NFL Best Bets Week 11 | NFL Picks on BetOpenly

by Ahaan Rungta and TREVOR TIPTON · Betting & Props

Welcome back to NFL Best Bets Week 11. Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 10, our picks went for a 4-0 sweep, all with better prices than any sportsbook. This week we are back again with four best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton with odds that you can only get at BetOpenly.

As a reminder, BetOpenly has launched peer-to-peer player props. You now can also get better odds than a traditional sports book. When you see a player prop for -110 at another sportsbook, you will generally see that prop at BetOpenly for +108 to +100. That is massive savings and a value you cannot get anywhere else.

If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly, and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season

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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads) but also to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail them with discipline. Additionally, it’s important to stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.

Ahaan’s Week 11 Picks

Los Angeles Rams to Win (+104)

The Rams have gone through a lot this season, especially with injuries. However, the books are still respecting them in this spot for good reason. Seattle is 6-3 and in serious contention for the NFC West alongside the 49ers who have the same record. Meanwhile, the Rams are looking to retool soon with their 3-6 record, and quarterback Matthew Stafford hasn’t been fully healthy. Yet, the Rams are just one-point underdogs. Vegas believes in Stafford and Sean McVay, and rightfully so.

Even though Seattle’s defense has been phenomenal all season long, their offense has started to show some deficiencies. They now rank No. 17 in pass block win rate. This is a bad sign against a Rams defense that is only No. 17 in pass rush win rate but does still possess the best single pass-rushing threat in NFL history, Aaron Donald.

Geno Smith

Seattle quarterback Geno Smith ranks No. 21 in adjusted EPA per play and No. 24 in accuracy rating. His splits by coverage are alarming. He ranks No. 33 in passer rating and No. 22 in accuracy rating against zone. This is primarily what the Rams run. McVay’s group ranks No. 6 in zone coverage rate this season. To add to the bad news for Seattle, wide receiver Tyler Lockett did not practice on Wednesday and guard Damien Lewis remains questionable. This is not ideal for the team with the one-week rest disadvantage.

To top it all off, this game fits a staggering against-the-spread system in the NFL. Since 2020, home underdogs coming off a loss in their previous game are 34-7-3 against the spread when they face a team with a winning record coming off a win in their previous week. This system is also on a 15-1-0 run and is active on Rams +1 at the moment. Instead of paying juice to buy a point, let’s instead ask McVay to sweep the season series against Pete Carroll, a matchup he has owned in the past. McVay is 10-4 against the spread in his career against Carroll and has covered in six straight. This streak will continue in Week 11. The moneyline is now sitting around -105 on most books. On BetOpenly, you can get them at plus-money.

Calvin Ridley (JAX) Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Last week, we backed the Jaguars’ slot receiver Christian Kirk in a soft matchup against the 49ers’ slot-porous secondary. Kirk came through for us and was the leading receiver for Jacksonville, while Ridley took a back seat and posted just 20 receiving yards on a season-low 27 air yards. It’s time for a bounce back against a Titans defense that has been a pass-funnel group all year long. Over the last three weeks, following the trade of safety Kevin Byard, Tenneesse has surrendered 55 and 75 receiving yards to Drake London and Khadarel Hodge, respectively, 90 receiving yards to Diontae Johnson, and 143 receiving yards to Mike Evans.

No. 1 options on the outside continue to have their way in this matchup. We should expect more of the same for Ridley. Ridley has cleared this line in only three games so far but has posted at least seven targets in six of his nine games and at least 70 air yards in seven games. On books, you have to pay up to 15 cents of juice to take either side of this line, but on BetOpenly, you can get it at even-money.

Trevor’s Week 11 Picks

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

The San Francisco 49ers head into their Week 11 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with high hopes after a dominating performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is poised for a breakout performance. Aiyuk has been a consistent contributor for the 49ers this season, averaging 17.7 yards per catch and ranking among the team’s top targets. This week, he gets the Buccaneers who run one of the highest zone rates in the league. Aiyuk’s prop of 70.5 receiving yards is too low for one of the best matchups this weekend. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense has struggled against wide receivers this season as they allow an average of 196.7 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, ranking No. 31 in the NFL. This vulnerability provides Aiyuk with an opportunity to exploit the Buccaneers’ secondary and rack up significant receiving yards. The Buccaneers deploy a massive amount of zone defense – 76.8-percent of the time to be precise. Do you know what defense Brock Purdy and Aiyuk have been absolutely smashing this season? Zone coverage. The Houston Texans just had Noah Brown, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell all go for over 100 yards against this same defense. 

Brock Purdy is also leading the NFL in Passer rating at 109.9. The 49ers had played three straight games with teams coming off their bye before their matchup last week against the Jaguars. The Buccaneers continued to get beat through the air because they also love to blitz. They are currently the NFLs No. 3 highest blitz rate team in the NFL. Purdy has been stellar against the blitz this season, and Aiyuk is one of his favorite targets when under pressure. The 49ers also have one of the best pass block matchups this week against this Tampa Bay front. Aiyuk is leading the NFL in yards per route at 17.8 and 12.3 yards per target.

D’Andre Swift (PHI) Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (+108)

Monday Night Football brings us a Super Bowl rematch of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles. All eyes are on dynamic running back D’Andre Swift. A rising star in the NFL, Swift is poised for a standout performance against the Chiefs, and there are compelling reasons as to why we believe he will surpass the 13.5 rushing attempts mark. In this article, we’ll explore the factors contributing to Swift’s potential for a high volume of carries and why fantasy football managers and sports bettors should take note.

D’Andre Swift Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Philadelphia’s offensive coordinator Brian Johnson is likely to devise a game plan that exploits the Chiefs’ defensive vulnerabilities. The Chiefs have struggled against the run this season, and with Swift’s versatile skill set, he can be a potent weapon both as a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield. The Chiefs are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season to running backs. This is tied for No. 2 worst in the NFL. Only the Broncos are giving up more yards per carry. Swift has managed, since his breakout game in Week 2, to surpass this line every week except one. 

D’Andre Swift

D’Andre Swift is not just a traditional between-the-tackles runner. He is a multi-dimensional threat. His ability to break tackles, find running lanes, and make defenders miss in open space makes him a valuable asset for the Eagles’ offense. Swift is currently No. 7 in the NFL in rushing yards and No. 8 in rushing attempts despite not being used in Week 1. If we remove Week 1, Swift is No. 3 in the NFL in rushing attempts.

The Eagles will prefer to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands, and Swift will be a major factor in helping them force this game script Monday night. This line is currently -110 at most sportsbooks. Take advantage on BetOpenly while you still can!