NFL

After four seasons with the Titans, Corey Davis exploded in 2020 partly due to his high efficiency. Not surprising since we mentioned Ryan Tannehill as one of the efficiency outliers at the quarterback position. Davis interestingly displayed great per-target efficiency, yet scored five (No. 35 among qualified wide receivers) Total Touchdowns at a 7.7-percent Touchdown Rate. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Jets offense runs as efficiently as Tennessee’s.

Jerry Jeudy earned a decent amount of opportunities, but the brutal efficiency metrics stood out; among them a -16.5 (No. 82) Production Premium, 7.6 (No. 76) Yards Per Target and 1.38 (No. 102) Fantasy Points Per Target. It’s a big IF, but if Drew Lock improves and we have a healthy Courtland Sutton, then that should help Jeudy in 2021. However, it’s difficult to imagine the opportunities increasing, so hopefully he’s more efficient. Attempt to buy low in dynasty leagues. 

Cleveland Browns cornerback Denzel Ward drew 80 (No. 80 among qualified cornerbacks) targets in the 2020 season. Bengals cornerback LeShaun Sims, a lesser-known player than Ward, drew just 78 (No. 78) looks in 13 games. Sims was targeted on a similar scale to Ward. Therefore, these players are close in production, right? Why, hello there Mr. Strawman. Coverage Rating points out that this could not be further from the truth.

The Lions traded away Darius Slay in the hopes of sliding Jeff Okudah seamlessly into his spot in the defensive backfield. This hasn’t worked so far. Okudah only played nine games as a rookie. But he was targeted at a 24.8-percent (No. 6) rate. Passers completed 74.2-percent of their passes looking his way. The next pass he breaks up will be his first as a pro. Only the aforementioned LeShaun Sims posted a lower Coverage Rating than Okudah’s -29.7 showing.

The Panthers needs help all over the place, but they take a shot on a franchise QB early in the draft. The team misses out on the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes and opt for Zach Wilson, whose rocket arm can unlock their offense after a low-ceiling 2020 campaign from Teddy Bridgewater.

The Saints need to re-tool on offense in the coming years whether Drew Brees retires or not. Taking Kadarius Toney would give them another receiving option after Tre’Quan Smith just refused to break out, and give whoever quarterbacks the team in 2021 a viable triple option of pass catchers in Toney, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. Not forgetting Adam Trautman, of course.

If it seemed like Aaron Rodgers threw a passing touchdown on every drive, well, he almost did. Rodgers finished 2020 with 48 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) Passing Touchdowns on 34.2 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Even Green Bay’s 2.00 (two plays per minute) Pace of Play ranked dead last in the NFL. All of this screams “efficiency outlier.”

Given that he falls into the low-efficiency outlier category, it’s not surprising that Baker Mayfield “boasted” a middling 0.45 (No. 18) Fantasy Points Per Dropback average and a -7.5 (No. 23) Production Premium. If the dominant running game remains, which seems likely, he could improve in the efficiency metrics with the play-action game. With projected low passing volume, he’ll need to rely on efficiency to produce anything better than middling or back-end QB2 numbers.

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys placed the franchise tag ($31.41 million) on Dak Prescott for him to prove himself as a franchise quarterback. A horrific broken ankle shortened his season. So why did the team take a perceived risk on a player coming off a catastrophic injury? Despite my slight mathematical error, the Cowboys could not afford the cap hit of a franchise tag on Prescott in 2021.

Want to see the fantasy football impact of a franchise quarterback? Look no further than the team’s top two pass-catchers last season, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. In Prescott’s five starts, Cooper finished with four top-24 wide receiver performances, and Lamb finished with three top-24 wide receiver performances. Both played in all 16 games; in 11 games without Prescott, Cooper had four top-24 wide receiver performances and Lamb only had one top-24 wide receiver performance.

To those familiar with college football, it should come as no surprise that Saquon Barkley sits atop the historical Breakout Ratings for RBs. A three-year starter in college, who had over 1,000 yards on the ground each season, brought in 54 passes for 632 yards as a junior, and ran a 4.40 flat in the 40-yard Dash. The 99th percentile SPARQ-x athlete and No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Yes, that guy is No. 1 all-time.

Certainly a bet on upside when Washington selected him in the NFL Draft’s third round, my modeling efforts found the Antonio Gibson pick to be savvy given that he has a slightly higher Breakout Rating than the average third-round pick. The Breakout Finder recognized his potential were he to land in a starting role, and he definitely impressed in Year 1, recording over 1,000 total yards and 11 rushing TDs.

Not all Unrealized Air Yards are created equal. In 2020, Calvin Ridley led all qualified wide receivers with 968 Unrealized Air Yards. The player with the second-most (965) was Denver Broncos rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy. He logged 1,536 (No. 6) Air Yards thanks in no small part to his steady diet of 25 (No. 7) Deep Targets. Why the huge disparity between these two players? Putting it mildly, quarterbacks matter.

A player posting a high share of Unrealized Air Yards is not necessarily a player to immediately shy away from. A target is, after all, earned by that player being good at catching the ball. That is why Jerry Jeudy is a bounceback candidate in 2021, especially if the Broncos can upgrade their quarterback. Calvin Ridley finished as the WR4 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 with a quarterback who was not among the elite in terms of accuracy.

With Hunter Henry leaving in free agency, the tight end room is looking scarce for the first time in almost 20 years for the Chargers. Pairing Kyle Pitts with Justin Herbert is like pairing Philip Rivers with Antonio Gates. It just works.

With ongoing rumors of distrust in Drew Lock leaking from the Broncos organization, a trade is on the horizon. Denver leaps into the No. 2 pick hoping to finally put their quarterback issues to rest after five long years.

Carson Wentz is a value in dynasty leagues because the perception of him is that he’s damaged goods. Those who have him in dynasty should hold. His value is the lowest it’s been in his career. He has one year in a better situation to turn his NFL career around. If struggles in 2021, it doesn’t change the value that cratered in 2020. But if he puts up a solid campaign in his age-29 season, then he regains significant trade value.

Don’t worry about a drop-off in Miles Sanders’ receiving volume; his 4.33 targets per game were identical in games that Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts started. After a disappointing 2020 season, he’s set to be a high-volume running back with better rushing opportunities provided by his run-threat quarterback, while still being involved in the passing game.

Carolina is a team with many needs, but also an exciting young core of playmakers on both sides of the ball. Second-year head coach Matt Rhule makes a splash by selecting national champion and Davey O’Brien Award winner Mac Jones. He played an outstanding senior season against an all-SEC schedule and further displayed his talents in front of Rhule and company at the Senior Bowl, which was the deciding factor for Jones over Trey Lance.

For two years, Terry McLaurin has taken the best of what opposing defenses could throw at him and the worst of what the WFT could provide him at QB, and has still come out the other end as a legitimate number one receiving threat. With the best QB prospects off the board, Washington finally adds another receiver to relieve some pressure from Scary Terry in the dynamic Rondale Moore.