NFL Week 16 Underdog Pick ‘Ems

by Ahaan Rungta · Betting & Props

This is NFL Week 16 Underdog Pick ‘Ems! This is your spot to find the best-value weekly spots to pick whether players will go higher or lower than their projection. As usual, if you want weekly audio content for pick ‘ems, including getting in early on some lines that will move early in the week, check out the Pick ‘Em Power Hour every Wednesday and Friday with us hosts, Ahaan S. Rungta (@AhaanRungta) and Trevor Tipton (@FFCULater).

The team is coming off another winner last week as Trevor’s two-pick entry spanning Saturday and Sunday turned green with very few sweats involved.

If you would like to tail our plays or create your own, join Underdog today with promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100% deposit match up to $100 USD upon entry. Here are our picks for Week 16.

Ahaan’s Week 16 Picks

Josh Allen (BUF) HIGHER Than 22.5 Pass Completions
Stefon Diggs (BUF) HIGHER Than 6.0 Receptions

The Chargers have fired head coach Brandon Staley, but that will not make their defense suddenly competent. They rank No. 27 in drop back EPA per play and have allowed eight of their 14 opposing starting quarterbacks have cleared this projection, including Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, and Jordan Love. On the season, Josh Allen has cleared this projection in eight of his 14 games.

The only reason we are getting a buy-low is because of a season-low seven completions in his last game where Buffalo simply ran the ball down the throats of Dallas to win in a blowout. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady said the gameplan will always be pass-first. In Week 16, if the Bills cook up another blowout, it will likely be because Allen is finding success through the air.

The best candidate to stack with Allen is his clear No. 1 option Stefon Diggs, who simply has no stopping force to face in the Chargers secondary. He has recorded at least six receptions in ten of his 14 games and has earned at least 11 targets in eight games this season.

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) HIGHER Than 52.5 Receiving Yards

If there was ever a spot for a revenge narrative in the NFL actually coming to fruition, it would be in this dreamy matchup for Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson who started his career in Detroit. Since coming off their Bye in Week 10, the Lions pass defense ranks No. 30 in dropback EPA per play allowed. In that span, they have allowed the No. 15-highest yards per reception to tight ends.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

Although quarterback Nick Mullens does not jump off the page as someone to put all your monetary faith in, we can rely on him to feed his tight ends. Entering this season, his 24.5-percent target share to tight ends since 2018 ranked him No. 12 among all quarterbacks targeting the tight end with at least 100 targets to the position. In Mullens’ debut start for Minnesota, Hockenson recorded 63 receiving yards on seven targets. We should see more of the same in a projected competitive, indoor game against the team that drafted him.

Trevor’s Week 16 Picks

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) Higher 5.0 Receptions 

Garrett Wilson, the New York Jets’ standout wide receiver, is poised to catch a lot of passes from Trevor Sieman this week. The Jets get the gift of facing the Commanders who currently are at the bottom of the NFL in pass defense. This is one of those situations where it is best to take the gift that keeps on giving: the Washington Commanders pass defense. 

Despite inconsistent quarterback play, Wilson has continued to deliver week in and week out. Wilson is currently averaging 10.2 targets and 5.8 receptions while having a 25-percent target share. If we take away the Denver game 10 weeks ago, Wilson has exceeded 5.5 receptions in six of his last nine games and has a 6.1 receptions/game average.

The Washington Commanders defense has struggled this season. They have allowed the No. 3 most passing yards per game (276.5) in the league. This weakness in their secondary provides an opportunity for Wilson to exploit and rack up receptions. With his speed and route-running ability, Wilson should have no problem finding open space and making plays against the Commanders defense.

The Commanders have allowed multiple top playmakers to have six plus catches a game. Kupp, Lockett, Metcalf, even Smith-Schuster and Drake London who have both struggled with their own quarterback play this season, have all posted six catches against Washington. 

Curtis Samuel (WAS) Higher 3.5 Receptions 

In his last game against the Los Angeles Rams, Samuel had a stellar performance, catching five passes for 41 yards and two touchdowns. This game showcased his ability to make an impact on the field and contribute to the Commanders’ offense. With this momentum, Samuel is more than capable of continuing his success against the Jets.

The New York Jets defense has been inconsistent this season, and their secondary has struggled to limit wide receiver receptions. This weakness in their defense provides an opportunity for Samuel to exploit and rack up receptions. With his speed and route-running ability, Samuel should have no problem finding open space and making plays.

Recommended: 0.50u on the two-pick entry

The Washington Commanders’ offensive scheme has been utilizing Samuel in various ways, allowing him to showcase his versatility as a receiver. Samuel has been averaging 4.6 receptions on 6.5 targets a game during this most recent ten-game stretch. Sam Howell has struggled the last two games and was even pulled from the game for Jacoby Brissett. This did not slow Samuel down. Samuel has exceeded 3.5 receptions in seven of his last eight games after a loss (5.0 receptions/game average). Samuel has the No. 2 best target share on the team. Terry McLaurin will see a lot of Sauce Gardner. As a result, this will give even more opportunities to Samuel.