This is BetOpenly Week 5 Picks! Welcome back to our expert article series. This is where the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 4, our picks went 4-2, including a sweep on Ahaan’s against-the-spread picks (Jaguars -3 and Texans +3). This week, we are back with four best bets with odds that you can only get betting peer-to-peer on BetOpenly.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). Additionally, you can combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. We advise that you tail these picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 5 Picks
Atlanta Falcons to Win (-113)
We’ve made a lot of money at PlayerProfiler already backing the quarterback who should have been selected No. 1 in this year’s draft, C.J. Stroud. With what he has accomplished already with a beaten up supporting cast, it is clear that the Ohio State product is a legitimate star in the making. However, with the books finally reacting, the public is all over Houston continuing their winning streak by taking down the team that was just embarrassed in London. It is now time to pivot and take the sharp side.
Despite Stroud’s Texans putting on an offensive showcase over the last few weeks, their team total is still set by Vegas at 20.5. This is exactly where it was set last game where we cashed the over. With Atlanta back home, where Arthur Smith is 6-5-0 against the spread since last season, they should go back to their fundamental style. Atlanta will grind it out with their backfield instead of turning Desmond Ridder into a playmaker.
The Houston Texans rank No. 22 in the NFL in run stop win rate and No. 23 in rushing defense EXP. The elite backfield duo of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should have their way. Additionally, the Falcons defense should be able to take advantage of the Texans’ injuries and do the rest. For the Texans, three starting offensive linemen remain questionable. Although Stroud has found success so far despite dealing with a banged up offensive line, it is unrealistic to ask him to continue this hero ball all season long.
He was able to expose the lackluster secondaries of Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. However, it’ll be a tad harder to repeat that performance against the likes of A.J. Terrell, Jeff Okudah, and Jessie Bates III. Despite Stroud’s results being staggering, he does rank No. 25 in completion percentage and No. 20 in pressured catchable pass rate under pressure.
Don’t expect Houston to get any sort of ground game going either. Starting running back Dameon Pierce is inefficient, has been banged up himself, and now has to go up a Falcons team that ranks No. 8 in run stop win rate and No. 1 in rushing defense EXP.
The betting public hates the Falcons. They don’t want to back Arthur Smith’s ugly offensive tactics. However, there is a reason Vegas is still respecting them at home as a favorite. On BetOpenly, you can avoid that extra juice altogether and take Atlanta at a near-pick-’em price.
Arizona Cardinals Spread +3 (+104)
If I told you before the season that the former AFC-winning Cincinnati Bengals led by Joe Burrow would only be three-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, whose quarterback situation was uncertain until Week 1, you probably would be in stunned silence. That is where we stand and rightfully so. Burrow is dealing with a calf injury and has not looked good trying to play through it. Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, Burrow ranks No. 30 in adjusted EPA per play, No. 30 in success rate, and No. 33 in complete percentage over expectation. Now, his second-best weapon, Tee Higgins, is likely out of the offense due to a rib injury.
Things have gotten so ugly for Cincinnati’s offense that in Week 4, when they faced one of the most egregious pass funnel defenses in the league in the Titans, and couldn’t muster a single touchdown drive. The Bengals are staying competitive in some games thanks to some defensive turnovers, but their peripherals are far from elite.
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs ranks among league-average in adjusted EPA per play, success rate, and complete percentage over expectation. Arizona is one of only four offenses in the NFL that ranks top-six in passing DVOA and rushing DVOA. Quite simply, the Cardinals have the more well-polished offense right now, and the Bengals don’t have too many defensive counters. They rank among the league’s worst in pass rush win rate, run stop win rate, and defensive EXP. Take the home team to keep it within a field goal or just win outright.
On the sportsbooks, you need to pay juice to get the 3-point push potential. However, on BetOpenly, you can get that same bet at plus-money.
Trevor’s Week 5 Picks
David Montgomery (DET) Touchdown (-120)
David Montgomery completely controls the Detroit backfield and draws one of the dream matchups this week with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are giving up 4.9 Yards per carry, six touchdowns, and 479 rushing yards this season while being dead last in DVOA. The Lions possess one of the best offensive lines in the NFL while having the No. 6 best DVOA run offense. This week the Lions are able to add Jameson Williams to this offense which will draw even more attention away from the running game.
Montogomery currently is averaging 87.3 yards a game with 262 yards this season. He has a 4.3-percent Explosive Run Rate, with 100-percent of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line. David is also No. 4 in the NFL with 190 yards after contact while only playing three games this season thus far. The Lions have one of the highest implied team totals of the week at 27.5, and with Montgomery’s usage of 100-percent inside the five-yard line, we model this true line to be -195.
The Lions are coming off a long rest period after playing last Thursday night. This is going to be one of the more lopsided games of Week 5. Carolina allowing 2.12 yards rushing before contact is No. 3 worst in the NFL. PlayerProfiler projects Montgomery for over 20 carries and 90 yards this week, and I personally will be using Monty for a touchdown at BetOpenly.
Zay Flowers (BAL) Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens have been one of the more up-and-down teams to start this season. The offense has struggled and succeeded while it learns Monken’s new offense. The Steelers have been middle of the road this season with the No. 13 Pass ranked DVOA defense. However, they are No. 31 in yards allowed per Pass. The Ravens have an implied total of 21.25 this week, and to reach that number, Flowers will have to be involved in the game plan. This season, Flowers has been targeted 10, 5, 10, and 4 times. Zay is currently the clear WR1 for the Ravens.
Flowers will get two good matchups for himself and the Ravens. He will see Patrick Peterson and Levi Wallace. Both defensive backs give up a 62-percent catch rate with 14 or more ADOT. Flowers currently has a 27.6-percent target share, which leads the team while running 90.5-percent of the Raven’s routes. He has 180 air yards with an 82.8-percent Catch Rate. This gives him the target upside we are looking for against this Steelers defense. For context, the Steelers have given up 129 yards to Brandon Aiyuk, 90 yards to Amari Cooper, 13 receptions and 172 yards to Davante Adams, and seven receptions and 168 yards to Nico Collins. Week 5 is the week the Ravens offense opens up Monken’s offense in this divisional matchup.