeks. His 40-percent Target Share in Weeks 13 and 14 are likely an outlier, but his normal Target Share outside of those weeks was still a healthy 21-percent. I believe this game is the biggest blowout on the slate and would be open to running some three-plus player stacks on the 49ers side of the ball.

Regardless if Chase Edmonds is activated from IR, James Conner is still very much in play. The Cardinals have a slate-high 30-point implied team total and some of that should be expected to be earned on the ground. The Lions rank No. 10 or worse in Rushing Yards Allowed (135/gm/avg), Rushing TD Percentage (41-percent), and aFPA (No. 4). He makes for a nice one-off too if you’re fading Kyler Murray in a lineup or two.