Trading in fantasy football is an important way to make your team better. However, it is also the only controllable way to make other teams worse. In theory, great fantasy football trades optimize the rosters of both teams involved, leaving non-trading teams behind. This series will help to provide some useful tips on players to “buy” and “sell” in trades. It will also provide the proper context to determine when trading for or trading away a specific player makes sense for your squad. For a player to be involved in a trade, there needs to be a market for that player. Unlike your typical “trade for” and “trade away” articles that are geared toward taking advantage of less-informed league mates, this series will consider team context to determine whether you should buy or sell a popular player in the trade market.
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Week 3 Fantasy Football Trade Advice
On the block: WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Reason to Buy: Air Yards!
Through the first two weeks of the season, Brian Thomas Jr. is sixth among all receivers with 258 air yards. Unfortunately, Thomas has failed to capitalize on many of these air yards, posting only 60 yards receiving. He is averaging less than double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring. While the fantasy points have not been there, the underlying air yards suggest that better days are ahead. The receivers flanking Thomas in this metric include the likes of Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Mike Evans, and Rome Odunze. Four out of these five receivers are among the top 12 wide receivers in overall fantasy points at the receiver position. It is a matter of when, not if, that Brian Thomas starts scoring week-winning fantasy points. If you are a team looking for wide receiver help, Air Yards suggest that Thomas is a true buy-low. If you need a receiver and can part with a running back like James Cook or Chuba Hubbard for Brian Thomas, that deal could look silly once these air yards start to be realized.
Reason to Sell: Vibes
One receiver that actually has more air yards on the season compared to Brian Thomas is Tyquan Thornton. Like all advanced metrics, air yards needs context to be fully understood. Unfortunately, the context surrounding Thomas and the Jaguars presents some red flags. Head coach Liam Coen hinted at a previously undisclosed wrist injury. In addition, rookie Travis Hunter‘s receiving role may continue to grow, and instead of trailing Thomas by five targets on the season, he could pull even or overtake him. Thomas has also struggled with drops thus far, and in general has failed to have any great fantasy success when it is Trevor Lawrence throwing him the football. If the vibes aren’t something you are digging in Jacksonville with Brian Thomas, you could look to sell the receiver for close to draft day value. Perhaps pivoting to another potential buy-low candidate in Drake London may make you feel better in the long run.
On the block: RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys
Reason to Buy: Opportunity is King
We are entering Week 3 of the NFL season, and Javonte Williams is the RB3 overall. Much of that is due to the three touchdowns Williams has scored over three weeks. However, Williams is in the top ten among all running backs in both carries and targets. He is getting bell cow usage for one of the best offenses in the league. With rookie Jaydon Blue a weekly inactive, Williams’ hold on this bell cow role is going nowhere. If you need some wins, you can likely get Williams for a failure to launch rookie running back like Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, or RJ Harvey.
Reason to Sell: Touchdown regression
As mentioned, Javonte Williams has three touchdowns through two games. This pace is unsustainable. While his opportunities lock Williams into a nice RB2 floor, he will need to score touchdowns to hit the 20-point-per-game ceiling he has displayed thus far. He is creating only 2.88 yards per touch, which places him 31st among all running backs. He needs these touchdowns to hit his ceiling because the efficiency for big chunk plays doesn’t seem to be there. If you are in need of receiver help and can sell Williams for a struggling veteran like Chris Olave or Jerry Jeudy, this may be a good trade once the touchdowns dry up for Williams.
On the block: RB J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos
Reason to buy: He’s scoring fantasy points
Similar to Williams, J.K. Dobbins is off to a hot start with his new team. As the lead back of the Broncos, Dobbins is currently the RB13 on the season. Dobbins has also scored a touchdown in each game. While he doesn’t see a bell cow role in this Sean Payton offense, with only a 52.7% snap share, Dobbins makes up for this lack of opportunity with efficiency, posting a +25.1 (sixth among qualified running backs) Production Premium. Dobbins should continue to see some work as the season progresses, as Sean Payton typically utilizes multiple backs in his offense. If you need a running back and can get Dobbins for a hot wide receiver like Keenan Allen or Michael Pittman, it would be a great deal to make.
Reason to sell: RJ Harvey is inevitable
RJ Harvey, much like his running back draft classmates, has underachieved thus far this season. However, rookie running backs are typically back-weighted bets in fantasy football who often secure league-winning opportunities as the season progresses. Harvey’s time will likely come this season, and when it does, it will be during the fantasy playoff weeks when the stakes are highest. If Harvey is able to wrestle opportunities away from Dobbins, the veteran may be bench fodder once the fantasy playoffs roll around. If you are looking to get ahead of the inevitability of rookie running backs, Dobbins now makes sense. Trading him for a struggling wide receiver like Terry McLaurin or teammate Courtland Sutton is something to explore.
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