The Ultimate Dynasty Buy-low-gasm

by The Podfather, March 3, 2016

We were fortunate to have 25 of the best fantasy football analysts from various sites reveal their one true favorite buy-low target this offseason.  You should be following all of them.

Start.  Your.  Engines.

Nelson Agholor, WR

Even if his rookie year was a disaster, I think the talent is still there.  His dynasty ADP has fallen from No. 43 last August to No. 84 now.  For a player with an above average college profile, good athleticism, and not much competition for targets, I’m buying.

-Jon Moore, RotoViz (@TheCFX)

Phillip Dorsett, WR & Coby Fleener, TE

I think there are a lot of buy-low opportunities on the Colts, who fell far short of 2015 expectations, primarily due to injuries and inefficiency.  Phillip Dorsett and Coby Fleener‘s stock was diminished mainly by bad luck and recency bias.  Dorsett is an intriguing target as a player who’s a virtual lock to ascend but is getting very little buzz right now that would drive up his cost.  Fleener’s real-life game has flaws but he is dirt cheap, still young and very athletic.  Fleener and Dorsett have a ton of box-score upside for 2016 and beyond.

-Evan Silva, Rotoworld (@EvanSilva)

Jeff Janis, God

At this point, if you are not actively trying to get Jeff Janis on all your dynasty teams, I don’t really think you’re trying to win your league.  He plays with one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and the other surrounding offensive weapons proved to be asses in 2015 (Randall Cobb is a role player and Davante Adams is going to be asking if you want to upgrade to a Super Size in five years).  After Janis’ explosion against Arizona, all of our hopes and dreams have been realized… Realize the dream, my friends!

-Davis Mattek, Fantasy Insiders (@DavisMattek)

 Carlos Hyde, RB

A lot of hate has gone Carlos Hyde‘s way after his season ended somewhat abruptly in 2015.  Hyde tried to gut it out in Weeks 6 & 7 while playing with a stress fracture in his foot, but wasn’t very productive, which ultimately led to him having surgery and being placed on I.R.  The good news for dynasty owners is that this has significantly dropped his value, and he’s now being drafted outside the top-12 at his position.

The good news is that Carlos Hyde plans to be ready for OTA’s with a new offense being installed.  Touches mean everything to running backs nowadays, and new Head Coach Chip Kelly has given his running backs an average of 30.3 touches per game over the last three years.  Not just that, but those running backs have combined to average 0.71 fantasy points per touch.  While that number can be skewed on a game to game basis, it’s somewhat reliable on a 48 game span (Kelly’s tenure) with six running backs included.  It also doesn’t hurt that Hyde was extremely successful out of the shotgun in college.

Dealing with little to no competition in the 49ers backfield, Carlos Hyde should rack up a minimum of 18- touches per game.  There were nine running backs who averaged 18 or more touches in 2015 and played at least 13-games. Not one of those backs finished outside the top 16 in year-end scoring.  Even if Hyde were to get just 18-touches per game and average what Kelly’s backs have done over the last three years, he would be average 12.78-points per game.  That would’ve been No. 8 amongst all running backs last year, and Hyde is far from an average talent.  He should easily be drafted as a top-ten running back, and maybe top-five considering he’s just 24 years old.

-Mike Tagliere, Pro Football Focus (@MikeTagliereNFL)

Charles Johnson, WR

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Charles Johnson Advanced Metrics Profile

Charles Johnson is an athletic freak, and fellow freak Jerick McKinnon‘s presence could convince the Vikings to pass more frequently.  Everyone seems to want to leave Johnson for dead after he was efficient in spot duty last season.  Now is the perfect time to stash him.

-Samuel Feldman, numberFire (@ThaDudeFeldman)

Marvin Jones, WR

Thumbing over February’s dynasty ADP, I’d say Marvin Jones is still too low at WR54.  Jones has already posted two top-36 scoring seasons on low to pedestrian volume and is about to likely sign an inflated deal (for his overall talent) somewhere that should secure him short term volume through his peak years.  Going roughly 40 spots overall after Allen Hurns, who basically is a Jacksonville Marvin Jones feels like an exploitable gap, and I’d rather have Jones heads up.  He won’t win you leagues, but offers solid return on marginal investment.

