DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Targets for Week 16

by Matthew Gajewski ·
mike-gesicki-fantasy-football

Now 15 weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 16, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 16 Main Slate.

Kyler Murray ($6,100) – Arizona Cardinals

Already throwing the ball 482 times this season, No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks, Kyler Murray finally opened up on the ground last week. Rushing eight times for 53 yards, his usage as a runner brings an immense ceiling for DFS purposes. On the year, he ranks top three in most rushing statistics, including second overall with 504 rushing yards.

Murray should also benefit from a matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, a game totaled at 51-points. Seattle ranks 29th in passing yards allowed per game (271), pointing to a high scoring affair. The Seahawks have allowed at least 275 passing yards to Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff and Kyle Allen over their last three games. With Murray finally showing his dual threat ability, he makes a solid contrarian play here.

Joe Mixon ($6,100) – Cincinnati Bengals

Seeing awesome usage of late, Joe Mixon ranks only behind Christian McCaffrey in touches per game (24.5) since Cincinnati’s bye week. Mixon has at least 100 yards rushing in four of his last six contests, with at least 150 in his last two. From an efficiency perspective, he holds a 32.7-percent (No. 3) Juke Rate and 434 (No. 7) Yards Created.


Check out Joe Mixon on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Mixon draws a dream Week 16 matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who rank 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (140.9). Last week, this Miami defense allowed Saquon Barkley for rush for 112 yards after Barkley hadn’t eclipsed 100 yards since Week 2. With matchup and volume working in his favor, Mixon deserves heavy exposure in tournaments this weekend.

Alvin Kamara ($7,500) – New Orleans Saints

An up-and-down player of late, Alvin Kamara hasn’t topped 100 total yards since Week 12. However, he continues to see volume in this New Orleans offense with at least 17 touches in back-to-back weeks. Hyper-active as a receiver, he still has at least five targets in eight straight weeks. He has retained his efficiency throughout 2019, pointing to a breakout performance in the coming weeks. His 32.0-percent Juke Rate ranks fourth in the league.

The Saints draw the Tennessee Titans in a game projected to pass 50 total points. The Titans play decent run defense, but have showed cracks in recent weeks. Carlos Hyde rushed for 104 yards in this matchup last week, creating potential avenues for Kamara to succeed here. Likely to draw little ownership, Kamara makes a solid GPP target in Week 16.

Courtland Sutton ($6,200) – Denver Broncos

Finally recording his first-ten target game of the season, Courtland Sutton continues his quiet breakout 2019 campaign. On the season, Sutton holds a 40-percent Air Yards share and a 25.5-percent (No. 13) Target Share. Also ranking sixth among qualified wide receivers with a +38.9-percent Target Premium, he provides one of the most efficient targets in all of football.

Courtland Sutton Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The Broncos face a dismal Detroit Lions secondary that allows 288.6 passing yards per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. While Drew Lock remains a concern moving forward, Sutton should find openings in this matchup. With a strong target share and awesome matchup, he deserves a long looks in tournaments.

Curtis Samuel ($4,500) – Carolina Panthers

Despite under-performing for much of 2019, Curtis Samuel continues to see solid volume. On the year, he has 97 targets and 1,411 total Air Yards. While the box score statistics continue to elude Samuel, he performs well from an efficiency perspective. His 1.83 (No. 18) Target Separation mark will provide Will Grier easy pitch-and-catch opportunities.

Samuel draws a winnable matchup this week against the Colts secondary. Indianapolis allowed at least 300 yards passing to Jameis Winston and Drew Brees in back-to-back weeks, providing Carolina a recipe for success. With Grier hopefully providing a target upgrade to the entire offense, Samuel is a sneaky GPP play in Week 16.

Chris Conley ($4,300) – Jacksonville Jaguars

Despite the questionable status of D.J. Chark, Chris Conley looks likely to retain his role in Jacksonville’s offense this week. Out-performing expectations of late, he looks to have moved ahead of Dede Westbrook in Jacksonville’s target pecking order. Last week, he led Jacksonville with eight targets, while Westbrook only saw four. Also leading the team in Air Yards sans Chark, Conley is the pass catcher to target in this offense moving forward.

Conley should also benefit from a matchup against the Falcons this weekend. Atlanta ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (253.7). This game also brings a 46.5-point game total, suggesting a tightly contested, high-scoring affair. Playing an increased role in Jacksonville’s offense, Conley is a cheap dart throw worth considering this weekend.

Mike Gesicki ($3,600) – Miami Dolphins

Simply too cheap for his price, Mike Gesicki averages 6.4 targets per game since Week 9. In that span, he has received at least five targets in each individual contest. The Dolphins also began using him near the end zone. With five red zone target in his last four games, he brings increased scoring equity this week against the Bengals.

From a matchup perspective, the Bengals remain decent in tight end defense. They haven’t allowed a tight end over 30 yards receiving in four weeks, but they faced the likes of Vance McDonald, Ryan Griffin, Ricky Seals-Jones and Matt LaCosse in that span. Far more involved offensively, Gesicki presents a cheap way to attack the tight end position.