Avoiding players that ultimately fall short of expectations is key to succeeding in fantasy football. Busts are like landmines and fantasy managers must proceed with caution to avoid blowing up their team. Limiting the number of busters in a single season is important but identifying players with the sustainable long-term value is paramount in dynasty leagues. I like to say that these are the players that have bulletproof values in dynasty.
I believe these three players will maintain their current value from year to year. Maybe it is because they aren’t being properly valued this year, or perhaps it is because their talent profile is exceptional. Either way, the players that I am going to dive into will maintain their value.
RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Currently, Josh Jacobs is being selected in the sixth round as RB20. That immediately presents some value. Jacobs has finished as a top 15 running back on a points per game basis each of the three years he has been in the NFL. In 2021, the Raiders’ tailback was the RB12 overall and scored more than 15 fantasy points per contest. He had a 68.5-percent Opportunity Share (No. 9 among qualified running backs) and 767 Yards Created (No. 9). Not only did Jacobs get touches, but he also saw a good number of targets. Jacobs saw 64 targets to be exact (No. 9). The dude isn’t a sexy selection on draft day, but his production sure is.
This season is very interesting regarding Mr. Jacobs. He is entering his contract year, and the Vegas offense projects to be as strong as they have ever been during Jacobs’ time with the team. Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams have been added. Word out of Raiders’ camp is that the new head coach would like to deploy a running back committee. Camp talk is just noise until the team proves otherwise. And even if that ends up being the case, it will hurt his redraft value. Once he is given a contract from Vegas, or someone else in the off-season next year, his dynasty stock will stabilize to his currently value.
WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
As it stands, Christian Kirk is the WR 49 off the board and being selected somewhere in round 10 or 11 according to Player Profiler’s 2022 Mock Draft Data. Last season, Kirk finished as the WR 26 in total fantasy points and was WR 30 on a points per game basis. The wide receiver has only finished WR 49 or worse once in his four-year career. Kirk popped in a few key performance metrics last season. He had a 60-percent Contested Catch Rate (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers), +63.1 EPA (No. 10), and 2.02 Fantasy Points per Target (No. 15). Kirk has the talent, and now there will be a big opportunity.
The Jags melted everyone’s mind when they extended a massive free agent contract to the former Cardinal. Jacksonville brought the wide receiver aboard with a 4-year, $72 million-dollar mega deal to essentially be their de facto WR 1. It is hard to find a more accurate quarterback than Kyler Murray, but Trevor Lawrence is the former 1.01 for a reason. Even amid a dumpster fire season, Lawrence had 602 Pass Attempts (No. 7), 4,682 Air Yards (No. 8), and 40 Money Throws (No. 4) in his rookie campaign. With new Head Coach, Doug Pederson, the massive contract, and the uber QB prospect, Kirk’s value will at the very least remain the same. This is why he has one of the bulletproof values in dynasty.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets
The J-E-T-S…Jets, Jets, Jets traded up to select the running back with the fourth pick in the second round of this year’s draft. Rookie running backs taken early in the NFL Draft hit the fantasy market with elevated values. Most maintain that value for at least two years. This depends on several factors. Breece Hall is currently going in fantasy drafts as RB 6. The first three running backs taken in 2021 each held value, and they had a varying array of seasons. Najee Harris smashed, Javonte Williams split touches, and Travis Etienne was injured. All three tail backs are still being selected within the top 15 backs in 2022 according the PlayerProfiler Mock Draft Data. There is no reason why Hall won’t have the same treatment in dynasty given his prospect profile and draft capital.
The rookie tail back’s workout metrics are impressive, and he proved his high-end athleticism at the NFL Combine. Hall ran a 4.39 40-Yard Dash which placed him in the 97th-percentile. He is in the 94th-percentile or better in both Speed Score (116.9) and Burst Score (131.0). Hall was an absolute monster producer at Iowa State. He averaged 239.3 rushing attempts, 1,313.7 rushing yards, 244.7 receiving yards, and 18.7 touchdowns a year in his three seasons as a cyclone.
Due to the elite college production, Hall posted a 43.9-percent College Dominator Rating (95th-percentile). Michael Carter is still in New York, but Javonte Williams proved in ’21 that spitting carries does not tank a player’s value. When a rookie finds himself in the 90th-percentile or better in basically every performance metric, it is tough to see a scenario where his value evaporates into thin air.
Breece Hall, Christian Kirk, and Josh Jacobs are valuable in dynasty because their value will maintain from this season to next. Jacobs is perpetually undervalued given his yearly fantasy production. Kirk got the bag and will get a chance to smash his ADP in Jacksonville. Hall is a talented rookie that may prove to be elite from the start. There is multiple avenues in which a player’s value can become bulletproof. How they get there isn’t important. Rostering these types of players is what is important. Get Hall, Kirk, and Jacobs because have possess bulletproof values in dynasty.