Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 13

by Ahaan Rungta · Matchups Start/Sit

We asked for a bounceback in Week 12, and we got a big one thanks to a huge Thanksgiving Sunday. This is the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 13! Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props of the week. As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.

Week 12 Review

It was a near-sweep on our picks, but we’ll gladly take profit as we cash on a correlation-based strategy Underdog three-legger. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.

Week 12 Sleeper Play: Derrick Henry Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns | Kenneth Walker Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Many will remember Treylon Burks‘ first career NFL touchdown as a fumble by Derrick Henry on what should have been a touchdown. We can’t say it was a bad beat for us since that would have been a receiving touchdown by Henry. The workhorse running back finished with just 38 rushing yards on 17 carries. Despite getting three red zone carries, he didn’t find the end zone.

Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker cashed his touchdown leg on his first touch of the game. Simply put, Walker continues to be the red zone alpha for a Seattle team that shouldn’t stop scoring any time soon. He’s a chalk touchdown threat every week.

Week 12 Underdog Play: Christian McCaffrey Under 4.5 Receptions, Jauan Jennings Over 16.5 Receiving Yards, Andy Dalton Under 216.5 Passing Yards

The strategy was simple with this one. We wanted to find a game with multiple prop leans we liked that are positively correlated with each other and play them in the same entry. The price of a pick ‘em parlay does not change regardless of correlation. Therefore, as long as we are featuring both teams, we have a valid ticket.

We started by correctly identifying a game script. The 49ers played from well ahead of a pitiful Saints team that was heavily banged up on defense. Indeed, both Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey were used in the run game. After a Mitchell injury, Jordan Mason took carries. Despite McCaffrey recording four receptions in the first half, the 49ers were happy to run the clock late in the game in a multi-possession contest. Additionally, McCaffrey never received the fifth catch.

We also worked under this assumption to realize that Jauan Jennings would be a beneficiary of Jimmy Garoppolo passes even in a positive game script for San Francisco. Indeed, Jennings led the team in receptions (6) and recorded 49 yards. This included his first touchdown of the season.

Despite the negative game script, garbage time wasn’t enough for Andy Dalton to catch up to a number too high for the washed veteran. He stayed under this 216.5 total to cash us a full “no-insurance,” three-legger to multiply our entry fees by five in profits.

  • Week 12 Legs: 4-1; overall +2.00u
  • YTD: 27-25-1; -1.00u

Week 13 Picks

If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. In the beginner’s article, we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.

Both plays for Week 13 are correlative plays on utilizing an effective strategy. That strategy is to get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. All three of our legs are positively correlated with each other. So, we’re making fewer bets to hit three legs than if we bet three separate unrelated events.

Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Jaylen Waddle (MIA) OVER 65.5 receiving yards

The first game we are targeting is one of several revenge spots on the slate. This week in Miami we will see former 49ers Jeff Wilson Jr., Trent Sherfield, and Mike McDaniel all try to topple Kyle Shanahan in the Wild West. However, with all eyes on them, we will pivot to Miami’s underrated superstar.

Waddle has cleared this number in all eight games where Tua Tagovailoa was the primary quarterback. While the San Francisco defense seems like a tough matchup on paper, with their No. 10-ranked pass DVOA, a lot of that is due to No. 1 cornerback Charvarius Ward. Ward should spend a lot of time locked up on former teammate Tyreek Hill with potential double teams to help him. That should free up the field for Waddle in a game that the Dolphins are projected by Vegas to play in a negative game script.

Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): George Kittle (SF) OVER 11.7 fantasy points

We will work under the assumption Vegas is sharp about the 49ers playing from ahead in Week 13. This means San Francisco has to find scoring somehow and production from one of their many weapons, especially in the end zone. We’re choosing Kittle to do that for us because this season the Dolphins have allowed the No. 6-most receiving yards per game and third-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

With Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard likely spending a lot of time on wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, I’d rather take the elite tight-end talent to carry the air game for San Francisco instead of trying to guess Deebo Samuel‘s role.

Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Mike White (NYJ) OVER 33.5 passing attempts

This was one of our picks in the Underdog Pick Generator earlier in the week and we got it then at 32.5. The line moving further up might be due to plenty of action on the over. However, I’m still comfortable taking this number. In his two full games as the Jets’ starting quarterback last season, he recorded 45 and 44 pass attempts. In his one start this season (Week 12), he went 22-28 completing passes against the Bears before the game was chalked up as a blowout. As a result, he did not need to air it out anymore.

Buy low in a narrative that should be much more conducive to the Jets having to pass the ball and possibly have to play from behind all game. The Vikings’ pass defense ranks No. 27 in the NFL in pass DVOA. Additionally, no unit has allowed more passing yards this season than this Vikings defense. This line is set one higher (at 34.5) on sportsbooks right now, so even the new line is friendly.

Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Tyler Conklin (NYJ) OVER 31.5 receiving yards

Again, we will operate under the assumption that we are right about our game script since we want positively correlated events to get value out of our pick ‘em entry. If White throws several passes and has to play from behind, a few of them simply must go to the No. 1 tight end on the team. Also, this is a revenge game for Conklin as he’s playing his former team. Conklin has cleared this number in five of his last 10 games and easily cleared it (got to 50 yards) when Mike White started last week.

The Vikings are around middle-of-the-pack in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. However, with pass-catching back Michael Carter a no-go for Week 13, we’re getting too much of a discount on Conklin. This makes him a very viable stack piece not just for this pick ‘em entry but as a DFS sleeper.

Pick No. 5 (Underdog): Justin Jefferson (MIN) UNDER 6.5 receptions

It might seem like a futile endeavor to fade arguably the best wide receiver in football. However, if there’s a situation to do it, it’s against this legitimate Jets defense that ranks No. 5 in the NFL in pass DVOA. Jefferson will match up against rookie stud cornerback Sauce Gardner who has only allowed more than three receptions on his coverage in two games all season long.

A favorable game script for us, where the Vikings play from ahead, will only help us meet this under as it would limit the need for Minnesota to pass the ball. There is a reason this line is juiced to the under on sportsbooks. Therefore, we will take advantage by making it the third leg of our pick ‘em parlay.

Example Slips

If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:

  • 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 1u if both picks hit
  • 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Underdog picks, without insurance; profits 2.5u all three picks hit

Your entries should look like this.

To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.