Week 10 MNF Showdown: Commanders vs Eagles

by Dookie Hogue · Betting & Props

When the schedule was originally released, this was to be the game Carson Wentz would face his former team. However, after a finger injury, Wentz has been replaced with fan-favorite Taylor Heinicke. Though Heinicke is 2-1 in his starts this season, a tough opponent awaits. The Eagles are looking to keep their perfect season intact as they enter the week as double-digit home favorites for a second consecutive week. Without further ado, let’s dig in for the Week 10 MNF Showdown between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles!

Commanders vs Eagles Odds:
Eagles -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under 43.5 (-114/106)
Moneyline Eagles -510/Commanders +390

The Commanders

ODU journeyman Taylor Heinicke will have a tough task facing an undefeated Eagles team as road dogs. Since taking over for oft-injured Carson Wentz (finger) in Week 7, Heinicke has logged finishes of QB8, QB13, and QB15. I’m expecting a worse finish for Heinicke in this tough spot though. The Eagles’ defense has been especially stout against opposing quarterbacks holding them to a meager 9.9 fantasy points per game. Per PFF, Heinicke leads the league in turn-over-worthy throws since replacing Wentz. Consider Heinicke a fade-able QB2 against this buzz-saw defense.

Rushing and Receiving

With J.D. McKissic sidelined, Antonio Gibson saw his highest Snap Share since Week 2 (58-percent). McKissic is expected to remain sidelined (neck) after missing another practice Friday. Gibson creeps into RB2 territory with his pass-game chops and no McKissic. Though Brian Robinson will get some early-down work, he’s finished as RB20 or better just once this season. The Eagles are also allowing the No. 3 lowest Rushing Attempts as opposing offenses are being forced to abandon the run.

Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel have benefited from the change under center. With Heinicke at the helm, McLaurin and Samuel have led the team in Targets (8.3 and 5.3 respective averages) and Target Share (28.8-percent and 17.9-percent respectively). They’re on the fantasy radar as single-game DFS options while the Eagles allow the No. 4 most Targets to enemy receivers.

The Eagles

Jalen Hurts has been fire. He’s posted QB4 or better finishes in five of eight games. Hurts has tossed the No. 5 most Passing Touchdowns and attempted the No. 2 most Rushes (amongst qualified quarterbacks). Nothing has stopped him so far, and I wouldn’t expect that to change against a Commander’s defense that has allowed the No. 2 most Passing Touchdowns. Hurts is ready to roll as a top-tier QB1 with an immense ceiling.

Rushing and Receiving

The backfield in Philadelphia is less of a committee than you probably think. Only one time this season has a running back not named Miles Sanders seen a Snap Share over 30-percent. In fact, Sanders has seen most of the team’s snaps at a healthy 62-percent clip. Even better, Sanders has earned a solid 68-percent Opportunity Share (No. 12 best at the position). So he’s seeing snaps and earning opportunities when on the field. Sanders has also scored in back-to-back games.

A.J. Brown Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The Eagles’ target pecking order is as follows: A.J. Brown (48), DeVonta Smith (43), and Dallas Goedert (40). Brown has earned an elite 28.6-percent Target Share (No. 11) and a 43-percent Air Yard Share (No. 3). It’s no surprise by this elite usage that he leads the league with six Receiving Touchdowns. Brown is an auto-start WR1 every week, especially as double-digit home favorites.

Smith and Goedert round out the ancillary targets for the team. While both players have had ceiling performances, their outlook is less predictable because of the team’s hierarchy. My lean is to roll with Goedert again after his recent success. While I don’t like chasing points, Goedert has been a weekly TE1. The Eagles rank No. 1 in Offensive Success Rate when targeting his position. As for Smith, he’s a ceiling WR3/4 and an intriguing flex option in any one-game DFS slates.

Score Prediction: Eagles 31 Commanders 20