NFL

Despite picking up Sam Darnold’s fifth-year option, Carolina’s commitment to him as the starter may be brusque. It’s no secret that Panthers owner David Tepper covets acquiring a franchise quarterback. If Darnold and his league-worst among qualified quarterbacks -67.40 EPA does not improve in his new destination, expect the Panthers to follow Miami’s lead regarding how they dealt with Josh Rosen, and move on as soon as possible.

With Curtis Samuel vacating 97 (No. 37) Targets and taking into account D.J. Moore’s 757 (No. 8) Unrealized Air Yards, there are opportunities in the Panthers 2021 offense for more production for Moore. His 2.27 (No. 12) Yards Per Route Run, +68.7 (No. 11) EPA, and 28.1-percent (No. 13) Dominator Rating displayed elite efficiency that can translate to a fantasy football bounceback in 2021.

Quarterbacks with high Accuracy Ratings are a godsend to pass-catchers; these players will see a high dose of targets that they can actually do something with. A case in point is reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers, who finished the 2020 campaign with a 7.9 (No. 3 among qualified quarterbacks) Accuracy Rating and led the league in delivering an 81.0-percent Catchable Pass Rate.

We should have high hopes for Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He posted a 7.9 Accuracy Rating a year ago, the same as Aaron Rodgers and Teddy Bridgewater. He also delivered a Catchable Pass Rate of 80.3-percent in 2020. Only Rodgers and Drew Brees were better. Yet he managed a dismal 13.8 (No. 28) Fantasy Points per Game. Can we attach some blame to the players around him? With a -7.17 (No. 26) Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, you bet we can.

NFL teams do not mortgage the future for one-year wonders like Zach Wilson, or question mark athletes like Mac Jones. Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence have been the best prospects in this class since they were 16 years old, this hasn’t changed. Kyle Shanahan traded up to No. 3 for his guy and QB Collective standout.

The son of former Saints great Joe Horn is looked at as the top cornerback in the draft by many. The next Island Cornerback; think Jalen Ramsey, Richard Sherman, Darrelle Revis – Jaycee Horn is for real, and Bill Belichick gets a gift at No. 15 here, allowing him to team up with or replace Stephon Gilmore.

Despite a career-best 13.7 (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game average and top-notch efficiency, Davis has failed to break out in his career according to the Breakout Finder. He missed the 200-point PPR mark by less than nine points, and fell short of the 1,000 yard receiving mark by 16 yards. Truly heartbreaking. Will he pull a Devante Parker-like fifth-year breakout? Or will “Corpse” Davis return to the catacombs?

Despite an expected increase in his 92 (No. 42) Targets from 2020, Davis’ efficiency will be tough to replicate without Ryan Tannehill’s 121.1 (No. 2) True Passer Rating. A Breakout Rating below 20.0 shows that banking on him to finally break out in Year 5 is irrational. He’s a JAG receiver and isn’t helping people win games. He’s a perfect throw-in in trades to acquire your target.

We can’t discuss efficiency outliers at tight end without talking about Robert Tonyan, otherwise known as Big Bob Tonyan: the Touchdown Scoring Machine. His 2020 screamed efficiency with unsustainable production. If other fantasy managers value him highly, trade him away after his uber-efficient and productive 2020 season.

After a putrid 2020 season, what do we do with veteran Zach Ertz? He battled an ankle injury and lacked production even with a healthy Target Share. Since his stock has plummeted, he’s more of a buy-low than a sell, but don’t acquire him with the expectation of a top-5 season. If he lands in a tight-end friendly offense, he could still produce like a top-10 tight end given the landscape.

Chase Edmonds is the quintessential satellite back that earned a ton of targets and receiving production, yet barely earned many opportunities. He finished with a 37.6-percent (No. 48 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share, 68 (No. 6) Targets, and 165.0 (No. 25) Weighted Opportunities. A reminder that Weighted Opportunities increases the value of targets, which suits a player like Edmonds.

Even though he finished with 12 (No. 4) Total Touchdowns and 15.4 (No. 12) Fantasy Points per Game, Josh Jacobs relied on opportunities in 2020. He lacked efficiency with a -13.6 (No. 61) Production Premium and averaged 4.3 (No. 53) Yards Per Touch, but had a 27.5-percent (No. 12) Juke Rate. High volume and more opportunities can lead to more Evaded Tackles and Yards Created while helping bolster the Juke Rate. 

Looking ahead to 2021, there are players for whom a larger workload could make them bargains in redraft given their abilities to create their own yards. They figure prominently in the Yards Created per Touch standings. Current signs point to them having more touches in the new season. Notable players like J.K. Dobbins, whose 2.18 (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Yards Created per Touch trailed only Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.

Kenyan Drake eked his way to the RB24 in Fantasy Points per Game last season, thanks largely to his workload. He logged 192.1 (No. 15) Weighted Opportunities, but averaged 0.66 (No. 55) Yards Created per Touch. This is the eighth-lowest of the 51 running backs to earn at least 100.0 Weighted Opportunities. He is unlikely to command quite as big a workload on the Las Vegas Raiders, barring an injury to Josh Jacobs.

In redraft, it’s best to avoid both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. However, if managers are playing best ball fantasy football in 2021, then stacking Henry and Smith will be advantageous. The Patriots invested heavily in the tight end duo while opting against signing a Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller, or other top-tier wide receiver option. Expectations are that the passing offense will go through Henry and Smith, with weekly roles determined by the defenses they face.

A mistake that people make in trading for players is that they acquire players on past performances instead of future projections. As a passer, Cam Newton was putrid last season. Thank goodness his Supporting Cast Efficiency will be better in 2021 than the -3.97 (No. 22) mark it received in 2020. He is the perfect quarterback for championship contenders to target in a trade if they have uncertainty at the position.

Aaron Jones has had back-to-back seasons finishing in the top-10 among qualified running backs in Weighted Opportunities, allowing him to finish as RB4 and RB3 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 and 2019, respectively. A.J. Dillon and his 5.9-percent (33rd-percentile) College Target Share is incapable of replacing Jamaal Williams’ role in the passing game. Jones’ 242 (No. 17) Routes Run are destined to increase and will offset any carries lost to Dillon in 2021.

The sell-high window on Dillon did close when Jones resigned, but now the buy-low window on Dillon has opened. Jones, 27 years old in December, is unlikely to play out his contract which goes into his age-30 season, and would see his 2023 cap hit balloon up to $19.25 million. Find the panicked owners in leagues that are impatient and acquire Dillon at a bargain price.

In his rookie season, Laviska Shenault had a 7.18 (No. 55 among qualified wide receivers) Target Accuracy mark, along with a 5.0 (No. 83) Target Quality Rating. Yet he was still able to finish with a +27.5-percent (No. 8) Target Premium. With Trevor Lawrence likely to be the Jaguars quarterback in 2021, an upgrade in accuracy allied to his efficiency as a receiver can only mean good things in Year two.

While a member of the Texans, Will Fuller enjoyed a 7.2 (No. 4) Target Quality Rating. His +27.2-percent (No. 2) Target Premium was far and away better than his closest teammate. But Fuller now finds himself on the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, who had a 7.9 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating, as his quarterback. This despite having a single wide receiver with a positive Target Premium. This marriage could be good for all parties.