NFL

The Eagles hit the reset button the moment 2020 ended. The coaching staff was stripped down and fully replaced. Most veteran free agents did not get new contracts to stay in town. Most notably, their recently signed franchise quarterback was traded away. Regardless of Jalen Hurts being on the roster, these are the clear signs of a rebuild. The organization seems to be in the right direction, but do not expect more than five wins during the first year of a rebuild. 

The Washington Football Team has earned their name this offseason by compiling a true football team. This team has talent at every major position group and the coaching seems to be up to par. Ron Rivera and company are fine after the luckiest 7-9 playoff run in league history. The offense is loaded with weapons for Ryan Fitzpatrick to utilize in his magic performances each Sunday.

In 2020, Mark Andrews was in on 67.1-percent of the team’s offensive snaps. This was No. 26 among qualified tight ends in terms of Snap Share. His teammate Nick Boyle recorded a 66.7-percent share of the offensive playing time. But Boyle saw just 17 (No. 59) targets in his ten games. Andrews drew 89 (No. 9) targets. This worked out to a target per snap, or Hog Rate, of 4.7-percent for Boyle and 15.4 percent (No. 9) for Andrews.

Jordan Reed, whenever he took to the field, was a focal point of the 49ers offense. He only logged a 36.9-percent (No. 74) Snap Share. But he posted a position-leading 19.7 percent-Hog Rate. As a result, he was able to average 0.44 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Route Run. He benefitted from Kittle’s missing time, of course. But his Hog Rate told fantasy managers that he could be plugged in as a potential streamer thanks to his usage.

There was no organized 2021 NFL Scouting Combine; rather, each college put on their individual pro day workouts, with the vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill, and of course, the 40-yard Dash. In this piece, we’ll outline why we are adjusting the results of these 2021 pro day 40-times up by 0.05 seconds.

If widespread intuition is correct, and pro day 40-times are generally faster, then as an NFL player data authority, it is our duty to adjust pro day results to be on par with NFL Combine results, offering the sports public a true apples to apples comparison of every player at every position.  

The Colts are an upper-tier franchise and annual playoff contender. Chris Ballard built his culture, promotes from within and grows this team through the draft. Boasting a fierce offensive line and well-groomed defense makes this team one quarterback away from a championship. Carson Wentz regaining his MVP-caliber form would be the missing link. On the other hand, his history of cataclysmic failure repeating itself would sink this team to the deepest pits of despair.

Few people will argue that the Texans are the league’s worst team heading into 2021 if Deshaun Watson misses games. This team is fresh off of a complete tear down and rebuild. The offseason moves indicate one thing, the goal is not to win games. 2021 is a tryout and culture-building year with over 20 players added during free agency. This was the right move to revamp player morale.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the league’s most difficult team to beat. Their Super Bowl loss and offensive line reshuffle do not change that. They will remain dominant until Patrick Mahomes’ annual salary increases 40-plus million per year and limits roster construction. Retaining Eric Bieniemy for another year also helps. No need to overthink it on this one. 

The Broncos enter 2021 with a well-built roster. The offense is loaded with weapons and the offensive line play made a leap forward in 2020. Vic Fangio’s defense has talented playmakers at all three levels. The return of most significant starters and coaching personnel suggests good year-to-year consistency by this organization. Team and coaching personnel that have years to develop together have an edge on Sundays.

Coming into the league, Davante Adams ran a 4.56 (45th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard Dash, hardly setting the world on fire. He used his route running to become an elite receiver, as evidenced by his 2.13 (No. 9) Target Separation score. His ability to put space in between himself and a defender, as well as having a supremely accurate QB, is what makes him a good receiver.

Will Fuller looks to become the WR1 in Miami, where he will link up with Tua Tagovailoa and his 7.9 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating. His 1.77 (No. 35) Target Separation will be improved upon in a better offense for his skill set. It should be exciting to see how he does in his new home. 

Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense may be one dimensional, but most teams can not stop them even if they know the gameplan. Jackson’s raw talent and playmaking ability is that good. More playmakers at receiver would be nice, and they may draft some. Expect this team to come to play every Sunday and compete directly with the Browns for control of the AFC North. 

Joe Burrow’s protection will improve with Jonah Williams returning and some new additions along the line, but they didn’t add a backup quarterback in case he needs to be eased back. They added Trey Hendrickson and six new defensive backs, but at the cost of Carl Lawson and William Jackson. Cincinnati will be better in the future, but the win total will remain low in 2021 as Burrow recovers.

Many fans will cite Baltimore’s regression from 2019 to 2020 as the model for what to expect this year from the Bills. That is a lazy take. Buffalo will continue to succeed because unlike the Ravens, they succeeded through the air with an emphasis on Josh Allen’s arm talent, not his rushing ability. The Bills will be the hardest team to beat on Sundays outside of the league’s elite

The chance to improve at quarterback with the NFL Draft’s No. 2 selection places the Jets firmly on the path to relevancy. The notable difference between 2021’s free agent haul and that of previous failed years is the emphasis on upside. Rather than overspending on overhyped names like Le’Veon Bell, C.J. Mosley, and Trumaine Johnson, the Jets targeted undervalued pros and potential breakout stars.

The Cowboys led the NFL with 42.7 Team Pass Plays Per Game and a 2.51 Pace of Play. Before Dak Prescott’s injury, he ranked highly in a number of efficiency metrics with a +18.8 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Production Premium and 8.0 (No. 6) Adjusted Yards Per Attempt. A -4.77 (No. 27) Game Script mark indicated they often played from behind with their poor defense, which will lead to high passing opportunities once again in 2021 if that unit continues to struggle. 

We have Josh Allen out here exploding in 2020 in all the metrics even though Buffalo ranked lowly with a 2.14 (No. 28) Pace of Play. Buffalo averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and Allen finished with 4,546 (No. 5) Passing Yards and 37 (No. 5) Passing Touchdowns. With the leap in fantasy production and efficiency paired with his rushing production, expect Allen to dominate again in 2021.

Tyler Lockett’s cap hit will be higher than any receiver that has signed a contract in the past twelve months. Among all NFL players, he will count more on the 2024 salary cap than Aaron Donald, the DPOY in three of the last four seasons, will for the division-rival Los Angeles Rams. Expect the Seahawks to move on from him after 2023 before he enters his age-32 season.

Can Lockett maintain his efficiency with another high-volume passing game role in 2021? His 75.8-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Catch Rate, 93.5-percent (No. 9) True Catch Rate and low 3.8-percent (No. 60) Drop Rate didn’t leave fantasy points on the field. Capitalize on his 2020 season that saw high usage, WR1 productivity, and efficiency unusual for players that see the volume that he received.