Air Yards DFS Value Index Week 13

by Edward DeLauter · Matchups Start/Sit

This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 13!

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.

Best Values

The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. The list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500. Then, our focus will shift to the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

Paying Up

Amari Cooper – DK: $6,400

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 1,299 (No. 4 among qualified wide receivers)|
Air Yards Share: 39.3-percent (No. 5)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 646 (No. 3)|

Amari Cooper is this week’s Air Yards value play! Cooper has exceeded expectations this season finishing as a weekly WR1 almost 50-percent of the weeks in which he plays. He has seen 573 Air Yards through his past four games after seeing 245 Air Yards last week. While Deshaun Watson will be taking over for Jacoby Brissett as quarterback after returning from his suspension, Cooper’s stranglehold on the Browns’ receiving game should not be affected. Fire up Cooper without hesitation in DFS this week.

Terry McLaurin – DK: $5,800

Air Yards Value Score: 91.50

Air Yards: 1,150 (No. 7)|
Air Yards Share: 36.8-percent (No. 10)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 581 (No. 4)|

Since Taylor Heincke became the Commanders’ starter, Terry McLaurin has averaged 3.1 more fantasy points per game including two top-12 finishes compared to his time receiving balls from Carson Wentz. While McLauren is coming off two consecutive disappointing performances in which he failed to crest double-digit fantasy points he has seen at least 78 Air Yards the past two weeks and is averaging over 100 Air Yards the past four weeks. Look for McLaurin to bounce back this week against a hobbled Giants secondary that was just torched by CeeDee Lamb.

Top-10 Value Plays

10) D.J. Chark – DK: $3,800

Air Yards Value Score: 45.84

Air Yards: 436 (No. -)|
Air Yards Share: 31.9-percent (No. -)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 346 (No. 29)|

Last week D.J. Chark played more than 70-percent of the Lions’ snaps for the first time since Week 3. He saw five targets and 79 Air Yards on his way to a respectable 9.6 fantasy points. Assuming Chark stays healthy, he should be in line for an impressive Air Yards share of the Lions’ passing offense this coming week in a game with a 51.5-point total. Chark week has to hit at some point this season and with Chark sporting an 18.2 Average Target Distance when it hits, it is going to hit big. At only $3,800 Chark is a great budget-saving value play in all formats.

D.J. Chark Advanced Stats & Metrics

9) Donovan Peoples-Jones  – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 49.29

Air Yards: 798 (No. 22)|
Air Yards Share: 24.2-percent (No. 43)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 295 (No. 38)|

Donovan Peoples-Jones disappointed last week against Tamp Bay seeing only four targets and scoring 3.6 fantasy points. He saw 43 Air Yards which was his lowest Air Yards total since Week 3. It will be interesting to see how Deshaun Watson spreads out the football in his Browns debut as quarterback. Sporting a 12.3 Average Depth of Target (No. 25), it would surprise no one if Peoples-Jones is able to secure a long ball or several from Watson. He is a great budget-saving value in tournament lineups.

8) Nico Collins  – DK: $4,200

Air Yards Value Score: 49.44

Air Yards: 610 (No. 42)|
Air Yards Share: 27.2-percent (No. 33)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 287 (No. 43)|

7) Brandin Cooks  – DK: $5,000

Air Yards Value Score: 49.81

Air Yards: 704 (No. 30)|
Air Yards Share: 28.2-percent (No. 27)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 361 (No. 28)|

The Kyle Allen experience did not go well for Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, but it could have gone worse. With the Texans trailing against the Dolphins in week 12, both Collins and Cooks saw similar usage. Cooks saw five targets and 47 Air Yards finishing with 11.1 fantasy points. Collins saw nine targets and 46 Air Yards finishing with 10.4 fantasy points. Both receivers saw a red zone target. Look for this 1A-1B usage to continue this week as the Texans face off against the Browns in Watson’s return to Houston. Both Cooks and Collins are cash-game viable.

6) Mack Hollins  – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 60.19

Air Yards: 883 (No. 19)|
Air Yards Share: 25.0-percent (No. 42)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 480 (No. 14)|

Mack Hollins continues to deliver from a fantasy perspective with both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow sidelined. He has seen at least 59 Air Yards per game and has scored double-digit fantasy points in the past two games. He remains a volatile fantasy option with a 14.0 Average Target Distance (no. 8) and is best reserved as a value play in tournament lineups.

5) George Pickens  – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 60.94

Air Yards: 907 (No. 18)|
Air Yards Share: 27.4-percent (No. 32)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 483 (No. 13)|

Since the Steelers’ Week 9 bye, George Pickens has out-gained teammate Diontae Johnson in both realized yards and Air Yards despite seeing two fewer targets. He is clearly the Steelers receiver to play in fantasy as he has scored double-digit fantasy points in the past three games. Look for Pickens to continue this trend against the Falcons’ exploitable secondary this week.

4) Marvin Jones  – DK: $4,000

Air Yards Value Score: 61.67

Air Yards: 736 (No. 26)|
Air Yards Share: 26.8-percent (No. 36)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 457 (No. 17)|

Marvin Jones scored 11.2 fantasy points last week thanks in large part to a last-moment acrobatic catch in the endzone. It is the first time Jones cracked double-digit fantasy points since Week 5. Regardless, Jones remains the Jaguars’ only viable downfield threat seeing 13.9 yards of average target distance (No. 13) and remains a great tournament dart throw.

3) Diontae Johnson – DK: $5,200

Air Yards Value Score: 62.97

Air Yards: 931 (No. 14)|
Air Yards Share: 28.1-percent (No. 28)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 523 (No. 9)|

Diontae Johnson has yet to score a touchdown this season. He is the only wide receiver with more than 600 Air Yards not to have scored a touchdown this year. With at least one red zone target the past four games, and eight of his 13 season-long targets coming within the past four games, the Steelers are intent on getting him a touchdown. Look for him to find the endzone this week against the Falcons.

2) Allen Lazard  – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 65.52

Air Yards: 876 (No. 20)|
Air Yards Share: 32.2-percent (No. 18)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 502 (No. 11)|

Christian Watson‘s ascension in the Packers’ passing game the past three weeks has left Allen Lazard struggling to maintain fantasy relevance. Lazard has only one double-digit fantasy point outing, and Watson is outgaining him by 140 Air Yards despite seeing only two fewer targets during this same three-week span. It is possible that Lazard pops off against the Bears this week based on target volume. However, with Christian Watson priced $200 less than the Lazard king, he is tough to stomach even as a uber-contrarian play this week.

1) Courtland Sutton  – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 71.21

Air Yards: 1,080 (No. 10)|
Air Yards Share: 28.9-percent (No. 26)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 518 (No. 10)|

Courtland Sutton has averaged 13 fantasy points per game since Jerry Jeudy was injured after running one route in Week 10. Averaging 8.6 targets and 100 Air Yards during this three-game span, Sutton is the main ingredient for Russell Wilson in the passing game. However, Wilson’s inability to microwave food, let alone cook this season, severely limits Sutton’s upside and he is best reserved for cash games only.

Good luck to everyone in Week 13. May all your Air Yards be realized.