-Rich Hribar, Rotoworld (@LordReebs)

Teddy Bridgewater, QB

Most fantasy football players get caught up in end of the season stats, which isn’t a bad thing with most positions. With quarterback, though, context is more important.  Teddy Bridgewater was essentially as good as Matthew Stafford in ANY/A (adjusted net yards per attempt), despite being in the league five less years and having one of the league’s worst receiver corps.  With Stefon Diggs emerging, and the team almost certain to add talent around their quarterback, I’m buying while his price is still low (QB17).

-Karl Safchick, Dynasty League Football (@KarlSafchick)

Coby Fleener

I’m more than a little interesting in acquiring Coby Fleener now that the Colts have locked up Dwayne Allen.  Fleener, with the benefit of Allen missing four games in 2014, finished as TE6 with a mere 85 targets.  The upside: Fleener’s occasionally terrible hands and iffy status as a free agent should make him pretty cheap.  My feelings wouldn’t be hurt to see him sign with Green Bay.

-C.D. Carter, Draft Day Consultants (@CDCarter13)

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE

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Austin Seferian-Jenkins Advanced Metrics Profile

Austin Seferian-Jenkins fits the required physical profile to be an every-down TE.  ASJ is tied to a soon-to-be-elite QB, and yet he is generally cheaper to acquire than Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, and Tyler Eifert.

-Nick Coder, PlayerProfiler (@NickCoder)

Terrance Williams, WR

I can’t believe I’m saying this — and he’s not really my “favorite” dynasty buy low — but WR Terrance Williams intrigues me.  Williams has sufficient size and speed, and in each of his three NFL seasons he has been right on the cusp of relevance.  In the big picture, there aren’t all that many WRs who average 732 yards and just over five touchdowns per season in their first three campaigns.

In 2014, Terrance Williams had eight TDs.  In 2015, he had 840 yards.  An 800-8 campaign in 2016 is within his realistic range of outcomes, especially with Tony Romo returning — but no one is valuing T-Will as if he has low-end WR2 potential.  Williams is not really even being valued at the production he’s accumulated in the NFL.  He can be had very cheaply as a throw-in — some people might even be glad to get him off their rosters.  As a supplementary piece in a trade, he might currently provide the best mix of accessibility and upside in the dynasty format.

-Matt Freedman, FantasyLabs (@MattFTheOracle)

Dion Lewis, RB

How can a top 25 ranked running back based on Dynasty ADP be a buy low?  Somehow, Dion Lewis is exactly that.  Recently in a trade I saw him go as a throw in, which surprised me.  Then TWICE I saw him traded for a pair of 2nd round picks.  Fantasy football enthusiasts (rightfully) get scared of Patriots running backs and he hasn’t been the healthiest horse in the stable.  The fact is, when healthy he was Brady’s safety valve and a PPR beast, something Brady may need more and more in the coming years.  For a the price tag of a couple mid round draft picks in this year’s weak class, he provides more upside than the players you may get in a rookie draft at that point.

-Scott Fish, Scott Fish Bowl (@ScottFish24)

Sammie Coates, WR

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Sammie Coates Advanced Metrics Profile

Sammie Coates is exactly the kind of player you should be buying in dynasty.  Coates has an outstanding physical profile (97th-percentile Burst Score and Catch Radius), plays with an elite quarterback, and could see a massive increase in volume as soon as this year.  Oh, and he’s basically free.

-Anthony Amico, RotoViz (@Amicsta)

Willie Snead, WR

The Marques Colston era in New Orleans ended in Week 1 of the 2015 season when Willie Snead outproduced him despite only playing 18-snaps to Colston’s 45.  The importance of earning the trust of Drew Brees cannot go understated, and it showed with Snead being nearly as productive and efficient as Brandin Cooks despite spending his entire rookie season on practice squads.  With the team badly needing to prioritize defense over offense during the draft and free agency, the 23-year old Snead is a prime buy-low candidate who you can likely get for basement-level prices.

-Ray Marzarella, PlayerProfiler (@RayRayMarz)

Jerick McKinnon, RB

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Jerick McKinnon Advanced Metrics Profile

If you can afford to be patient, then you stand to make a bundle on Jerick McKinnon at some point down the road. He’s more than just a measurables freak, he’s a good football player with a three down skill set.  McKinnon is a good receiver and he has the strength to be outstanding in pass protection. It’s possible that Adrian Peterson never sees the $6,000,000 roster bonus he is due next March.  Add McKinnon now, while he is still a bargain.

