PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the AFC North.
As we get closer to kicking off redraft season for both work and home leagues, I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape. I’ll be going one division at a time, now on to the AFC North, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.
Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North, NFC East, NFC South, and NFC West.
Draft Value: DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP 46.2, WR24)
It was a busy, aggressive offseason for the typically reserved Pittsburgh Steelers, who made it clear they are pushing their chips in. The Steelers courted Aaron Rodgers and ultimately landed the four-time MVP. They acquired veteran reinforcements like Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and Jonnu Smith. They also moved on from disgruntled wide receiver George Pickens. But perhaps their biggest move was trading a second-round pick to Seattle to bring in DK Metcalf.
The Steelers didn’t hesitate to make Metcalf their guy, handing him a 4-year, $132-million extension immediately after trading for his services. He’s now the clear alpha in a WR room that’s short on talent, consisting of unproven guys like Calvin Austin and Roman Wilson, and the shell of 33-year-old Robert Woods.
DK Metcalf’s Advanced Metrics
Since bagging Rodgers, I’ve heard some analysts say that Metcalf has 15 points per game upside in 2025. Here’s the thing: he’s already done that. Twice. Before missing two games with an MCL sprain last season, Metcalf averaged 15.1 points per game from Weeks 1-7. That outpaced guys like Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, and D.J. Moore, all of whom are currently going ahead of him in most drafts.
He also did it in his breakout 2020 season, totaling 83 catches for 1,303 yards, 10 TDs, and a WR7 finish on 17.0 PPG.
Target Surge Incoming
Still just 27 years old, Metcalf brings elite big-play upside with him to the rugged AFC North. He led the league with 33 deep targets last season and ranked no. 10 in receiving Explosive Play Rating.
Now, he enters an improved situation with little target competition and a Hall of Fame quarterback who loves to lock onto his top WR. In the second half of last season with Rodgers, Davante Adams averaged over 11 targets and 20.1 PPG. He was the WR4 in that stretch, and that was while competing with Garrett Wilson on the other side of the field.
Pittsburgh will need that type of production if it’s serious about making a run in Rodgers’ final season. The volume and opportunities will be there. Don’t be surprised if Metcalf blows past his WR24 cost.
That makes him a smart selection in the mid-to-late 4th-round as he should get peppered with all the throws he can handle.
Draft Fade: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP 106.6, TE7)
It’s Sunday, September 29, 2024. Fantasy managers see the Ravens just destroyed the Buffalo Bills 35-10. They think to themselves, “Surely, Mark Andrews must have rebounded from his zero-point dud the week prior and put up big numbers in a blowout.” Instead, they check their lineup and recoil in horror – another doughnut. Two in a row.
That was a rough time for Andrews’ managers everywhere. Through four games, he had just six receptions for 65 yards and zero touchdowns. Yes, Andrews was trying to bounce back from a car accident in August, but no one expected it to cause such a slow start.
After that Week 4 game, it was panic in the streets. He was being dropped or traded for players who had no business being mentioned in the same breath as a three-time Pro Bowler.
Mark Andrews’ Advanced Metrics
To his credit, Andrews rebounded the following week and ended up putting together a decent 2024 campaign, all things considered. He finished with 673 receiving yards on 55 catches and a career-high 11 touchdowns, good for a TE7 finish in fantasy points per game.
The price to draft Andrews this season is right where he finished last year. So why is he a fade?
Heir Apparent Already There?
Ever since his First-team All-Pro and overall TE1 season in 2021, it’s been a steady decline for Andrews. That season, he averaged 9.1 targets, 80.1 receiving yards, and 84.7 air yards per game. Since then:
2022: 7.5 targets, 56.5 receiving yards, and 73.9 air yards
2023: 6.1 targets, 54.4 receiving yards, and 44.4 air yards
2024: 4.1 targets, 39.6 receiving yards, and 42.8 air yards
This drop-off directly coincides with the emergence of fellow TE Isaiah Likely, who joined the team in 2022. Likely is the more explosive player nowadays, and the Ravens are using him like they did early-career Andrews: up the seam and in space. That leaves Andrews to work in more of an underneath and red zone role.
What could buoy Andrews a bit, at least in the first few weeks, is the recent foot fracture Likely suffered during training camp. Reports indicate he’ll undergo surgery, miss the rest of camp, and has an outside shot to be ready by Week 1. Even before the injury, there were reports that the Ravens planned to extend Likely and view him as the future at the position, and this small setback probably doesn’t change that.
Even with a potential early-season runway, I’m steering clear of Andrews. His name still carries weight, but last year’s sluggish start, combined with a colossal dropped two-point conversion in the Divisional round against the Bills that effectively cost the Ravens the game, will linger in the minds of most managers come draft day.
I’m not banking on another double-digit TD season to keep his value afloat. Stay away at cost and prioritize fellow AFC North TE David Njoku, or guys like Evan Engram and Tucker Kraft.
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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
