This article follows a Thanksgiving slate where our very own Matt Babich went 3-0 on player props, and I already cashed my Best Bet of the Week on the Writer’s Roundtable. We are cooking with gas already after an underwhelming Week 11. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props: Week 12! As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Fantasy gamers who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff members. Players can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 11 Review
I tried my shot at some correlation primarily on pass-catchers, but it didn’t work as it was a near-reverse-sweep. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.
Week 10 Sleeper Play: Hayden Hurst Over 40.5 Receiving Yards | Tee Higgins Under 75.5 Receiving Yards | CeeDee Lamb Over 75.5 Receiving Yards
I sought a correlation between Bengals pass-catchers. My educated guess was Hayden Hurst would eat against a Steelers secondary that would primarily be focused on WR1 Tee Higgins. Instead, Higgins stomped all over the stat sheet in a 37-30 shootout with nine receptions on 13 targets for 148 yards. Hurst logged just two receptions on three targets for 28 yards. We paired this duo with a CeeDee Lamb alpha game, but the Cowboys ran all over the Vikings and didn’t need Lamb to take over to win 40-3. The third-year wideout finished with a season-low five targets, producing five receptions for 45 yards. Blah.
Week 10 Underdog play: Matthew Stafford Under 232.5 Passing Yards | Terry McLaurin Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
In Matthew Stafford‘s first game of the season without Cooper Kupp, he put up a season-low 61-percent completion rate and produced just 159 yards with two touchdowns before leaving the game due to injury. He was never on pace to challenge this line and might be shut down for the season.
Wide receiver Terry McLaurin was our pairing choice on this play. However, the Commanders dominated this game early and didn’t need to air it out. Despite the unfavorable game script, McLaurin nearly cashed us out as he drew seven targets and produced four receptions for 55 yards. This proved to be a good process, but the result did not fall our way.
- Week 10 Legs: 1-4; overall -1.00u
- YTD: 23-24-1; -3.00u
Week 12 Picks
If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article where we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.
Our three-leg correlative play on Underdog utilizes an effective strategy: get positive correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. All three of our legs are positively correlated with each other. Therefore, we’re making fewer bets on hitting three legs than if we bet on three separate unrelated events.
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Derrick Henry (TEN) OVER 0.5 rushing touchdowns
This is a rare touchdown prop. Henry is probably the alpha of the NFL when it comes to leading a team on offense. The Titans rely on him whether or not it’s a good idea. This week they face a Bengals defense that has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to running backs this season and at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in four straight games.
Henry has scored at least once in seven of his ten games this season and five of Ryan Tannehill‘s eight starts. His anytime touchdown prop is juiced to -135 on sportsbooks. He has zero receiving touchdowns this season, so we’re getting a near-equivalent prop at the price of a pick ‘em leg.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Kenneth Walker (SEA) OVER 0.5 rushing touchdowns
Touchdowns are usually way too variant to put too much stock into. However, at these prices, we will gladly take the steal. Kenneth Walker‘s anytime touchdown prop is juiced to -165 on sportsbooks right now and rightfully so.
He has also has zero receiving touchdowns this season, so this is essentially a rushing touchdown bet. It’s objectively best to bet on volume, and Walker has been the definition of that. He’s leading the NFL in red zone rushes in Weeks 6 to 10, which covers his five weeks as a starter. The Raiders couldn’t defend a turtle crossing the street let alone a good NFL rusher. Las Vegas’ defense ranks No. 22 in rush DVOA and has allowed seven rushing touchdowns to running backs this season.
The books expect Seattle to score since their 25.75-point implied team total is the No. 5-highest of the Week 12 Sunday slate. Walker should be the focal point of that scoring attack especially with some rain in the forecast in Seattle.
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Christian McCaffrey (SF) UNDER 4.5 receptions
The versatile weapon Christian McCaffrey can cash this easily if Jimmy Garoppolo drops back to pass frequently in this game. However, the 8.5-point spread in favor of a San Francisco team that is nearly fully healthy suggests they should play from ahead and defer to the run. That is why we will trust the sportsbooks on this leg and take advantage of a pick ‘em leg that is juiced to -145 on sportsbooks right now.
McCaffrey faced the Saints’ No. 20-ranked rush DVOA defense earlier this season when he was a member of the Panthers. He grinded 25 carries for 108 yards and didn’t need to beat them through the air. Expect more of the same in Week 12 as the Saints rank No. 28 in quarterback pressure rate and there aren’t too many guys on the banged-up Saints secondary who can guard the 49ers’ wideouts. Therefore, Garoppolo should look their way instead when he isn’t handing the ball off.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Jauan Jennings (SF) OVER 16.5 receiving yards
The 49ers’ 26.25-point implied Vegas team total is the No. 4-highest on the Week 12 Sunday slate means the 49ers should be able to find offense at will against the Saints who have given up the No. 9-most receiving yards to wide receivers entering this week.
That bodes well for Jauan Jennings who should find himself in the game regardless of game script. He has cleared this number in six of his nine games this season and five out of seven games where Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle are all active. If McCaffrey isn’t getting volume as we just predicted, the passes have to go somewhere. If Jennings can draw even three targets, this leg should be easy money.
Pick No. 5 (Underdog): Andy Dalton (NO) UNDER 216.5 passing yards
Continuing to throw our chips into the assumption that the 49ers should dominate their opposition in Week 12, that should mean the washed veteran Andy Dalton shouldn’t see success against a defense that ranks No. 9 in the NFL in pass DVOA.
Dalton has stayed under this line in four of his eight starts this season including three of his five losses. This line is also a yard lower on sportsbooks, so we’ll take the free lunch as little as it may seem.
Example Slips
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 2.5u if all three picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 3 Underdog picks, without insurance; profits 2.5u all three picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.