-Peter Davidson, RotoBahn.com (@RotoBahn)

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB

There are few words more pleasurable to the ear of a frugal Italian such as myself than ‘free’.  When it comes to fantasy football, taking a flier on late round picks that cost basically nothing has been one of my go-to moves, which is why someone like Jimmy Garoppolo is a dynasty buy low in my eyes.

Garoppolo is more so a target in 2QB/Superflex dynasty leagues, where it’s cheaper to acquire a backup signal caller than an entrenched starter.  With news of Tom Brady signing a two-year deal that will keep him in New England through his age-42 season, Jimmy Garoppolo‘s 2QB dynasty stock and price has plummeted.

The NFL last season saw 53 different quarterbacks start at least one game, and experienced 2QBers know how vital it is to keep a well stocked stable of signal callers rostered.

The former second-round draft pick presents an opportunity to acquire a future starter at backup prices.  If he is the heir apparent to Tom Brady, or if Terrific Tom, who will be 39 once the 2016 NFL season begins, starts to show his age, 2QB owners that made a move to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo would find themselves with a valuable asset: a backup turned starter.  There’s also the possibility that a team might trade for Garoppolo and try to turn him into a starter, as has happened with past Patriots backup quarterbacks.

If Jimmy Garoppolo were to wind up with a career resembling that of his best comparable player on PlayerProfiler.com you could do worse than buy low now.

-Salvatore Stefanile, TwoQBs.com (@2QBFFB)

Terrell Watson, RB

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Terrell Watson Advanced Metrics Profile

Terrell Watson is comparable player to Derrick Henry on PlayerProfiler.com. A quality offensive line is in place, narrative street is paved, and there are no proven NFL workhorse backs in front of him. in front of him.

-Brian Tesch, FantasyPros (@TheRealTesch)

Kevin White, WR

Kevin White is getting swept under the rug, because of an invisible rookie season.  While we still don’t have actual NFL production to go off of — his draft position, projected year two role in the Bears offense and tremendous physical profile combine into someone that is oozing with potential.  There’s no reason the Jarvis Landry‘s of the world should be going over White.

-Russell Clay, Pro Football Focus (@RussellJClay)
Editor’s Note: Russ clearly has expensive tastes.

Lance Dunbar, RB

Sir Lance-he-caught-a-lot was on pace for an elite season with 21 catches in just 3.5 games before tearing his ACL in 2015.  The specter of free agency has owners spooked to his future but his 94th percentile agility score should have you trying to corner the market.  Lance Dunbar should be very cheap to acquire and the upside is a borderline RB2 in PPR leagues.

-George Kritikos, Filmetrx Podcast (@RotoHack)

Michael Campanaro, WR

While Campanaro missed multiple games during his final season at Wake Forest, in the games he played, he accounted for a mind-boggling approximately 60-percent of WFU’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.  More precisely, a 59.5-percent (98th-percentile) College Dominator Rating is one of the highest in the PlayerProfiler.com database among major conference wide receivers.

Also working in Michael Campanaro‘s favor is the fact that no receiver who saw their snaps rise due to injury last year was able to post a positive production premium. Most importantly the de facto target leader Kamar Aiken ranked outside the top 50 in this area and was as ineffective as the Jordy Nelson-less Randall Cobb.  When looking at his athletic profile, collegiate dominance, and projected role on offense, he will enter next season in an enviable situation, and is a top breakout candidate in both dynasty and redraft fantasy football formats.

-Tim Talmadge, RotoViz (@FullOnTLT)

Charles Sims, RB

Charles Sims is the no-brainer buy of the offseason.  Sims is productive, 1090 rushing and receiving yards in 2015.  Sims is efficient, +19.4 (No. 20) Production Premium.  Sims is elusive, 33.5-percent (No. 13) Juke Rate.  Sims is cheap (ADP of 104.4). All of these are great reasons to buy Charles Sims, but the main reason I am buying is future opportunity. Doug Martin is slated to test the free agent market. Sims has to opportunity to transform from an uber-productive 3rd-down back with workhorse capabilities, 35.8-percent (76th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, into a 3-down feature back on an ascending offense oozing with talent.  Even if Doug Martin returns to the Buccaneers Sims has proven useful enough in a limited roll to be a fantasy asset, 11.4 Fantasy points per game (21st in the league).  With the likely chance Martin leaves, I am buying Charles Sims, and his all-around talent set, everywhere possible.

