Dynasty Market Movers – Week 3 Report

by Steve Smith · Dynasty Leagues

Week 3 in the NFL brought continued rookie quarterback struggles. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson added to their interception totals for a combined 14 through three games (seven each). Justin Fields was sacked nine times and completed just six of 20 pass attempts in his first pro start. Better days are ahead for these young, talented signal callers. Savvy dynasty managers will explore this  window to potentially buy at value.

The Week 3 edition of Dynasty Market Movers has arrived, enjoy!


Stock Trending Up

James Robinson – RB Jacksonville Jaguars

In the first two weeks, James Robinson got off to a slow start in the fantasy points department. However, the advanced stats and metrics point to a positive trend. Through three contests, Robinson has 15 (No. 9 among qualified running backs) targets, a 57.6-percent (No. 8) Route Participation rate, and a 13.2-percent (No. 12) Target Share. With Travis Etienne out for the year, JRob is Urban Meyer’s preferred receiving weapon out of the backfield.

Robinson carried the ball 15 times for 134 total yards and a touchdown versus the Cardinals in Week 3. He was a perfect six for six as a receiver. This rewarded fantasy managers with an RB4 performance (25.4 fantasy points) on the week. He moves up six spots on the dynasty rankings to RB23.

Mike Williams – WR Los Angeles Chargers

The words “reliable weekly fantasy starter” have not often been associated with Mike Williams. Thus far, the 2021 weekly fantasy point totals for the fifth year wideout read: 22.2 (WR14), 22.1 (WR10), and 33.2 (WR1). His 31 (No. 6) targets have him second on the team, just two behind perennial target hog Keenan Allen.

The new Chargers coaching staff is deploying Williams differently; they see him as a “power forward.” In 2021, he’s averaged 9.5 (No. 28) yards per target, which is a significant change from the 16 that he’s averaged over the past three seasons. No longer just a deep threat, Williams gains 12.57 Lifetime Value points to move up six spots to WR26.

Odell Beckham – WR Cleveland Browns

In his first action since a season ending ACL tear in Week 7 of 2020, Odell Beckham played 64.6-percent of snaps, ran 29 routes, and drew a team-high nine targets. He caught five passes for 77 scoreless yards.

Beckham had a reputable 13.7 fantasy point (WR29) debut in Cleveland’s mauling of the Chicago Bears. It could have been bigger day, as evidenced by 76 Unrealized Air Yards. Cleveland’s WR1 saw an impressive 31-percent (No. 6) Target Share with a 16.6 Average Target Distance. OBJ leaps eight spots to WR36. Don’t be surprised if/when the veteran’s stock climbs higher.

Dawson Knox – TE Buffalo Bills

Dawson Knox used his 109 (86th-percentile) Speed Score and 11.39 (73rd-percentile) Agility Score to gain 12.57 Lifetime Value points; the most of any tight end on the dynasty rankings this week. Through Week 3, Knox has run 73 (No. 11) routes and played an average of 70.6-percent of snaps in a potent Buffalo Bills offense.

The former Ole Miss Rebel, posted a season best performance versus Washington in Week 3. He caught four of five targets for 49 yards and a TD. After three match-ups, Knox currently sits at TE8 in Fantasy Points Per Game. The third year pro is ascending, moving nine spots to TE22.

More notable players with stocks trending up this week: Josh Allen, Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss, Michael Pittman, Tim Patrick, Tyler Conklin

Stock Trending Down

Devin Singletary – RB Buffalo Bills

Devin Singletary has been losing his grasp on the Bills backfield since Zack Moss returned in Week 2. The Week 3 matchup versus the WFT didn’t help matters. Singletary carried the ball 11 times and caught one of two targets for 26 total yards. He scored 3.6 fantasy points (RB51). Yikes.

Devin Singletary 2021 Game Logs

Singletary was out-snapped 51.3-percent to 46.1-percent by Moss in Week 3. That’s not where the differences end. Since Week 2, Moss has outscored him by 12.8 fantasy points and has two more red zone carries. Singletary has been inferior to Moss in Juke Rate (12.2 to 30.8-percent), Evaded Tackles (4 to 8). He has 1.66 Yards Created Per Touch to Moss’ 3.54. Rightfully so, the RB dynasty values in the Bills’ backfield flip after Week 3. Moss rises five spots to RB38, while Singletary slips to RB42.

Kenyan Drake – RB Las Vegas Raiders

With Josh Jacobs out for a second consecutive game, Kenyan Drake took a backseat to Peyton Barber in Week 3. Playing 45-percent of snaps (similar to his Week 1 usage) versus the Miami Dolphins, Drake saw eight carries for 24 yards and caught three of six targets for 57 total yards.

Drake has 13 (No. 7) receptions on 17 (No. 3) targets for 138 (No. 5) receiving yards on the season. This has equated to 10.4 (No. 35) Fantasy Points Per Game. Unfortunately, Drake’s inefficient 2.1 (No. 64) True Yards Per Carry rate will likely keep him relegated to his Flex-worthy pass catching role. Hope for the odd TD. Losing the most RB Lifetime Value points this week (-11.34), it’s stock down to RB47 (-6 spots).

Allen Robinson – WR Chicago Bears

Allen Robinson is off to a disappointing start to the 2021 season. Regardless of matchups, his quarterbacks have delivered a 4.64 (No. 71) Target Quality Rating and a 76.2-percent (No. 50) Catchable Target Rate. The Bears’ offensive game plan has produced a league-worst 4.8 Yards Per Attempt.

Robinson has a low 6.8 (No. 88) Average Target Distance with 21 (No. 33) targets on the season. That’s 10 fewer targets than three games into 2020. On a positive note, the passing game is consolidated around him and Darnell Mooney. Robinson has a 25.3-percent (No. 21) Target Share. There’s always hope that a talent like ARob will turn it around (assuming competent play-calling), but for the time being he drops two spots to fall to the edge of the Top 20 (WR19). It may be time to worry if Robinson can’t get on track when the Lions visit Soldier Field in Week 4.

Adam Trautman – TE New Orleans Saints

For the second straight game, Adam Trautman was held catch-less. Another box score of donuts. On the bright side, he saw his first target since Week 1. Trautman had six targets in Week 1, catching three of them for 18 yards. Through three games, he is seeing a 57.1-percent (No. 32) Snap Share, but is an afterthought in a low-volume passing attack. The Saints average a league-low 21.3 Team Pass Plays Per Game.

Trautman leads the TE room in snaps, but has shared passing game usage with Juwan Johnson. Both have seven targets on the year. The athletic Trautman loses 4.45 Lifetime Value points and three spots to fall to TE14.

More notable players with stocks trending down this week: Jalen Hurts, Ty Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, K.J. Hamler, Sterling Shepard, Jonnu Smith