-Craig Wambold, PlayerProfiler (@CraigWambold)

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Charles Sims Advanced Metrics Profile

Charles Sims is a good buy because Tampa Bay didn’t tag Doug Martin today and all the metrics point towards Sims being the more efficient player anyway. He may not be the bell cow this year, but Sims should perform well in the 1A role with 15-20 touches a game. Jameis Winston is the focal point of the offense moving forward and Bucs aren’t gonna wanna pay Doug what he can get on the open market.

-Josh Levinson, PlayerProfiler (@jlevinson1293)

Charles Sims is one of my favorite dynasty buys at the moment. While its still unknown as to whether Doug Martin will re-sign with the Buccaneers, Sims is a player that has stand alone value as PPR RB with the possibility to see a bump in usage.  In 2015 Sims finished as the RB17 going over 1000 combined yards while finishing with the 7th most recs and targets. If Martin fails to return to Tampa or gets injured at any point, Sims will catapult into RB1 status.  Sims is still being undervalued in dynasty as he is consistently ranked as a RB3 and outside of the top-90 players.

-Scott Smith, PlayerProfiler (@ScottSmith610)

Kenny Bell, WR

All of Kenny Bell‘s workout metrics on PlayerProfiler.com check in above the 75th-percentile. With Vincent Jackson resembling death warmed over, Bell checks more boxes than most 2016 sleeper receiver candidates.

-Nate Liss, FieldGulls.com (@AnOutragedJew)

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Kenny Bell Advanced Metrics Profile

Kenny Bell is a young wide receiver with exceptional advanced metrics getting drafted outside the top-140 in a position to start on a team with an old vet and a young WR to take most of the defensive attention that could be had for a song? (gasps for air)… Yes please.

-Dynasty Frank, Bull Rush Podcast (@DyanstyFrank)

DeMarco Murray, RB

Demarco Murray. We know he’s talented, he has a great profile, he’s still only 28, Chip Kelly is gone, and he should snag back the majority of snaps next year. I also think a sell high piece would be fun to read, since we’re on this track.

-Christopher Gerrish, PlayerProfiler (@GerrishBrosFF)

Jace Amaro, TE

My favorite dynasty buy low is Jace Amaro. Amaro was nearly free to start the offseason and he has become even cheaper thanks to a recent Rotoworld blurb that Amaro’s teammates “are skeptical” that he’ll ever be effective at the NFL level. Amaro was a very good tight end prospect with a 23.2% college dominator rating(71st percentile)and he was a top 50 pick in the NFL draft.

Jace Amaro didn’t do much in his rookie year, but tight ends rarely do. His sophomore season was over before it started thanks to a shoulder injury. As Amaro enters his 3rd season in the NFL, he is primed for a breakout and could see a number of the red zone targets that Eric Decker saw in 2015 when he had 28 red zone targets for 10 touchdowns. Amaro has the highest upside of any tight end close to his price, go out and get him before he has an Ertz’ian like run to end the 2016 season and becomes a top 100 startup pick in 2017.

-Nathan Powell, Dynasty League Football (@NPowellFF)

Michael Floyd, WR

Michael Floyd finished 2015 with a top-20 Production Premium and an absolutely ridiculous contested catch rate. Fitzgerald faded down the stretch – decreasing snap share in each of the last 4 weeks. Would anyone challenge that we can expect Floyd’s 72.8-percent snap share and Fitzgerald’s 95.2-percent to even out, if not flip entirely next season? The Cardinals were in the bottom half of the league in passing attempts last season, so there is room for the opportunities to increase if the efficiency regresses.

-Matthew Zimmerman, PlayerProfiler (@mZimm22)

Javorius Allen, RB

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Javorius “Buck” Allen Advanced Metrics Profile

In a vacuum, Javorius Allen is a mildly less athletic version of David Johnson.  While Allen’s situation is similar to Johnson, dynasty enthusiasts are drafting Allen 5-10 rounds later in dynasty start-ups.  Weird.

-Matt Kelley, PlayerProfiler (@Fantasy_Mansion)

You’re welcome.